From the Americas Society/Council of the Americas. AS/COA Online's news brief examines the major—as well as some of the overlooked—events and stories occurring across the Americas. Check back every Wednesday for the weekly roundup.
Sec Clinton Pushes OAS Recommendations in Haiti
On an official visit to Haiti, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reiterated U.S. support for the OAS recommendation to remove Jude Célestin—the governing party’s pick—from the second round of presidential elections. Clinton said she would discuss with Haitian leaders how to move forward with the delayed runoff election, and she denied rumors that the U.S. would suspend aid to Haiti if the government did not follow the OAS recommendation.
Last week, the Haitian government set March 20 as the date for the runoff election.
Haiti to Issue Passport to Aristide
The Haitian government agreed to issue ousted President Jean-Bertrand Aristide a diplomatic passport, his lawyer Ira Kurzban said Monday. Haitian President René Préval has refused to approve Aristide’s passport requests for years, but General Secretary for the Presidency Fritz Longchamp told Reuters that Préval and the Council of Ministers decided to change their position. Aristide’s party, the Fanmi Lavalas, is the largest in the country but is banned by electoral authorities.
Haitians Question Role of NGOs
The nongovernmental organizations that have flocked to Haiti by the hundreds continue to face scrutiny from the country’s leaders, according to a feature report in The Washington Post. Even the groups themselves have criticized the high turnover and lack of coordination and transparency that has characterized charitable groups operating in Haiti, the report says. Foreign donors continue to prefer donating to NGOs rather than the government, however, due to Haiti’s reputation for corruption.
Feeling Egyptian in Latin America
Global Voices aggregates opinions from various blogs and newspapers about whether protests in Egypt could spark uprisings in Latin America. Bloggings by Boz suggests that “democracy is the expectation rather than the exception” in Latin America while Central American Politics suggests Bolivia and Ecuador would be the countries most likely to face protests. Two Weeks Notice compares and contrasts Egypt with Nicaragua.
The auditing firm Ernst & Young recently surprised all of Mexico (and possibly the world) with the results published in their “Winning in a polycentric world” report, which ranks economies based on their level of globalization.
In this ranking, which EY coordinates with the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) think tank, Mexico is placed in a very respectable #36, surpassing China (39) Japan (42) and Brazil (46) among others as “most globalized.” Hong Kong, Ireland and Singapore rank at the top of the index. The United States does not fare are well as one would expect, placed as #28, only 8 slots from its neighbor to the south.
Why does the Ernst & Young report throw out these unexpected figures and why is it so important? Granted, there are many types of studies and rankings that provide different lists. However, what makes “Winning in a polycentric world” a very relevant report and an important piece to further study, is the fact that this is one of the few reports that measures globalization in relative terms, linked to the size of the economy measured by GDP. This is done to some extent, in order to level the playing field.
The report has 20 indicators grouped under five broad categories: movement of goods and services, movement of capital and finance, exchange of technology and ideas, movement of labor and cultural integration. Thanks mostly to strengthened economic ties (mostly fueled by NAFTA) and improvements in our financial and banking systems, Mexico gets high points for trade and movement of capital. If these were the only variables to analyze, the report would paint a profitable future for Mexico. However, the category in which the country gets its lowest grades is technology and innovation and that is very bad news.
In the book As the Future Catches You, Juan Enriquez Cabot makes a strong case for the importance of innovation and harvesting ideas as opposed to relying on commodities and primary resources to boost an economy. He looks at where most of the added value in the supply chain lies in answering the question “how can countries rich in natural resources get so poor during this century?”. Enriquez wrote the book more than 10 years ago but we can prove he was right when we see Hong Kong, Ireland and Singapore at the top of Ernst & Young’s rankings mostly due to their ability to turn a profit without large natural resources.
With just over two months to go before voting in Peru’s presidential elections on April 10, candidates are now devoting their attention to a social concern that has not been a front-and-center issue in national politics. The focus on same-sex marriage comes on the heels of disparaging remarks made on January 24 by Bishop Emeritus of Chimbote Luis Bambarén that were directed at the gay community. He also stated that discussion on “useless things like gay marriage” was a ploy by politicians to garner more votes.
Currently leading in polls, former president Alejandro Toledo of the Perú Posible party has made statements suggesting that he is open to civil unions and working “toward an inclusive society.” Pedro Pablo Kuczynski of Alianza por el Gran Cambio and Keiko Fujimori of Fuerza 2011 have both declared themselves in favor of civil unions as well. According to recent CPI and Datum polls, Toledo is in the lead by only a few percentage points over Luis Castañeda of Solidaridad Nacional with Keiko Fujimori in third place. Similar statements have been made by Manuel Rodríguez Cuadros of Fuerza Social. Mr. Cuadros has declared that he is in favor of reforming Peru’s laws to allow for same-sex marriages. Other candidates have not gone as far. Among them, Catañeda has proposed inheritance benefits while calling changing current laws to permit same-sex unions “a crazy… idea.”
Political analysts in Peru note that the gay vote played a key role in the recent election of Susana Villarán as mayor of Lima and so will now play a similar role in the presidential election. According to Fernando Vivas of BBC Mundo, the increasing role of the gay vote in Peru has helped to raise the issue of gay rights above other topics like illiteracy and poverty eradication in the election debate.
The unexpected arrival of former dictator Jean-Claude “Baby Doc” Duvalier has incited another plot twist in the tragic-comedy known as Haitian politics. Duvalier’s reasons and/or ambitions for this return has elicited endless speculation from the moment his Air France flight touched down in Port-au-Prince. One of the first writers to solve this mystery was Huge Desrameaux. Writing in the Miami Herald, Desrameaux revealed that Duvalier had returned to Haiti in a quixotic attempt to reclaim what’s left of his ill-gotten fortune, which is currently being withheld by Swiss authorities. These fortunes will now be easier for the Haitian authorities to reclaim after the Duvalier Law—a Swiss law that eases the ability of a country to retrieve ill-gotten gains—went into effect today.
In spite of Duvalier’s efforts at arguing that his motives are more benevolent (he’s allegedly returned to help with earthquake relief and to donate his remaining bounty to the Red Cross) the audacity of returning to the island that he and his father plundered requires a voluminous amount of hubris. After all, did Duvalier seriously believe he could return home to Haiti and everyone would turn the other cheek?
Duvalier’s impromptu homecoming also offers another opportunity to debate the efficacy of President René Préval’s tenure in office. “Baby Doc” may be the spectacle du jour, but the real question that Haitians must address at this moment is, what is its post-Préval future?
Havana Provincial Court sentenced Wilfredo Castillo Donate, the director of Havana Psychiatric Hospital, to 15 years in prison on Monday for negligence in the deaths of 26 patients during a cold spell last year. Twelve other staff members of Cuba’s largest mental health institution also received sentences ranging from 5 to 14 years in prison.
The 26 patients died of hypothermia and other ailments last January during a spell of cold winter weather that dipped as low as 38 degrees Fahrenheit (4 degrees Celsius)—unusual for Cuba’s tropical climate. The prosecutor argued that despite the hospitals dilapidated condition, the staff had sufficient resources in its possession, such as extra blankets and available warmer rooms, to prevent the deaths.
Critics of the government claim that the patient deaths expose shortcomings in Cuba’s free health care system, which has been a point of pride for the Castro regime. Members of the convicted hospital staff have 10 days to appeal their sentences.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton visited Port-au-Prince yesterday to meet with Haitian politicians regarding the ongoing presidential elections. She met with incumbent president René Préval and the three leading candidates after the November 2010 vote: former first lady Mirlande Manigat, construction executive Jude Célestin and popular musician Michel Martelly.
The preliminary results were originally contested when Martelly—long expected to advance to a second round—lost out to Célestin to advance to the runoff. After much international pressure, the Organization of American States (OAS) conducted an investigation, and issued a report recommending that Martelly be included in the runoff instead of Célestin. Secretary Clinton said yesterday that the Obama administration supports the OAS’ findings. Haiti’s Provisional Electoral Council is expected to issue its final ruling on Wednesday.
Although the presidential runoff is scheduled for March 20, with results to be announced on April 16, Préval is constitutionally required to leave office on February 7. However, an emergency bill passed by Haiti’s parliament last year allows Préval to stay in office until May 14. Célestin, a member of Préval’s Inité party and widely viewed as his political protégé, has in recent days rebuffed Préval’s calls to withdraw from the race.
In addition, a Department of State press release noted that Secretary Clinton visited a cholera treatment clinic to monitor ongoing reconstruction efforts after last year’s earthquake.
In the last two months, the world has witnessed a wave of diplomatic support for a Palestinian state from a region that is continuing to extend its foreign policy imprint: Latin America. But will this trend yield any measurable progress toward a two-state Palestinian-Israeli agreement—or produce a negligible effect on Palestine’s quest for full autonomy and sovereignty?
Although Costa Rica, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela fully recognized a sovereign Palestinian state before the end of last year, Brazil’s decision to throw its diplomatic weight behind Palestine in December 2010 initiated a chain reaction through the region. Given Brazil’s economic prominence, its South American neighbors likely saw low political risks in following Brasília’s lead. For instance, Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner sent a letter to Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas only five days after then-Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva did so. Bolivia, Ecuador, Guyana, Suriname and Uruguay have since issued similar statements.
After Chile formally recognized a Palestinian state earlier this month, Palestinian officials suggested Paraguay and Peru would shortly follow suit—the latter of which acquiesced this week. Peru was widely expected to acknowledge a Palestinian state in anticipation of the third Summit of South American-Arab Countries (Cumbre América del Sur-Países Árabes), which will be hosted in Lima beginning February 12.
This domino effect begs the question: Why now? The Palestine Liberation Organization was established back in 1964 and Abbas has been the PA president for over six years—so there has not been a recent regime change. Most likely, it appears that Latin America was simply fed up with the lack of progress in Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations. Despite the optimism that persisted in September 2010 with the re-launching of the first direct talks since the 2007 Annapolis Conference, those negotiations quickly broke off—resulting in the present stasis.
Following President Obama’s call for the U.S. to “pursue agreements with Panama and Colombia” in his State of the Union address this week, Colombian Vice President Angelino Garzón said in Washington DC that he is convinced there is a majority in Congress to approve the deal. "We hope and we stress that 2011 is the year the U.S. Congress approves the pact…there is no middle road on this,” according to Garzón.
The renewed focus on passage of the U.S.-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement—originally signed in November 2006—is a high priority for U.S.-Colombian relations. It is also imperative for job creation in the United States. As noted by Eric Farnsworth in the newly published AQ, “the refusal of the U.S. to pass its own bilateral agreement with Colombia were the primary causes of the sharp drop in U.S. agricultural exports to Colombia.” He further warns of this continuing once the Colombia-Canada agreement comes into force.
An AQ interactive analysis also highlights the correlation, or lack of it, behind how members of Congress vote on free-trade agreements and the resulting increase in export benefits seen by the state due to passage. It presents state-by-state export values to Colombia, showing why passage of this agreement can help to boost local economies.
Currently, over 90 percent of U.S. imports from Colombia enter duty-free, but U.S. exports to Colombia face tariffs up to 35 percent.
By all accounts, 2010 was a challenging time for Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper on the foreign policy front.
The low point came when Canada failed to win a non-permanent seat in a secret vote at the United Nations Security Council in October, the first time since 1948. Canada had held the prestigious two-year position virtually nonstop every 10 years or so since the early days of the United Nations.
As expected, Germany easily one of two Western Bloc regional seats but most observers had not seen the duel shaping up between Canada and Portugal for the second seat. To avoid a humiliating defeat, Canada withdrew from the race after the second ballot.
The outcome sent shockwaves across the nation.
Opposition parties labelled the loss a blow to Canada’s international reputation. Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff attributed the rebuke to the Harper government’s ideological positions, incompetence and neglect of African issues. He reminded the government 80 percent of the Security Council’s work is focused on Africa.
In what some are suggesting was a strategic move to keep a party out of power, a candidate in the race for governor in Mexico’s Guerrero state has dropped out and endorsed his opponent. On Wednesday, Marcos Parra Gomez of the Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) announced that he would instead encourage his followers to support Ángel Aguirre of the Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD). Aguirre is in a close race with Manuel Anorve, the mayor of Acapulco and member of the previously-dominant Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI). Elections will be held on Sunday, January 30.
In Guerrero, Acapulco is the major port for automobile exports to the Pacific region and critical for Mexico’s ability to take full advantage of the “over 25 trade and investment agreements signed from 1985 to 2009,” as noted by Eva Paus in the Winter AQ (released today). Improving security will be a priority for the new governor.
In his announcement—just five days before the election—Parra said he “seeks the best thing for the people of Guerrero.” The decision was made in conjunction with the PAN’s National Executive Committee, whose officials have often emphasized the need to prevent the PRI from returning to power and who last year forged coalitions with the PRD in other states to this end.
Responding to the announcement in a press conference, a representative from the PRI’s Executive National Committee said the new alliance “goes beyond the ambition for power for power’s sake.” Spokesman Roberto Padilla Márquez said the state of Guerrero should not be seen “as a piece in a game of chess” to ultimately win the presidency of the Republic of Mexico.
From the Americas Society/Council of the Americas. AS/COA Online's news brief examines the major—as well as some of the overlooked—events and stories occurring across the Americas. Check back every Wednesday for the weekly roundup.
SOTU: Obama Announces LatAm Trip
During Tuesday night’s annual State of the Union address, U.S. President Barack Obama announced plans to travel to Brazil, Chile, and El Salvador in March. “[T]his will be an important opportunity to recharge and reset U.S. relations with the hemisphere,” writes COA’s Eric Farnsworth in the Americas Quarterly blog, noting that immigration and trade were the two other regional issues Obama touched on. Despite the fact that the president suggested he would “pursue agreements” with Colombia and Panama, observers noted that Obama did not spell out a timetable to win congressional approval of the two free-trade deals.
Visit AmericasQuarterly.org January 27 to access the Winter 2011 issue covering free trade and market access.
SecClinton Travels to Mexico for Bilateral Boost
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton traveled to Guanajuato, Mexico, January 24 for a meeting with Foreign Secretary Patricia Espinosa. According to the press conference held after the meeting, the two secretaries hit on a range of topics—from Mexico’s leadership on climate issues to bilateral economic ties to Haiti. Inevitably, the subject of Clinton’s comments on Mexico’s violent drug war attracted the greatest press attention. The secretary voiced support for the Calderón government’s offensive against organized crime, noted a $500 million commitment from Washington this year to support Mexico’s efforts, and compared Mexico’s struggle with crime to New York’s two decades ago. The Christian Science Monitor focused in particular on Clinton’s praise for Mexico’s efforts toward judicial reform.
Read an AS/COA Online analysis on Clinton’s latest trip to Mexico.
U.S. President Barack Obama announced in his State of the Union address last night plans to travel to Brazil, Chile and El Salvador this coming March “to forge new alliances for progress in the Americas.” Obama is scheduled to arrive in El Salvador on March 23 after first visiting Brazil and then Chile. The March trip will be the first visit to South America by a sitting U.S. President since George W. Bush visited Brazil, Uruguay, Colombia, Guatemala, and Mexico in March 2007.
This will mark the president’s first trip to South America as either a private citizen or head of state. However, Obama did travel to Trinidad and Tobago to attend the 34-nation Summit of the Americas in 2009 where he pledged to re-engage the region. Of the three countries Obama plans to visit, he last met with President Mauricio Funes of El Salvador in March in Washington DC where the two expressed a desire to work together to combat organized crime and drug trafficking.
The decision to visit these countries is timely given the recent presidential elections in both Brazil and Chile and their roles as economic leaders in the region, writes Eric Farnsworth in the AQ blog. Both Brazil and Chile have elected new presidents in the last 12 months.
The visit also comes as the newly sworn-in 112th U.S. Congress recently appointed Connie Mack as Chairman of the Sub-Committee on the Western Hemisphere. But his seeming unwillingness to engage Latin America on its terms poses a challenge to the administration’s desire to re-engage with the region, writes Christopher Sabatini in the AQ blog.
The president spoke at least three times this evening during his State of the Union on issues of importance to the Western Hemisphere: immigration, trade and his desire to travel to Latin America in March.
He was strong on immigration, saying he is willing to work with anyone to address immigration issues comprehensively as a priority. That's good news and shows that immigration reform isn't dead despite the failure of the Dream Act in the lame duck congressional session late last year. Hopefully Republicans will take him up on it, or else they risk losing Hispanics politically for at least a generation, perhaps more. 2011 could finally be the year, if republicans will play ball.
On trade, the president spoke of working with Panama and Colombia to get an agreement that supports U.S. workers. We already have such agreements, though, since the agreements as drafted would open markets to us in the same way ours is already open to them. It’s a matter of fairness, and also the ability to export more, consistent with the president’s goal of doubling exports by 2014.
Siete, dicen, es el número cabalístico que marca la primera crisis matrimonial seria, de esas que acaban en ruptura definitiva. Pero dado que el tiempo es hoy una categoría tan relativa y de cada vez menos duración, las crisis conyugales suelen comenzar bastante antes. Eso parece haber sucedido en Bolivia con el matrimonio de Evo y el pueblo a cinco años de iniciado su gobierno. La luna de miel se ha acabado de la peor manera: con el mayor gasolinazo de la historia reciente como regalo de Navidad. Digamos, una torpeza.
La reacción del pueblo fue entonces furibunda. Evo no se lo esperaba, confiado, cómo no, en ese 67 por ciento de respaldo popular que en 2008 lo ratificó en la Presidencia y luego lo reeligió por cinco años más en diciembre de 2009. Digamos que esa pareja -Evo y el pueblo- confiaba uno en el amor del otro. Así, llegada esta Navidad ni el pueblo esperaba un gasolinazo del 80 por ciento ni Evo que quemaran su vivo retrato en las calles y quisieran echarlo a patadas de la casa como hicieron con Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada en 2003 y encima ¡esos mismos actores!: la ciudad de El Alto pero además, Oruro, Potosí y el Chapare. Es decir, sus mayores plazas electorales de donde salen gran parte de los llamados “movimientos sociales”, en su mayoría indígenas y sectores populares del occidente del país. Digamos sus amadas.
Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos is in Paris this week before heading to the World Economic Forum and at the top of his agenda is expanding trade and investment ties with France and the European Union as a whole. Today, prior to meeting with President Nicolas Sarkozy on Wednesday, Santos met with French business leaders to discuss commerce opportunities. The Colombian president called attention to Colombia’s economic growth and the importance of expanded trade opportunities: "For us, Europe is still fundamental. We have negotiated a free trade agreement with Europe, and I take this opportunity to ask everyone to help us so that this treaty will get adopted as soon as possible by the European Parliament and the parliaments of each country."
He later had lunch with French Senate President Gerarch Larcher and spoke about plans to "further expand [bilateral] cooperation." Santos is also scheduled to visit a ship-building yard in Saint-Nazaire.
In comments that will likely be echoed during a speech later this week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, the Colombian president noted to French business leaders that "ten years ago Colombia was a country that many catalogued as a failed state" but "the country has changed 180 degrees.”
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton is traveling today to the central Mexican city of Guanajuato for one day of bilateral talks with her counterpart, Foreign Minister Patricia Espinosa. According to a Department of State press release, the main discussion points will cover joint efforts in the areas of organized crime, economic collaboration, border security, and climate change reform post-COP 16 in Cancún. Following her discussions with Minister Espinosa, Secretary Clinton will meet President Felipe Calderón in Mexico City.
The timing of Secretary Clinton’s visit is critical as Mexico continues to suffer from drug cartel-related violence throughout the country. More than 34,000 people have died in the last four years due to organized crime. President Calderón has mounted an aggressive government effort to stave off narco-violence, despite nearly 16,000 of the 34,000 deaths having occurred in 2010 alone.
In light of this, the Colombian army has begun training Mexican police officers to contain drug gangs. Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos notes that: “Mexico has what we had some years ago, which are very powerful cartels. What we can provide is the experience that we have had dismantling those cartels, training intelligence officers, [and] training judicial police.”
Minister Rodrigo Rivera has announced that in the first week of February he will travel to Washington DC to consult his U.S. counterpart, Defense Secretary Robert Gates, on Colombia’s U.S.-backed efforts to combat drug trafficking.
During his visit, Mr. Rivera’s discussions will focus on violence sparked by nacrotrafficking organizations. The administration of Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos has been retooling its counternarcotics strategies since the beginning the year when two students from a prestigious Bogotá university were found murdered by suspected drug traffickers near a beach on Colombia's Caribbean coast.
Mr. Rivera’s U.S. trip will follow his visit next week to Venezuela, where he will hold meetings with Venezuelan Defense Minister Jose Mata Figueroa to discuss border security and the possible intensification of military border operations to fight illegal armed groups.
In Mexico, most medium-size and large companies provide their employees vales de despensa, or grocery coupons, as part of their monthly benefits to workers. These were originally instituted to provide tax breaks to both businesses and individuals. The value of grocery coupons is not declared as part of one’s personal income (so it is not taxed) but in most cases, it does account for a significant amount of money. Vales de despensa are an accepted form of currency in supermarkets, gas stations and even restaurants.
Now, this week, the Diario de la Federación (Official government gazette) announced that our Federal Congress published yet more proof of their nearsightedness by issuing a new law regulating the use of vales de despensa, the Ley de Ayuda Alimentaria para los Trabajadores. As part of its undeclared war on big business (proof of which is in every recent tax reform), Congress decided to restrict the use of vales de despensa and prohibit the purchase of alcohol and tobacco with this currency (Article 12, section II).
For people with a small cash flow, this inherently means that government is making it even harder for them to exercise their free will and purchase what they please in a grocery store. Government already has a special tax for alcohol and tobacco, which came into effect on January 1, 2011, and forced price increases in these products (transfering the tax imposition directly to customers). In cigarettes for example, this new tax implied a 25 percent price increase from one day to the next. It is self-explanatory that the intention is for government to try to squeeze the most it can from its captive tax contributors (as opposed to actually doing something about the other 90 percent of the people who evade taxes and/or are part of the informal economy).
The “healthy diet” excuse does not hold ground, at least in the case of alcohol. Countless studies (here’s one) from international scientists have proven time and time again that in moderation, alcohol can actually make your heart stronger and improve your memory. Obesity, caused by lack of exercise and the ingestion of junk food, and not alcohol, is Mexico’s top health concern today. If Congress wanted to be logical about it, they would have taxed certain food products including maize and corn tortillas (which by the way are part of our subsidized foods). A better physical education program in public schools would also do a lot more in favor of combating obesity than further restricting the purchase of a bottle of red wine.
Real concerns about government debt and deficits are bringing politicians to a moment of truth. Whether you are a recently elected member of Congress or a finance minister in Canada or in a Canadian province about to deliver the next budget, you know the exercise will be painful and the road arduous. Earlier this month I attended Governor Andrew Cuomo’s State of the State Address and it was clear that the efforts to reduce the budget deficit will require a sustained commitment over a number of years. This message is being repeated across the land and we can expect President Obama to present essentially the same approach at the State of the Union Address next week.
Despite the well deserved praise by observers of Canada’s performance in the Great Recession, Canadian political leaders are facing similar obligations. After over a decade of balanced and surplus budgets allowing for the reduction of the public debt, governments at both the federal and provincial levels are facing significant deficits. While the ratio of debt to GDP is more favourable in Canada than in the U.S., the problem remains the same—an increasing gap between lower revenue coming in and increased spending in entitlement programs.
Remedies in both jurisdictions vary from a call to reductions in spending to increasing revenues without affecting economic activity. With economic recovery modest in both Canada and the U.S., political leaders are reluctant to stifle demand from consumers by raising taxes and seem to be turning increasingly their attention to cutting spending. In the U.S., a presidential commission headed by Democrat Erskine Bowles and Republican Alan Simpson has proposed a combination of massive cuts and a need for tax reform. In Canada, social programs are coming under greater scrutiny. The caveat is the risk to confuse cutting waste, eliminating inefficient or outmoded programs, or reforming existing programs with stopping investment in future and necessary infrastructures projects needed for a competitive economy in the future. Countries like China and Brazil are investing massively in building roads, high speed rail, energy related projects. China itself spent 9 percent of GDP in infrastructure building in 2009. The temptation to balance the books can lead to a failure to invest in necessary public goods and it represents the biggest danger to our long term prosperity.
Investing in high speed rail in the U.S., building our energy potential in Canada, rebuilding roads, improving airports, revamping seaports, and building transmission lines should be considered as vital to future generations. It is my belief that it is possible to rein in government spending, invest in public goods and build for a more prosperous future. History is on our side.
Consider our case in Québec. After close to a decade of balanced budgets, the Québec budget was back in deficit territory by 2007-2008. What has the Québec government chosen to do? It decided to invest in rebuilding the infrastructure networks as it anticipated the economic slowdown in 2007. It then produced a five-year plan to return to a balanced budget while continuing to invest massively in developing hydroelectric power plants in northern Québec. In the coming months, it will announce the North Plan aimed at developing 72 percent of its land mass (nearly twice the size of Texas!), north of the 49° with investments in mining, energy and sustainable tourism. The approximate cost of the project over the next 25 years will be $50 billion.
Currently, Québec’s economy is among the most performing in North America with an unemployment rate two percentage points below the U.S. and for the first time in decades it is lower than the Canadian national average and the neighbouring province of Ontario. Granted, Québec is not unique in this approach, but the fiscal hawks would have advised otherwise. Québec’s economic outlook remains promising, but more important, Québec continues to invest in its economic infrastructure in the firm belief that prosperity for future generations is best achieved by finding the balance between fiscal management and creating wealth.
Creating wealth provides economic development and stimulus for economic activity. Both Canada and the U.S. have acted in that direction following other difficult economic slowdowns. This will be the challenge facing decision makers in the 2011-2012 budget cycle.
Meeting on Wednesday at the La Moneda presidential palace in Santiago, Chile, Presidents Sebastián Piñera of Chile and Alan García of Peru agreed to respect the ruling of the International Court of Justice regarding their dispute over maritime borders and to focus on greater economic integration. Appearing before reporters in a lengthy meeting and treating each other as friends, the leaders said their two nations are currently experiencing their “best period” in bilateral relations and that the lawsuit must not hinder their achievement of common goals, such as economic development and the protection of natural resources.
Piñera’s stance of separating the maritime dispute from the rest of Chile’s relations with Peru signals a departure from predecessor Michelle Bachelet’s approach. For his part, García praised Chile’s economic model and pointed out Peru’s own 9 percent growth and 2 percent inflation in 2010. Both he and Piñera said competition between the two countries on economic development and employment generation served as a healthy incentive for growth.
Economic partnership featured heavily in the meeting between the two leaders. Chile, whose investors have poured $9 billion into Peru since 1990, is the latter’s largest foreign investor and third-largest trading partner, after the United States and China. In 2010, trade between Chile and Peru reached $3 billion, up nearly 50 percent from the previous year. President Garcia said he was confident the economic alliance with Chile would have “enormous significance” for gross domestic product growth and employment generation in both countries.
Also during the meeting, the two heads of state signed a memorandum of understanding to carry out anti-drug measures and a second one to implement an integrated control policy for border traffic.
When songwriter Billy Joel penned this classic song about New York City, it had a big nostalgic overtone. In short, it is very hard to be away from New York City for long. The new Governor of New York, Andrew Cuomo, has sounded a similar tone about New York State and its past leadership role among the 50 states—a time when the Empire State was the “go-to” state and not a “move-from” state.
With statistics at hand, the Governor pointed a somber picture of where New York State is and convincingly argued that the state was at a crossroads. Lagging behind in economic development, healthcare performance, education results on a national level and along with the highest taxation in the nation, he has argued for reinventing, reorganizing and redesigning the state and its government. He has also promised to make the necessary cuts—about $10 billion—in the next budget, due within a few weeks. Finally, he has sounded a realistic tone that clearly indicated that his program and agenda were not a short term, quick fix approach. Rather, it would require an effort over the long haul and would involve both the executive and legislative branches of the government.
It is heady stuff. Using impressive technological support and an unconventional venue, Cuomo demonstrated to his audience at his swearing-in ceremony a command of the situation, and more importantly, he engaged his most crucial partners, Assembly Speaker and fellow Democrat, Sheldon Silver, and new Senate Republican Majority Leader, Dean Skelos in the exercise. The message was clear: we are all on the same ship sailing in one direction.
At the swearing in, both Speaker Silver and Senate Majority Leader Skelos struck a tone of cooperation and promised to work together looking for common solutions, encouraging bipartisanship, and displaying a firm commitment to work beyond the partisan divide. The bar will be high and there will be many difficult choices ahead, but for the over 2,000 people present in the Albany State Convention Center, it marked a new beginning and indicated new opportunities to turn things around.
Cuomo closed his first remarks as governor by reminding the audience that New York State was once the beacon for problem solving and innovation. This was his “New York state of mind” moment. While it is too early to predict how all this will turn out, it was a moment of attention and encouragement that New Yorkers seem to have longed for many years. Just that in itself makes it a good start for the new administration and legislature, and a moment to savor for our New York friends.
*John Parisella is a guest blogger to AQ Online. He is Québec's Delegate General in New York, the province's top ranking position in the United States.
From the Americas Society/Council of the Americas. AS/COA Online's news brief examines the major—as well as some of the overlooked—events and stories occurring across the Americas. Check back every Wednesday for the weekly roundup.
Baby Doc Faces Corruption Charges in Haiti
Jean-Claude “Baby Doc” Duvalier returned to Haiti on Sunday 25 years after going into exile. He was arrested Tuesday. The former dictator, accused of presiding over the killing and torturing of thousands of Haitians, now faces embezzlement and corruption charges. International human rights defenders have also called for the Haitian courts to prosecute Duvalier over the allegations of violence committed during his dictatorship. Duvalier’s sudden return sparked rumors that the U.S. and French governments might somehow be involved (both deny the claims) and fueled unsubstantiated speculation that ousted leftist president Jean Aristide may also be planning to come back to Haiti.
Death Toll Rises above 700 in Brazilian Floods
Heavy rains outside Rio de Janeiro devastated hilltop communities, killed more than 700 people, and left another 14,000 homeless. The floods struck on the anniversary of the January 12 Haitian earthquake, raising debates and comparisons about response. President Dilma Rousseff and Rio de Janeiro state Governor Sérgio Cabral said lax enforcement of housing codes worsened the destruction. The World Band committed to lending Brazil $485 million in to aid relief efforts and the Rousseff administration has moved ahead with plans to create a national disaster alert system. O Globo offers a photo gallery of the areas affected by the catastrophe.
Rousseff Reassesses Jet Deal
Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff appears to be rethinking the purchase of 36 Rafale jet fighters from French company Dassault—a deal nearly concluded by her predecessor Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva. Rousseff’s decision to reevaluate the finalists for the $4 billion defense contract put the U.S. company Boeing back in the running, though Rousseff reportedly wants Boeing to provide additional technology-transfer guarantees.
The Secretaría de Educación Pública or SEP (Ministry of Education) in Mexico has traditionally been known for being slow, over-bureaucratized and square-minded. Low quality levels are reflected year after year through a series of international comparative studies. One need only consult the results of the PISA (Programme for International Student Assessment) to see in disgust how Mexico’s constant is to come up last in the OCDE countries year after year.
Vidal Garza, a friend and editorialist for a major newspaper in Mexico, writes that the problem is even more apparent when you look at the amount of money we spend on our public schools: “Mexico invests 5 percent of its GDP on public education. The average annual expense per student in elementary school is $1,604, yet we fare deficiently in PISA. We do worse than Uruguay, Chile and China, which actually spend a lot less per student.”
To make things worse, The SEP (and Mexico as a whole) is in a constant battle with the SNTE, Sindicato Nacional de Trabajadores de la Educación, a corrupt teacher’s union that promotes strikes and teacher absenteeism as a the means to advance a political agenda. SNTE has filled our public schools with undedicated, unqualified and mediocre people who should not even have the honor of being called “teacher.” Granted, this is a generalization but a real one. I have met a couple of very good teachers in the public system; unfortunately today they are a rare breed.
It is no secret that we need to improve productivity in terms of education in Mexico. That’s why I was pleased to see a spark of progressive thinking on the part of SEP when I learned that they will be instituting a program to identify overachievers and children with higher intellectual proficiency in elementary schools with the intent to “credit, promote and advance them” in an accelerated manner. For example, if a child in 3rd grade shows the intellectual capacity of a 6th grader, the program will identify, prepare and eventually advance him/her to a 6th grade classroom. SEP estimates that around 10 percent to 15 percent of kids could benefit from this program.
Argentina’s wine exports to the United States increased 12 percent in the 2009-2010 period, overtaking Chile as the fourth-largest wine supplier to the U.S. market. Italy, France and Australia hold the top three spots. Total exports exceeded $222 million in 2010 compared to $210 million for U.S.-directed Chilean exports. Total foreign sales of Argentine wine topped $860 million in 2010 overcoming poor numbers in 2009 when a low harvest blamed on bad weather forced Argentina to import Chilean wine to meet domestic demand.
The increase in sales has been largely attributed to the economic conditions in the U.S., which have forced consumers to look for alternatives to more expensive European wines. Top among them is Argentina’s Malbec variety according to vintner Jose Zuccardi. Further hurting Chilean wine exporters is the appreciation of the Chilean peso.
Argentina is now the world’s fifth-largest wine producer, ninth-largest exporter and the seventh-largest consumer. In fact, Argentines consume more than three-quarters of their total domestic wine production which contributes US$2.63 billion—an industry that yields $2.63 billion in sales and employs nearly 400,000 people.
Political institutions tend to respond slowly in adapting to challenges. Longstanding problems typically arise and evolve long before policymakers and government officials are able to identify them. And when they do, they are generally ill-equipped to devise proposals to solving these problems. One of the more telling examples is happening in Colombia—where not only the mining industry is impacted but strategic assets like water are being put at risk.
Colombia is the largest coal producer in Latin America, and after Venezuela and Brazil, the third-largest for crude oil. The exploitation of gold, silver and rare earth minerals such as coltan (a combination of columbite and tantalite) is growing exponentially. Must of this activity is driven by foreign direct investment (FDI); between 2008 and 2009 alone, the percentage of investments in mining projects out of all FDI skyrocketed from 17 percent to 43 percent—from $1.8 billion to $3.1 billion. The figure is expected to further increase in 2010.
But environmentalists are concerned about the booming mining sector. “Mining is a high-risk industry growing in Colombia at an exorbitant rate while national environmental institutions that are meant to regulate it are in their weakest shape in 15 years,” notes Guillermo Rudas, a researcher at the Universidad Externado de Colombia. Rudas’ study maps the evolution of land with mining titles and land requested for mining in the last 20 years. He notes that from 2002-2010 areas with mining titles boomed from 2.8 million acres to 21 million acres. Despite this trend, Rudas notes that the budget relative to GDP for Colombia’s environmental agencies was three times larger in 1994 than in 2010.
This fiscal disconnect takes a serious and unique toll. Despite its relatively small size, Colombia is ranked among the most biologically diverse countries in the world. Its rich ecosystems range from tropical rainforests to high-altitude moorlands to the open sabana valley of ponds and wetlands. This means that the success of the mining industry has a lasting imprint on Colombia’s ecology. Mining involves heavy machinery, enormous need of water, extensive soil removal and tree removal, massive usage of toxic chemicals, and opening new roads in naturally-protected areas. It also poses unprecedented health risks to workers and local populations.
Colombia needs clear legal frameworks, reliable information, strong regulations, and well-financed environmental institutions. But none of these seem to be happening.
No member of “The Worst of the Worst”—a list put together by George Ayittey for Foreign Policy—would be expected to address the legislature of his country with an open attitude and with calls for democratic dialogue. “The Worst of the Worst” is a list of the world's tyrants, autocrats and dictators. Prominent members include, among others, North Korea's Kim Jong Il, Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe, Sudan's Omar al-Bashir (indicted by the International Criminal Court), Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and Aleksandr Lukashenko of Belarus, Europe's last and only dictator.
But just recently, while addressing Venezuela's National Assembly, President Hugo Chávez, a member of the list, spoke with a tone of reconciliation, made repeated calls for dialogue with the opposition and even pledged to end in five months the 18-month special decree powers conferred to him by the Assembly in December 2010.
What does this say about the nature of Chávez' regime? Ayittey included Chávez in the list for having “...jailed opposition leaders, extended term limits indefinitely, and closed independent media.” All of that is true. But at the same time, it's true that all this has been done in a way that makes Chávez quite different from most members of the list.
While it's true that opposition leaders have been persecuted, it's also true that opposition parties are permitted in Venezuela, and are in fact very vocal and active. It's true that Chávez sought (and got) indefinite re-election. But at the same time, it's true that he has won a number of elections that are presumed fair, since no credible evidence of fraud has ever been presented. Chávez did even allow international observation at some of these elections.
Talks between government officials and local leaders on Monday failed to end protests over an increase in natural gas prices in the south of Chile. Chile's Mining and Energy Minister Laurence Golborne travelled to the regional capital of Punta Arenas to offer a limit on the price increase to 3 percent, an improvement from the 17 percent originally estimated, and to continue subsidies for poor families. But the concessions were not sufficient to appease the demonstrators.
The protests began last week when Chile's state-owned national petroleum company (Enap) decided to reduce local subsidies beginning in February, causing the spike in gas prices. Gas is of particular concern to the residents of southern Chile, where the artic temperatures require more household heating than in other regions of the country.
Demonstrators have been blocking roads and ports, leaving hundreds of tourists stranded last week, though many have since managed to leave the region. The Chilean government is considering using state security if protests continue.
Over the course of my week in Cartagena, I have become more steeped in the language, culture and attitudes of Colombians. It seems fitting, then, that the last music concerts I attended at the Festival Internacional de Música were distinctly rooted in Colombian traditions and modern identities, rather than the classical music of Europe. As much as the festival may cater to an international audience, on Thursday and Friday the spotlight was on Colombia and its next generation of musicians.
At the beginning of Thursday evening’s concert, which took place in the by-now-familiar Plaza San Pedro Claver, the festival’s artistic director Stephen Prutsman appeared on stage. “Tonight you can show your emotion for the music,” he told the audience. “This is no ordinary classical music concert.” To make sure they understood his meaning, he then led them in a practice round of applause.
They did. Thursday evening’s concert, entitled Colombia Mágica (Magical Colombia), drew standing ovations and pleas for encore performances. One group it featured was the Guafa Trio, which—founded in 1998—was one of the first groups to combine classical music’s technical rigor with instruments and traditions native to Colombia. With the high, airy notes of the flute and earthy, sensual beats of the base (contrabajo), Guafa Trio’s music immediately called to mind folkloric tunes of the Andes.
The concert also featured Marta Gómez, a singer/songwriter who is originally from Cali. Wearing a long black dress under a bright yellow shawl, her black hair neatly parted and slicked back in a tight bun, Gómez made for a striking presence on stage even before she began singing. Accompanied by musicians from across South America and even Russia, her voice strong and charged with emotion (reminding me alternately of Mercedes Sosa, Enya and Alanis Morissette), and her hips swaying naturally to the music, Marta Gómez hypnotized the audience. They held their breaths during her melancholy solos, clapped enthusiastically to the beat of her cumbia, and cried for more when it was all over.
Marta Gómez y su grupo performing at the Plaza San Pedro Claver. Photo courtesy of Joshua Z Weinstein.
Rather than focus on crafting real solutions to our broken immigration system, legislators have started the new year again playing politics. Last week, on the first day of Congress, Representative Steve King (IA) introduced the Birthright Citizenship Act of 2011 (HR 140) as legislators from Arizona, Georgia, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania and South Carolina also unveiled their plans to introduce local measures to create state-by-state, two-tiered citizenship categories. Nine other states also intend to introduce similar bills this year. Neither of these proposals should be part of the answer to the
The King bill made it onto the list of the first 150 pieces of legislation to be introduced in the new session of the House of Representatives. What about the economy or jobs? Only four job-related bills (HR 72, HR 117, HR 132, and HR 133) were introduced before Mr. King’s bill and none have come close to gathering the 33 cosponsors that the King bill can already count on. Actually, each of these bills has zero to one cosponsor at the time of this post. Instead, 33 Members of Congress chose to focus part of their attention on a bill that would restrict citizenship to only those children with parents where one of whom is either: “a U.S. citizen or national; a lawful permanent resident alien whose residence is in the United States; or an alien performing active service in the U.S. Armed Forces.”
Supporters of restricting citizenship cite the phrase “subject to the jurisdiction thereof” in the 14th Amendment—adopted in 1868 to allow former slaves to become
At least 511 people have been reported killed since Wednesday by mudslides and flooding in Brazil’s deadliest natural disaster in recent memory. Heavy precipitation over the past few days is now predicted to continue in the coming weeks, threatening further damage and hindering rescue efforts in the states of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo.
The cities of Petropolis, Teresopolis and Nova Friburgo—all located in a mountainous region about 40 miles north of Rio de Janeiro—were the hardest hit as rain swelled rivers and swept away houses. With the death toll rising, authorities and experts have already begun assigning blame for what are perceived as inadequate rescue efforts and insufficient preparation for floods, which have become increasingly common in Brazil.
“There is carelessness at every level of government,” says Gil Castello Branco, secretary general of Contas Abertas, a group that monitors government spending. Although annual flooding is common in southeastern Brazil, the federal budget for disaster prevention and preparation measures dropped 18 percent in 2010, says Mr. Castello Branco.
Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff and Rio de Janeiro Governor Sergio Cabral, however, cite poor oversight by municipal authorities who allow people to build houses on hillsides vulnerable to landslides. Mr. Cabral said 18,000 people lived in high risk areas in the city of Rio de Janeiro alone. Ms. Rousseff concurred, saying “mountains untouched by men dissolved. But we also saw areas in which illegal occupation caused damage to the health and lives of people…When there aren't housing policies, where are people who earn no more than twice the minimum wage going to live?"
(An English version of this post is forthcoming.)
A edição de 13 dezembro de 2010 da Revista Época trouxe como manchete uma análise sobre os 100 mais influentes brasileiros do ano. Com cinco opções de capa, a revista dá ao leitor a opção de comprar a versão com a presidente Dilma Rousseff; a do cineasta José Padilha, diretor dos filmes Tropa de Elite 1 e 2; com o empresário Eike Batista, considerado a 8ª pessoa mais rica do mundo e finalmente a capa com o jogador santista Neymar Júnior. Mas, o que de fato chama a atenção não é o recurso publicitário acima mencionado, e sim o fato de que praticamente não há negros nessa edição especial.
Com exceção da ex-ministra Marina Silva, fenômeno das últimas eleições presidenciais, e do jogador Neymar, que ocupa a tradicional parcela de negros no campo das celebridades futebolística, todos os outros 98 escolhidos pela equipe da revista são brancos. Como disse certa vez, em entrevista, o ator negro Milton Gonçalves, “nós não estamos na fotografia do poder”.
Pela lógica da revista , a população negra brasileira deve, portanto, contentar-se em ler histórias de sucesso de seus patrícios não-negros e ícones do Brasil que “deu certo”, como a de Eduardo Saverin, bilionário, co-fundador do Facebook, de apenas 28 anos; David Neeleman, que colocou a companhia Azul em terceiro lugar no mercado de aviação brasileiro; de Alexandre Behring, que comprou ações da empresa americana Burger King - reforçando a nova imagem do capitalismo brasileiro no mercado Global - além de tantos outros “euro-ascendentes” que contribuíram para o desenvolvimento do Brasil em 2010. Até na música, tradicional reduto negro na mídia, sobrou para os cantores negros Margareth Menezes e Carlinhos Brown apenas fazerem comentários elogiosos sobre Ivete Sangalo e a roqueira Pitty, respectivamente.
Como se vê, se tomarmos apenas essa reportagem como referencial, conclui-se que o Brasil termina a última década de século XX como se estivesse ainda no século XIX: sem negros nos espaços de poder, apesar da retórica conservadora de que somos uma democracia racial.
Julia Salvi, a native of Colombia, recalls bringing her Italian husband Victor to Cartagena for the first time, around early 2005: “Of course he loved it right away, and started thinking about what he could do here. When other people were thinking about buying houses, he was thinking about buying a theater,” she chuckles.
It might sound crazy, but the Salvis, who own a harp-making business, were contemplating a new musical venture that would have a philanthropic component. Although their name isn’t on any theater in Cartagena, the changes they have brought to the city are indelible. With the inaugural Festival Internacional de Música in 2007, Julia and Victor Salvi established the Fundación Victor Salvi to promote the music industry and the musical development of youth in Colombia. Julia is now the president of the Salvi Foundation.
At the beginning, the festival was funded entirely by the Salvis. Over the past five years, however, it has grown very quickly, expanding its funding base alongside the growing numbers of participants, concerts and educational activities, This year, it met its budget of $5 million primarily through in-kind and cash support from corporations, private foundations and individual donations. Financial support from the federal and local government is minimal, consisting of a $100,000 donation from the government of the City of Cartagena and a $15,000 grant from the Ministry of Culture. “I wish I could have more,” says Salvi, but she is also quick to point out that the government supports the festival in other ways (for example, helping with publicity and facilitating necessary permits), and that she does not want to depend on politicians—who change frequently and could be a source of financial instability—for money, preferring instead to be self-sustaining.
Salvi says the Festival Internacional de Música plays a significant role in international and cultural tourism. She estimates that 35 percent of paid-ticket holders are foreigners and 25 percent are Colombians who currently live abroad. The festival directors try “not to lose the balance” between international and local audiences to ensure an international perspective. Nonetheless, the festival’s free concerts, which are open to the public and make up about one-third of its programming, do attract a local audience. For example, at the open-air concerts—written about in previous posts from Cartagena this week (here and here)—Salvi estimates that approximately 40 percent of the standing audiences were from Cartagena.
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) heard Costa Rica’s formal complaint against Nicaragua yesterday—initially filed in November 2010—regarding the ongoing border dispute along the San Juan River. Nicaragua will present its arguments today.
Costa Rica’s delegation headed by Jorge Urbina, the permanent representative to the United Nations, presented historical maps from Costa Rica-Nicaragua bilateral agreements with accompanying satellite photographs of the disputed region. Foreign minister René Castro was “satisfied” with his government’s testimony before the panel of 16 judges at the ICJ. Castro added: “Costa Rica does not accept the thesis [of Nicaragua] that the end justifies the means.”
The border argument took form in October 2010 when Costa Rica alleged that Nicaraguan forces were operating on Calero, an island in the San Juan River, and performing dredging operations—which Costa Rica claimed damaged the environment. After a successful appeal to the Organization of American States (OAS), and the subsequent recommendation of Secretary General José Miguel Insulza for Nicaragua to remove troops from Calero, Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega threatened to withdraw unilaterally from the OAS.
A Year after the Quake, Good Manufacturing News for Haiti
In Haiti, Sae-A Trading Company, a South Korean clothing-manufacturing giant, opened for business this week. Its factory will employ 20,000 Haitians once fully operational. On the same day, the historic downtown Port-au-Prince Iron Market reopened after Caribbean mobile phone carrier Digicel paid to have it reconstructed. Jean-Max Bellerive, Haiti’s prime minister, said: “I have to say this is the best day of my life.”
Read an AS/COA news analysis reflecting on Haiti a year after the earthquake and covering the latest developments on the upcoming runoff election.
How New Tech Helped Haiti after Quake
A year after the earthquake, a report released by the Knight Foundation explored ways that new technologies provided help to Haiti in the midst of and after the catastrophe. Crowd sourcing helped rescuers find injured quake victims, texting spread critical information, and open-source maps and GPS devices allowed humanitarian workers to navigate damaged areas. Donations by texting outstripped fundraising by telephone and raised $30 million in the first 10 days of the emergency. But one older media format—radio—also served as a crucial source of communication. The report looks at technological hurdles as well and offers recommendations for using innovative tools in future disasters.
Connectivity: Cell Phones Challenge PCs in Latin America
Universia Knowledge@Wharton explores why mobile phones will rival computers when it comes to Internet use in Latin America. The article points out that Latin American cell-phone subscribers total 530 million—one hundred million more than in Western Europe and outpaced only by the Asia-Pacific region as a market. Lower service and hardware costs fuel the rise of web use on cell phones in the region.
Santiago Latest in LatAm to Recognize Palestinian State
ForeignPolicy.com’s Passport blog takes a look at the rising number of South American countries recognizing the Palestinian state, with Chile and Paraguay joining the ranks of Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, Uruguay, and Venezuela. There are an estimated 300,000 Chileans of Palestinian decent.
Chilean Protests against Gas-Price Hikes Turn Deadly
The Christian Science Monitor suggests Chilean President Sebastián Piñera “may be facing his biggest crisis yet,” stemming from a general strike in Punto Arenas against rises in natural gas prices. The demonstrations took a tragic turn Tuesday night, when two protestors were killed after a truck ran through a barricade where they were posted. The Piñera administration has proposed a price increase of 17 percent.
Argentine Imports Brazil-Printed Peso Bills
Argentines are suffering from a shortage of peso bills as the government struggles to keep up with demand for 100-peso notes, the most valuable denomination. The task of printing more bills has been outsourced to Brazil, with the government prioritizing delivery of paper money to the more populous provinces in the country.
Ante Upped on Exchange Rate Rhetoric by Brazil
Tensions over language against global currency manipulations increased this week when Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega warning that “[t]his is a currency war that is turning into a trade war.” As well as protecting its domestic economy, Brasilia will call on the World Trade Organization to redefine exchange-rate tampering as a form of export subsidy.
Economic Management Hurdles ahead for Dilma
Following the inauguration of Dilma Rousseff as Brazil’s new president, Roubini Global Economics offers a forecast of the economic challenges that lie ahead for the newly minted head of state. Swelling inflation will need to be managed, as well as fiscal policy, which will need to be tightened at the expense of public spending, says the analysis.
Read an AS/COA analysis about Rousseff’s inauguration.
13 Candidates Onboard for Peruvian Presidential Race
January 10 marked the deadline for candidates to officially throw their hats into the ring for the April 2011 presidential election in Peru. Thirteen have signed up, including ex- President Alejandro Toledo; Keiko Fujimori, daughter of the imprisoned former leader; Ollanta Humala, who lost the last election to Alan García, former Lima Mayor Luis Castañeda, and ex-Finance Minister Mercedes Aráoz.
Forecasting a Rise in Venezuelan Nationalizations
“Those who believed that the Venezuelan opposition's gains in the September 2010 midterm elections would chasten President Hugo Chávez have seen their hopes dashed in the past six weeks,” writes AS/COA’s Christopher Sabatini in an article for ForeignAffairs.com. “Since the end of November, Chávez and his allies—Chavistas—rammed through a series of laws that consolidate his control over everything from banks and local governments to the Internet and the National Assembly.” Sabatini contends that expropriations will continue, and that Washington should partner with other countries to ensure compensation and electoral oversight in next-year’s presidential vote.
Spain Arrests ETA Members with FARC Links
Spanish authorities arrested two members of the Basque separatist group ETA suspected of providing communications and IT training to FARC guerillas. The arrests are part of a larger attempt to dismember ETA-FARC cooperation, as members of ETA are suspected of being in hiding with the FARC in Venezuela.
Colombia’s Santos Talks Past, Future
El Espectador features a heart-to-heart interview with President Juan Manuel Santos, who suggests that his proposed political reforms may result in him having a legacy similar to Franklin Roosevelt’s, referring to the biography Traitor to His Class: The Privileged Life and Radical Presidency of Franklin Delano Roosevelt. In the interview, Santos talks about his military background, his experience as minister of defense, and his relationship with former President Álvaro Uribe. In talking about goals for his presidency, Santos stated he wants “Colombia to become an example for the entire world.”
McCain: Republicans to Push FTA with Colombia, Panama
In a meeting with Colombia’s President Juan Manuel Santos in Cartagena, Senator John McCain (R-AZ) discussed the Republican Party’s desire to expand preferential trade benefits for Colombia. He indicated that the GOP, now holding the balance of power in the U. S. House of Representatives, would push for the ratification of the stalled free trade agreement with the Andean country, and with Panama.
The upcoming issue of Americas Quarterly covers trade policy in the Americas.
Canada’s PM Shuffles Cabinet
Prime Minister Stephen Harper of Canada shuffled his cabinet for a third time in 12 months, reassigning the environment, foreign affairs (Americas), finance, and seniors portfolios. In what is seen as a solid selection for a challenging position, Peter Kent was presented with the environment portfolio. Calgary MP Diane Ablonczy will serve as the foreign affairs minister in charge of Canada’s diplomatic efforts in the Western Hemisphere.
Canadian Eyes Look to Latin America
The Globe and Mail’s emerging markets blog says “Latin America is luring a wave of Canadian investors and entrepeneurs” at a time when “the world is waking up to the region’s promise.” The blog post highlights key points, including that almost all Latin American economies will grow this year, Mexico as an attractive place to do business, and infrastructure as an investment opportunity.
U-Turn on U.S.-Mexican Trucking Dispute
U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk indicated Monday that a stalled program paving the way for Mexican trucks to operate in the United States may restart within four to six months. The announcement came during a January 10 meeting of North American trade officials. A NAFTA provision requires Washington to allow cross-border trucking operations, but a bill inked by President Barack Obama in 2009 eliminated spending for such a program, sparking Mexico to impose tariffs on roughly 90 U.S. products.
Mexican Presidential Hopeful Offers Crime-Fighting Plan
Writing for Financial Times’ beyondbrics blog Enrique Peña Nieto, governor of the state of Mexico, outlines four strategies to reduce violent crime in Mexico. Preventative measures include a reduction in inequality, a strengthened and smarter anti-organized crime force, a more focused security strategy, and shared social responsibility. Peña Nieto is considered a frontrunner in the 2012 Mexican presidential election. Bloggings by Boz ponders “just how similar Peña Nieto's strategy is to the most recent strategy announced by President [Felipe] Calderón in June 2010.”
IMF Extends Record Credit Line to Mexico
In a show of confidence, the International Monetary Fund extended a $72-billion credit line to Mexico to help underwrite its economy in case of future economic difficulties. The credit extension, the largest in the IMF’s history, is based on Mexico’s strong economic showing. The country grew 5 percent in 2010.
Curbing Childhood Obesity in Mexico
Mexico took steps to combat child obesity on January 10 by proposing controls on the sale of junk foods (chatarra) in public and private schools around the country. The Education Secretariat released a list of over 600 low-fat and low-sugar foods that it recommends to be sold in schools. Mexico ranks second in the world for adult obesity, but takes the cake in rankings for overweight children.
Saving Juarez: Local Business Leaders Combat Violence
An article on The Atlantic's website includes interviews with business leaders in violence-plagued Ciudad Juarez about efforts to combat cartel crime. “It might seem unlikely that a handful of civic leaders could organize and fundraise their city out of the chokehold of drug violence responsible for so many killings, kidnappings, and attacks on police,” writes Eliza Barclay. “But they believe it could work in part because the city's economic backbone is still intact.”The article notes that, despite the bloodshed, Ciudad Juarez has seen 24,000 manufacturing jobs added since June 2009.
Maritime Incident Raises Jamaican-Honduran Tensions
Honduras and Jamaica are embroiled in a diplomatic dispute over a maritime incident involving a Honduran fishing boat and Jamaican Coast Guards. The Coast Guard claims the vessel was fishing illegally in Jamaican waters, refused to cooperate, allegedly attempting to ram the Coast Guard’s ship, who then shot at the boat’s engine room to disable the vessel, killing the ship’s captain and injuring two others.
El Salvador’s Top Stories for 2010
Tim’s El Savador blog offers a roundup of the leading stories affecting El Salvador in 2010. The list includes record rains, reforms that will allow local polling and voting for individuals rather than parties, and the apology offered by President Mauricio Funes for the government’s involvement in human rights atrocities during the country’s civil war.
Tourism on the Rise in Guatemala, Nicaragua
Official figures released by Guatemala show two pieces of good news for 2010: a decrease in the homicide rate and an increase in the number of tourists visiting the country. Late last month, Nicaragua also shared positive tourism news: the country hosted one million tourists in 2010—its highest figure on record.
One year has passed since Haiti was rocked by the 7.0-magnitude earthquake on January 12, 2010. In just three minutes, a nation already suffering from hunger and neglect was hit with a seemingly decisive blow.
The media’s coverage of Haiti is as insightful today as it was in the weeks immediately following the earthquake. Then, as now, there is a cache of grim photos and figures that find their way into each segment. Running down a list of casualties—supposedly to paint a picture of the situation plaguing Haiti—tends to oversimplify an unnervingly complicated situation. At the same time however, it’s important to take stock of what has been lost in just a year: more than 250,000 killed in the earthquake alone; 1 million displaced persons; 3,500 dead by Cholera with 400,000 more cases estimated to surface in 2012; upwards of $10 billion in damages; and political violence rampant surrounding the political election. As they say, ‘if it bleeds, it leads’.
But amidst the cripplingly slow reconstruction effort, some progress has been made. The most symbolic achievement—and perhaps the most dramatic as well—is the presidential election that took place on November 28, 2010. Why would a fraud-ridden election that played out like a telenovela be so key? Because the single most important entity in post-earthquake Haiti will be an established, well-funded Haitian government. Not only will this government be in charge of delivering social services the government has failed to provide for decades, but the legitimacy of the government (and I use the word legitimacy optimistically) will determine how much of the $10 billion in donations and foreign aid actually makes its way to Haiti, and from that point, how effectively it is invested.
Granted, it will be several months before Haiti’s next president comes into power, let alone establishes him or herself. But the Organization of American States (OAS) took a crucial step on Monday when it published a review of the hotly contested election results. The outcome: disqualification of 17,220 votes for ruling-party candidate Jude Celestin and 7,150 votes for kompa star Michel “Sweet Mickey” Martelly. The OAS put an end to the back and forth about who will participate in the run-off next month (assuming President Préval accepts the report, which he should given that he invited the 10-man OAS team in the first place). With Martelly likely to earn a second-place victory with 22.2 percent of the vote, he would face undisputed first-place finisher Mirlande Manigat for perhaps the most important presidential post in Haiti since the 1960s.
June 1: This AQ-Efecto Naím segment looks at sustainable cities in the hemisphere.