Manuel Zelaya to Head Petrocaribe's Political Council

March 8, 2010

Former Honduran President Manuel Zelaya has accepted an invitation to head Petrocaribe’s newly formed political council, Venezuelan foreign minister Nicolás Maduro announced on Saturday. Minister Maduro said that in his new post, Zelaya would "oversee strengthening of political independence and the defense of 'popular democracy' in Latin America and the Caribbean."

Petrocaribe, a Venezuelan state initiative created in 2005, gives preferential oil prices to 18 Caribbean and Central American nations. The announcement came at a governing United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) meeting in Caracas, to which Zelaya had traveled from the Dominican Republic (where he is living under exile) to attend.

Zelaya, who was overthrown in a June 28, 2009 coup has been living in self-imposed exile since January 27, 2010, when Porfirio Lobo was sworn in as president.

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Central America’s Rule of Law: Guatemala Captures Portillo But Honduras Rewards Micheletti

January 27, 2010

For decades, impunity has reined in Central America. Dictatorial rule, coups, murder, and genocide have, for the most part, gone unpunished. This month, however, events in Guatemala have suggested a potential turning of the tide. In the last three weeks, Guatemalan authorities have solved the potentially destabilizing Rosenberg case and arrested ex-President Alfonso Portillo for money laundering $70 million when he was in power. Meanwhile, in Honduras, the rule of law appears as in jeopardy as ever, as the Congress has rewarded de facto President Roberto Micheletti and pledged amnesty for all those involved in ousting President Manuel Zelaya. When it comes to the rule of law, Honduras lags as far behind as ever.

Since the Peace Accords brought Guatemala’s 36-year civil war to an end in 1996, Guatemalan activists and international observers have demanded justice for the state-sponsored genocide in the 1980s. For the most part, however—as in most of Latin America—justice has not come. Moreover, since the late 1990s, crime has spiraled out of control, perceptions of corruption are high, and the legal system has proved incapable of apprehending and prosecuting both common criminals and thieving politicians. Pervasive impunity partially explains the horrific practice of lynchings that plagues Guatemala. But the failing of the rule of law in the region also contributes to Guatemalans’ disenchantment with democracy (desencanto democrático).

Not only have Guatemalan voters lost faith in democratic government’s ability to bring economic development and alleviate massive poverty, but vast swaths of the citizenry have come to believe that the laws simply do not apply to the powerful. As the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) has shown, perceptions of corruption and insecurity negatively affect democratic values in Guatemala. Compared with other Latin American countries, it is unsurprising that Guatemala ranks low in popular preference for democracy as a form of government.

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Porfirio Lobo Takes Office as Manuel Zelaya Leaves Honduras

January 27, 2010

The presidents of Panama, Taiwan, Guatemala, and Dominican Republic arrived in Tegucigalpa Wednesday morning, joining U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Arturo Valenzuela and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Craig Kelly for the swearing-in ceremony of Porfirio Lobo Sosa. The ceremony began at 6:30 a.m. in the National Congress and was scheduled to end at 1:00 p.m. 

Dominican President Leonel Fernández left Santo Domingo in his official jet Wednesday morning, planning to return the same day with former Honduran President Manuel Zelaya, who was ousted from power by the Honduran military on June 28, 2009.  On Tuesday, Fernández and Lobo signed an agreement granting Zelaya’s safe passage out of Honduras. 

Dignitaries from Colombia, Canada, Israel, Italy, Peru, Morocco, Belize, and Turkey also planned to attend the ceremony, though several Latin American countries, including Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela, have not recognized Lobo’s electoral victory on November 29, 2009. 

It was not known prior to the ceremony whether interim President Roberto Micheletti would hand over the presidency to Lobo. Micheletti was hospitalized due to high blood pressure on Monday, the day a new congress was also sworn in. 

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Honduran Attorney General Charges Coup Leaders

January 8, 2010

The leader of the Honduran Army, General Romeo Vásquez, and five of his top officers were charged this week with “abuse of power” in connection with the June ouster of deposed President Manuel Zelaya. The country’s chief prosecutor, Luis Alberto Rubí, did not appear to question the military’s initial detention of Mr. Zelaya, which had been ordered by the courts, but rather their decision to forcibly remove the president from the country.

Since his November 19 election, President-elect Porfirio Lobo has consistently advocated for amnesty and reconciliation between the military, the interim government and the deposed president. This public stance has lead to widespread speculation that the charges against General Vásquez and his subordinates will likely be dropped when they reach the Supreme Court as part of a deal to ease the country’s tensions.

Deposed President Zelaya reacted to news of a possible amnesty in a communiqué from the Brazilian embassy, where he has been holed up for months, saying the Attorney General is using “a new strategy that ensures impunity for the military officers.” Shortly thereafter, hundreds of Zelaya sympathizers marched in Tegucigalpa in opposition to amnesty.

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From Tegucigalpa: Preliminary Election Analysis, Part Two

December 8, 2009

With the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) nearing completion of its first pass through Honduras’ election results, a more subtle (albeit still incomplete) analysis has become possible. What is certain is that the National Party won an unprecedented victory. What remains in question is precisely why. Answering this question requires a closer examination at voter participation trends in previous elections and inferential analysis of what took place in 2009. Below, I first present the results, before offering a hypothesis to explain them.

The Results

Porfirio Lobo and the National Party won a landslide victory at every level of government. In the presidential elections, the National Party took upwards of 55 percent of votes cast, while the Liberal Party—long the numerically dominant party in Honduras—could not even muster 40 percent. In the Congress, the National Party won over 70 seats of a total of 128. And, in the mayoral races, the National Party has carried more than 200 of 298 municipalities. The final tallies may differ in a handful of races, but the general trend—a National Party routing of the Liberal Party—will hold.

To put this trouncing in perspective: since political liberalization and civilian elections in 1981, no presidential candidate has received 54 percent of valid votes (not to speak of total votes cast). Furthermore, consider the last time that the National Party won the elections (only the second time since 1981). The winning presidential candidate, Ricardo Maduro, won with less than 50 percent of votes cast (52 percent of valid votes), and the National Party obtained neither an outright majority in Congress (it got 61 seats) nor among mayoralties (it won 148 of 298 municipalities).

In fact, after both the 2001 and 2005 elections, the winning party won only a plurality in Congress, forcing it to form coalitions to pass legislation. For the next four years, the National Party will not face this obstacle. This could further marginalize the three smaller parties (Democratic Unification party—UD, the Christian Democratic Party of Honduras—DC and the Innovation and Unity Party—PINU). Moreover, the UD’s very existence stands in question, given sharp internal divisions about whether to participate in the elections (the party decided to participate only a week before the election) and the party’s predictably miserable showing.

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From Tegucigalpa. Winner is Clear, But Turnout Questions Remain

November 30, 2009

Porfirio Lobo will be Honduras’s next President.  Consistent with recent polls, Lobo, the National Party candidate, won a resounding victory over Liberal Party candidate Elvin Santos.  The results were unambiguous, and Santos quickly conceded victory while Lobo and the National Party celebrated their victory.  This sharply contrasts with the 2005 elections, when doubts remained about the results for over a week and speculation about vote-rigging abounded.  In 2009, conversely, the question is not who won, but how many people voted.  The turnout question will now become the centerpiece of the debate on the election.

After rampant speculation regarding possible Election Day protests and violence, Sunday’s elections took place under relative tranquility.  The military and police were out in full force on Sunday to protect the elections, and security concerns were high enough to warrant canceling flights from the United States.  There was some reported repression of protesters in San Pedro Sula, raids on pro-Zelaya groups’ offices, and temporary jamming of pro-Zelaya media.  Generally, however, Honduras was quiet, and those that opposed the elections stayed at home instead of risking arrest by protesting.  By mid-afternoon, the capital was a ghost town, with political propaganda everywhere but virtually no one on the streets and few cars on the road.   

Soon after the polls closed, the presidential results were clear.  Porfirio Lobo won well over 50 percent of the vote, while Elvin Santos received less than 40 percent.  This result was predictable.  Though significantly more Hondurans self-identify as Liberals, the June coup and ensuing political crisis have deeply fractured the Liberal Party.  Many Liberals who identified with the deposed president, Manuel Zelaya, vowed to stay away from the polls.  As one Liberal Party poll worker in Tegucigalpa, Miriam DeVicente, explained on Sunday afternoon, once the polls were virtually empty, “I think that from the Liberal Party many people have stayed away.”  Meanwhile, other voters punished the Liberal Party for the political crisis that took place on its watch.

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Porfirio Lobo Wins Honduran Election, Hemisphere Remains Divided

November 30, 2009

The Honduran elections on Sunday brought a decisive victory to National Party candidate Porfirio Lobo, winning 55.9 percent of the votes according to figures by the Honduran election authorities. Elvin Santos of the Liberal Party conceded defeat with 30.09 percent of the votes cast. These numbers were consistent with independent verification but a discrepancy does exist with respect to the rate of voter turnout. The electoral tribunal reported a 61.3 percent voter turnout rate while Hagamos Democracia, which conducted the electoral tribunal’s quick count, noted that 47.6 percent of Hondurans voted.

Following his win, Mr. Lobo said, “I am announcing a government of national unity, of reconciliation. There’s no more time for divisions.”

Nonetheless, the hemisphere remains divided on the legitimacy of the elections with some refusing to recognize the results. Brazil, Argentina, and Venezuela have said they will not recognize the votes. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said Brazil will not recognize the elections “because it's not possible to accept a coup.” On the other hand, the United States endorsed the elections, called it “a necessary and important step forward.” Similarly, Colombian President Alvaro Uribe is confident that the new Lobo government will make “every effort to overcome the difficult situation [in Honduras], to fully consolidate the democratic institutions and to obtain a minimum agreement of national unity.” Peru, Panama, and Costa Rica also stand behind the vote.

Lobo’s four-year term will begin on January 27, 2010. As President, Lobo has promised to increase social benefits and create jobs by attracting private investment to a country where 70 percent of the seven million Hondurans are poor.

Porfirio “Pepe” Lobo Sosa, a wealthy landowner from Olancho, is an experienced politician and served as president of congress from 2002-2006. Lobo studied in Russia in the 1980s and was labeled a leftist by his rivals, but now belongs to the country’s conservative party. He ran for presidency in the 2005 presidential election, but lost a tight race to now disposed President Manuel Zelaya. On Wednesday, Honduran lawmakers will vote on whether to restore Zelaya to the presidency until his term expires.

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The Clergy and the Coup

November 20, 2009

Earlier this week, Mary Anastasia O’Grady shamelessly pulled the God card to defend the Honduran coup. Specifically, she handed her Wall Street Journal column over to the coup-supporting Cardinal Rodriguez to curry favor for the June 28 ousting of President Manuel Zelaya from power. Her article ignores the Church’s troubling historical role in Honduran politics, instead granting this institution legitimacy as the defender of democracy. O’Grady should have known better.

O’Grady’s piece is one in a long line of conservative attempts to justify the overthrow of a democratically-elected president. Christopher Sabatini and I have already debunked these arguments, so I will not do so again here. But this week’s novelty was O’Grady’s use of a deeply controversial Church leader as a mouthpiece for the argument she has been making for months. In her article, she explains why Cardinal Rodriguez supported the coup—what he argues was a “constitutional succession”—namely, that Zelaya undermined the rule of law and therefore lost the “moral authority” to govern the nation.

The Cardinal’s concerns with the rule of the law are legitimate. Manuel Zelaya did not respect the principle of horizontal accountability—a central tenet in liberal democracies. But using the rule of law to justify forcibly removing a president without due process is deeply contradictory. Worse still is the Cardinal’s retreat to “moral authority”—should the military also remove a president at gunpoint for infidelity, supporting abortion rights or promoting secular education?

But the biggest problem with O’Grady’s piece is her uncritical acceptance of the Honduran Church as an institution deeply concerned with the struggle for social justice and democracy. This portrayal is ahistorical and wrong.

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Honduras Pact to Restore Democracy Falters, then Collapses

November 6, 2009

Developments early this week in Honduras appeared to bring the promise of an end to the country’s political crisis and the restoration of democracy there. The media reported globally that a U.S.-led effort had succeeded in reconciling the demands of deposed President Manuel Zelaya with those of de facto President Roberto Micheletti.

Under the terms of the agreement, the Honduran congress was supposed to vote on whether to restore Zelaya to office and the November presidential elections would then be recognized and held without either Micheletti or Zelaya as candidates. A unity government was to have been formed by last night that would govern until the new president took office. The U.S. and the rest of the international community would then recognize the new administration and democratic governance would be restored.

In a stinging rebuke to widely disseminated comments by senior U.S. officials that the crisis was over, today’s reports out of Tegucigalpa indicate that the deal has collapsed. The Honduran Congress has yet to vote on Zelaya’s reinstatement and Micheletti has announced the formation of a unity government without Zelaya’s representatives. According to the ousted president, “The accord is dead.” AQ Editor-in-Chief Christopher Sabatini says that the U.S. strategy for resolving the crisis has apparently backfired and U.S. diplomats “may have put themselves in a bigger pickle than if they hadn’t” taken a diplomatic role.

Meanwhile, in Nicaragua, regional events appear to have overshadowed President Daniel Ortega’s bid to push forward a constitutional reform to allow himself to run for re-election in 2011.

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Here We Go Again: Nicaragua-Honduras-Re-Election

November 6, 2009

Just south of Honduras, in Nicaragua, another constitutional crisis is brewing over re-election.  And while attention is focused on Honduras, many of the actors that stood on the sidelines leading up to the June 28 coup in Honduras are standing on the sidelines again as political totalitarian ambition and institutions head toward a train wreck.

In this case, Sandinista President Daniel Ortega has sparked a constitutional crisis of his own by—like his friend Honduran President Manuel Zelaya—pushing for a constitutional reform to allow himself to run for re-election in 2011. 

In this case, though, six members of the Ortega-packed Supreme Court supported the reform (under the curious and specious decision that Article 147 of the constitution was “inapplicable.” Huh?), and the Nicaraguan Congress refused to question it.  The President of the Supreme Court declared his opposition to the ruling, but the pro-Ortega Sandinista congressional representatives spurned the opportunity to overturn it. 

So wait: the Nicaraguan Supreme Court approved it, and Nicaraguan Congress supported the Supreme Court’s decision.  If this were Honduras this would be constitutional, right?  That’s what U.S. conservatives have been saying: that the coup in Honduras wasn’t a coup because the Honduran Congress and Honduran Supreme Court supported it, and thus democratic institutions had spoken.  (Note: in both cases, the Supreme Court acted in secret with no public debate; in Honduras it was to arrest President Zelaya; in Nicaragua it was to support Daniel Ortega’s totalitarian plan.)

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Beware of Triumphalism in the Honduras Crisis

October 30, 2009

The news today from Tegucigalpa is good. After months of political impasse in Honduras, a delegation led by Assistant Secretary of State Tom Shannon and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary Craig Kelly found a way to get representatives of both Micheletti and Zelaya to agree on a path that will provide a credible means forward to the elections scheduled for November 29.

This is important, because as I’ve noted many times, including in The Christian Science Monitor and other blog postings here, it is the elections that provide the surest, most appropriate escape valve for the crisis that has threatened to overwhelm Honduras and occupy U.S. policymakers who could usefully be focused on other matters. Steps to undermine or undercut the elections are counterproductive. At the same time, for the elections to be credible, they must be open, transparent and fair, and preparations must therefore begin in earnest immediately. Thus the timing of Shannon’s travel was important, and dictated by the need to get going purposefully on the elections.

Some analysts suggest that the trip should have been taken and heads banged earlier to get an agreement even before today. But that would not have allowed the Arias process—which the United States conceptualized and mid-wifed—to run its course. How ironic it would then have been for the United States to put itself in the position to be criticized, likely by the same analysts, for undercutting the multilateral Arias process and returning to the unilateralism they consistently decry. Fortunately, that did not occur.

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Against the Odds, Progress in Honduras?

October 15, 2009

Minor miracles can happen, after all. After beating El Salvador, Honduras qualified for the World Cup when the United States scored a goal to tie Costa Rica in the final minute. In seconds, Hondurans’ emotions flipped 180 degrees—from exasperation at thinking they had come up just short to jubilation at qualifying for the World Cup for the first time in 28 years. From coffee country to the Caribbean coast, Hondurans celebrated with fireworks, flags, honking cars, and screams of joy.

As one announcer remarked, one can only hope that the country’s political leaders follow the national team’s cue and make this a great week for Honduras. And, against the odds, a political resolution may be on its way. In recent days, the Guaymuras Dialogue has brought relative calm to the political crisis. Progress has remained frustratingly slow, but each team seems to have brought a welcome dose of maturity to the negotiating table. The focus on the negotiators—none of them show-stealers—has provided a refreshing change-of-pace from Micheletti and Zelaya’s tired rants and reckless stunts.

On Wednesday afternoon, the negotiators temporarily withdrew to consult with Zelaya and Micheletti. Victor Meza, one of Zelaya’s three negotiators, claimed that negotiators had reached a provisional agreement on the final point of contention—Zelaya’s possible restitution—and simply had to get final approval from Zelaya and Micheletti. Meanwhile, Micheletti’s negotiators said they had completed 90 percent of the agenda and would likely conclude matters by the week’s end, but denied that they had reached such an agreement.

Now, rumors are swirling. Some say that all that remains is for negotiators to agree on the date of Zelaya’s return. Others say that both sides have agreed to renounce the presidency and hand over power to a third party. Declarations and denials abound; the truth remains elusive.

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Soccer and the Political Crisis in Honduras

October 12, 2009

Hondurans had high hopes for two things last week: qualifying for the World Cup and settling the political crisis.  Unfortunately for the catrachos (Hondurans), they came up short in both.  And the country’s two failures mirrored one another.

High hopes dominated Honduras in the run-up to Saturday’s World Cup qualifying match against the United States.  But after coming out hot and scoring first, Honduras surrendered three straight goals.  The team’s captain then sealed its fate when he missed a penalty kick to tie the game with four minutes remaining.  At the end of the night, fans were left incredulous. One television announcer bemoaned the Honduran players’ lack of “emotional equilibrium,” while another commentator pleaded with viewers not to shoot their guns in the air in despair.  Bullets that go up also come down, he explained, without the slightest trace of irony.

Honduras’ loss shared various elements with the latest round of political negotiations, the Guaymuras Dialogue: high expectations, unstable leadership and the specter of more violence.

First, high expectations.  Last week, the mainstream press (which supports Roberto Micheletti) and the country’s politicians made the end of the political crisis appear all but guaranteed.  Dialogue, dialogue, dialogue—this became the welcome mantra after weeks of violence.  But, as in soccer, political expectations can mask reality.

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From Tegucigalpa. Xenophobia and Racism in the Honduran Crisis

October 7, 2009

The political crisis has brought out the worst of Honduras.  The media has already documented many of the country’s ills since June: the reliance on the military to address internal political problems and the sharp polarization with Cold War echoes as well as political violence, repression and censorship.  One nasty phenomenon, however, has slipped under the radar: the frightening nationalist sentiment, xenophobia and racism that have been on display since June 28—the day of the coup.  Hondurans on both sides of this crisis have continually failed to recognize that substantial domestic support exists for both Manuel Zelaya and Roberto Micheletti, and that these domestic forces are willing and able to mobilize themselves.  They have proceeded by first defining “us”—the true Hondurans who

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From Tegucigalpa. Honduran Leaders Fumble, Crisis Worsens

October 1, 2009

Events in Honduras have taken a turn for the worse in the past ten days, and, sadly, there have been no capable leaders from whom Hondurans can expect progress.   Roberto Micheletti and Manuel Zelaya have shown themselves to be political novices without the maturity and intellect to guide this country out of this crisis.

De facto President Roberto Micheletti can’t seem to make up his mind about whether he wants to be a good democrat or a good autocrat.  First, last week, Micheletti let the military and police run amok in the capital.  The result: hundreds of people detained and injured and as many as 10 killed.  Then, on Sunday, Micheletti declared a state of exception in the country, suspending for up to 45 days (with the possibility of renewal) the inviolability of personal freedom, freedom of assembly, free speech, freedom of movement, and due process.  He then proceeded to raid and shut down the two national television and radio outlets that supported Zelaya.  Micheletti’s government also refused to allow entry to an Organization of American States (OAS) delegation to enter the country and demanded that Brazil define Zelaya’s status as visitor.

So far, good autocrat, right?  But Micheletti hasn’t even been able to get that part right.  Less than one day after declaring the state of exception, Micheletti turned on his heels, apologized to Hondurans and said he would try to lift certain provisions this week.  Why?  First, he received heavy international criticism.  As a State Department spokesman lamented, “I think it's time for the de facto regime to put down the shovel. With every action they keep on making the hole deeper.” Second, Honduran congressmen and the Supreme Electoral Tribunal informed Micheletti that the state of exception would leave only two weeks for free campaigning before the scheduled elections, for which they desperately want international legitimacy.  Shockingly, it seems that Micheletti—Honduras’ loudest election cheerleader—had not even considered this.

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Weekly News Roundup from Across the Americas

September 30, 2009

From the Americas Society/Council of the Americas. AS/COA Online's news brief examines the major—as well as some of the overlooked—events and stories occurring across the Americas. Check back every Wednesday for the weekly roundup.

Sign up to receive the Weekly Roundup via email.

Signs of a Solution to the Long Honduran Impasse?

It’s been three months since the overthrow of Honduran President Manuel Zelaya and two months remain until the presidential election. This week’s episode of the Honduran telenovela saw de facto leader Roberto Micheletti issue a decree silencing the opposition media and suspending civil liberties. He also gave Brazil a 10-day deadline to take a position on Zelaya’s status in Brazil’s Tegucigalpa embassy, where the overthrown leader took refuge last week. But, as AS/COA’s Christopher Sabatini blogs for Americas Quarterly, Micheletti seems to have “overplayed his hand.” Honduras’ Congress voiced opposition to the coup and Honduras’ top military commander predicted a resolution within a few days. The Los Angeles Times reports on a meeting held at U.S. Ambassador to Honduras Hugo Llorens’ residence Sunday at which even coup backers' support for the de facto government appeared to waver.

Read an AS/COA analysis about the external players working to forge a solution.

Honduran Presidential Candidate Urges Elections

In an interview with PODER360.com, Honduras’ National Party candidate Porfirio Lobo Sosa says that elections can help the country move beyond the current polarizing political climate. The candidate says that those who question the legitimacy of the elections should recognize the legal process in place to move elections forward.

Hispanic Immigrants: Younger, Healthier, Uninsured

A new study from the Pew Hispanic Center finds stark differences in coverage of undocumented Hispanic immigrants and the general U.S. population. Sixty percent of Hispanics without citizenship or permanent residency lack health insurance and almost half do not have a regular place to go when sick. Most say they do not have a regular healthcare provider because they do not need one, which may relate to the fact that the Hispanic immigrant population is younger and healthier in comparison the overall national population.

Latin America Could Light Path for World Recovery

The World Bank’s top economist for Latin America Augusto de la Torre warned that the global financial crisis could mean that as many as 10 million people in the region could plunge into poverty. However, de la Torre told attendees of the Americas Conference in Miami that many countries in the region “are coming out of this crisis without systemic damage and as more attractive destinations for investment.” He described the Latin American recession as “less pronounced” and attributed economic successes to open markets, sound macroeconomic policies, and a resilient banking system.

Access additional materials from the Americas Conference, where speakers included former U.S. President Bill Clinton discussing international policy related to Haiti and Costa Rican President Óscar Arias offered his perspective on the Honduran Crisis.

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From Tegucigalpa. The Rural Population is the Third Face of Honduras in this Crisis

September 29, 2009

Since Manuel Zelaya’s surreptitious return to Honduras last week, the media has focused on the hordes of Zelaya supporters trying to make their way to the Brazilian embassy in Tegucigalpa and the military and police repression that these would-be protesters faced.  But there are three faces to Honduran society these days, not two.  No doubt, these predominantly urban actors are crucial in this country’s short-term political crisis.  But understanding the broader domestic political reality, and what may follow this crisis, also demands consideration of rural areas.

The first face of the current Honduran crisis is the pro-Zelaya Resistencia (Resistance).  Tens of thousands of Zelaya supporters from all over the country took to the streets this week.  They were met by a repressive military machine.  Hundreds arrested and injured, detainees corralled in the stadium and several people killed—these scenes provided a tragic reminder of the military repression that plagued Latin America in previous decades.  And yet, Zelaya’s supporters remain intent on reclaiming power and going ahead with the constituent assembly that started this mess.  While Tegucigalpa has calmed down after several days of curfews, the Resistance remains a significant political force, capable of mobilizing thousands in Tegucigalpa and other secondary cities and towns.

De facto President Roberto Micheletti’s urban supporters form the second face of Honduras.  This group cheers the military in the streets and refuses to believe that people are being wrongfully detained, beaten or even killed.  Those Micheletti backers who acknowledge these unfortunate events say that repression is the necessary price in the war against Zelaya’s attempt to sow unrest and install chavismo (Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez’ brand of politics).  Unlike Zelaya supporters, these Hondurans recognize the planned November elections as legitimate.  They too are capable of mobilizing thousands of supporters, but their mobilizations also have a strong military flavor. 

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Brazil Takes Center Stage in Honduras' Political Crisis

September 22, 2009

Brazil occupied a central role in Honduras’ ongoing political crisis on Monday when it permitted ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya and members of his family to take up residence in the Brazilian embassy in Tegucigalpa. Zelaya’s return to Honduras has sparked protests outside the embassy that left scores of demonstrators injured on Tuesday. Another 200 people have been detained by police following efforts by de facto President Roberto Micheletti to stifle protests by quickly imposing a curfew on Monday.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defended his government’s decision to grant asylum to Mr. Zelaya, saying that “Brazil only did what any democratic country would do.” The Brazilian President also admitted to speaking with Mr. Zelaya over the phone and to warning the former Honduran leader against doing anything that could provoke an invasion of Brazil’s diplomatic mission.

The Brazilian and international media are reporting on Tuesday that the embassy's lights, water and phones have been cut off and that the only contact is by cell phone. Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorin has said his country will not tolerate any actions against its embassy in Tegucigalpa and that Brazil may ask for a meeting of the United Nations Security Council to discuss the safety of its diplomatic mission. Both Amorin and President Lula are in New York attending the UN General Assembly.

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From Tegucigalpa. Tense Stand-Off in the Run-up to Honduran Elections

September 9, 2009

Three months before Honduras’ scheduled elections, tensions remain high in Tegucigalpa.  Walls and campaign propaganda are covered with pro-Zelaya graffiti; explosives have destroyed several fast food establishments and targeted certain media outlets; and a bomb scare took place near the airport this week.  The military remains positioned at strategic locations in the city, closing streets without prior notice.  While most people’s lives have returned to relative normalcy, groups supporting President Manuel Zelaya and de facto President Roberto Micheletti take to the streets daily.  Schools remain closed from Monday through Wednesday each week, as the teachers unions have allied with other organizations to confront the de facto government.   

Despite these disruptions to daily life, leaders of both major parties support the de facto government, and no governmental institution supports Zelaya’s return.  In Tegucigalpa, most people seem to think that Zelaya’s return is impossible and that elections in November are the only way to end this relajo—the mess that has consumed the country since the end of June. 

But the elections may not resolve this crisis.  On the one hand, supporters of Micheletti’s government note that the elections were organized before the coup—with the candidates, chief among them Elvin Santos (Liberal Party, victor in last year’s primary against Micheletti) and Porfirio “Pepe” Lobo (National Party, loser by a slim margin to Zelaya in 2005)—already determined.  They add that the Supreme Electoral Tribunal remains independent of the Executive, so the elections will still be free and fair.  On the other hand, the Organization of American States (OAS) will likely vote this week—after further sanctions from the United States and Mexico, among others—to declare that the elections will be illegitimate unless they are preceded by Zelaya’s return. 

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An Increasingly Dangerous Game

September 3, 2009

Honduras’ deposed President Mel Zelaya was here in Washington the week prior to Labor Day urging the United States, without a hint of irony, to re-install him in power as soon as possible.  At the same time, he told a late summer audience that as the diplomatic process grinds on without clear prospects for resolution, he was building support for another attempt to re-enter Honduras.  His last two attempts having failed, first by air and then by land, his next option would appear to be by sea, a la Fidel’s famous journey in the Granma.  At the very least, this would do away with a reprise of the Honduran version of the hokey-pokey (you put your right foot in, you take your right foot out, you put your left foot in and then you shake it all about….), or the Python-esque flying circus aspects of his first attempt in July.  On a more serious note, though, during his visit Zelaya also pointedly refused to speculate to the Washington Post’s Mary Beth Sheridan whether or not violence would be a part of his ramped up strategy of return. 

Nonetheless, on September 3 the State Department announced the termination of assistance to Honduras and revoked additional visas.  Prejudging the November elections, Department spokesman Ian Kelly also said that the United States would not be able to support their outcome, suggesting that they would be illegitimate unless a positive conclusion of the Arias process had already occurred.

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Political Upheaval in Honduras: Elections will Help, but Not Cure the Problem

July 23, 2009

Authors: Daniel Altschuler and Javier Corrales

Despite the recent military coup against Manuel Zelaya, Hondurans will most likely elect their next president by the end of 2009. This might end the crisis that led to the coup. But elections will not fix all of Honduras’ political ills. Honduras must also address the decline in the quality of democracy that predates the current crisis, or else it will remain dangerously susceptible to more breakdowns.

On the surface, Honduras prior to this crisis appeared to have moved steadily toward strengthening democracy. From 1982 to 2008, Honduras held seven consecutive civilian elections followed by uninterrupted presidential terms. Honduras also seemed to have tamed its military by the mid-1990s, as civilian leaders had reined in military spending and the military’s political veto power.

The current crisis in Honduras is a stark reminder that democracy entails more than free and fair elections and a military that answers to civilian authority—crucial as these may be. Democracies must also expand the rule of law, citizens’ access to the justice system, state guarantees of civil and political rights, and protections for political minorities. These added aspects of democracy help democracy deliver positive development outcomes and ensure citizens’ political satisfaction. In Honduras, these added aspects were faltering prior to the recent constitutional crisis.

The immediate cause of the June coup was clearly the inability of democratic institutions to rein in a president who was violating the law. The military compounded the problem by expelling the president. But the longer-term problem was a decline in the quality of democracy, which was hampering the political system’s ability to protect citizens and spread prosperity. Poverty remains rampant, corruption pervasive, and crime has gotten worse. In addition, inequality in this vastly unequal society increased during several years in the last decade. And in surveys we have conducted in rural areas, people often report feeling abandoned by an incapable or absent state.

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Arias Mediation Efforts - Not U.S. Sanctions - Offer Best Hope for Honduras

July 7, 2009

Secretary of State Clinton’s meeting today with deposed Honduran President Manuel Zelaya was intended to show the support—visibly—of the United States for a return to the status quo ante, but it also served a more important purpose: by getting Zelaya on board with the idea of allowing Costa Rica’s President and Nobel Laureate Oscar Arias to mediate the constitutional crisis, the United States buys time to consider all appropriate options and actions.  Cooler heads can now prevail, because we’ll presumably be spared additional acts of the theater of the absurd that saw Zelaya circling high above Tegucigalpa with a camera crew from Venezuela’s TeleSur on board and a number of other regional actors on a chase plane in tow. Repeated attempts to return would have been polarizing and unhelpful, potentially adding to the violence on the ground.  And really, do Hondurans of any political stripe need to be lectured about the practice of democracy by the Presidents of Ecuador, Nicaragua, Paraguay, or Argentina? 

Now, everyone can take a deep breath and attempt to resolve the crisis away from the Tegucigalpa tinderbox.

That includes the United States. A number of loud voices have already been heard urging that the United States should attempt to isolate Honduras, cutting off trade, aid, education, military, and other benefits beyond the pause that has already been announced. Others suggest that individuals in the de facto Honduran government should have their U.S. visas yanked.  Some even go so far (quietly) as to suggest that Temporary Protected Status for Hondurans living in the United States should be suspended to pressure the Honduran economy through reduced remittances and the forced return of migrants. 

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Que Importa Honduras! – Obama Administration Strikes the Right Tone

July 2, 2009

Honduras, que importa, right? Does this tiny Central American country warrant all this debate, discussion and media coverage?! Yes, it does, and the Obama administration is right to be defending democracy.

Due attention must be given to the dramatic developments there—not only for the historic regional implications of dealing with a twenty-first century military coup, but for the test of how the U.S. will now conduct its relations in the hemisphere.

Besides being a striking, unsettling reminder of the fragility of our region’s democratic institutions, the event brought to the fore how different the Obama administration’s approach to Latin America is from that of the Bush administration.  

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Panama's New President Takes Office

July 1, 2009

The streets of Panama are empty today as millions await the inauguration of Ricardo Martinelli, winner of the May 3 elections with approximately 60 percent of the popular vote. Martinelli, a millionaire who owns the largest supermarket chain in Panama, has vowed to reform the education system and to give $100 pensions to seniors over age 70. He also has promised to combat crime and improve infrastructure, including a pledge to construct a modern subway system in the capital.

Honduran President Manuel Zelaya—currently in exile after last Sunday’s military coup—will be among the world leaders at the inauguration. Other attendees include: Mexican President Felipe Calderón, Dominican Republic President Leonel Fernández, Colombian President Álvaro Uribe, and Felipe de Borbon, the heir to the Spanish throne.

Martinelli takes office amid high expectations. But some economists are skeptical whether he will be able to fulfill his promises due to the current economic crisis. One item that will certainly be on the agenda is moving forward the U.S.-Panama free-trade agreement.

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Regional Organizations Speak Out Against Zelaya's Removal from Office

June 29, 2009

Just after 10:00 p.m. last night, the presidents of the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA) came together for an emergency meeting in Managua, Nicaragua, to discuss the military coup in Honduras. President Hugo Chávez assured the group that although the member states of ALBA will "do everything that we have to do" to bring President Zelaya back to Honduras and the presidency. This echoes the message from Washington, which has also called for “respect [of] the constitutional order.” The Venezuelan government clarified that it will not militarily intervene “because of the sacred respect for the sovereignty of Honduras."

The overall regional response has been one of solidarity with the ousted leader. The Rio Group, which includes 23 countries from the hemisphere, issued a statement condemning the coup and calling for Zelaya's "immediate and unconditional restoration to his duties." The foreign ministers of SICA (Central American Integration System) also held an emergency meeting and issued a statement strongly condemning the coup, stating that those in power are "against the constitutional and democratic government of President Manuel Zelaya.” The Organization of American States (OAS) called for the “immediate and unconditional return” of Zelaya to the presidency  and will convene a Special Session of the OAS General Assembly on Tuesday . The OAS could potentially suspend Honduras from the organization under the 2001 Inter-American Democratic Charter, which bans “the unconstitutional interruption of democratic order.”

For more information on the coup in Honduras, read Christopher Sabatini's June 29 blog post. The AS/COA has also published a resource guide to the evolving situation.

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Congress Bars President Zelaya from Holding Referendum

June 24, 2009

The Honduran Congress passed a new law on Tuesday, after an unusual late-night legislative session. The measure, called the Ley Especial que Regula el Referéndum y el Plebiscito, establishes specific restrictions on the power of the executive to call for national referendums by prohibiting plebiscites and referendums 180 days before or after a national election.

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