As the U.S. nears its mid-term elections, primetime U.S. media events—the recent debate on the war against ISIS, global terrorism, the international Ebola scare, and the pending approval of the Keystone Pipeline—are making top news fodder in Canada as well. The upcoming U.S. elections on November 4, 2014 are no exception.
With President Obama’s low approval rating, will the Republicans take control of the Senate? If so, Obama enters the real lame duck period of his presidency because speculation about the 2016 race will begin immediately after election night ends.
On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is clearly in the lead for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. Not even Vice President Joe Biden comes anywhere close. Other potential candidates, such as Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, former Virginia Senator James Webb and Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley are marginal, at best. The lack of a real primary contest for the Democrats will make the path to nomination a fait accompli for Ms. Clinton, but it will have the disadvantage of keeping her regularly out of the news cycle. Republicans, on the other hand, are expected to have a real contest with no front runner emerging until late in the campaign.
The paradox is that the Republicans have consistently won the House of Representatives in every election since 1994 with the exception of 2008, when the Obama victory wave swept both houses of Congress. The Senate, however, has been more contentious.
From the Americas Society/Council of the Americas. AS/COA Online's news brief examines the major—as well as some of the overlooked—events and stories occurring across the Americas. Check back every Wednesday for the weekly roundup.
What the U.S. Midterms Mean for Immigration, Hemispheric Policy
AQ’s Jason Marczak writes in the Americas Quarterly blog that Republican congressional victories in the November 2 U.S. mid-term vote could spell setbacks for progress on comprehensive immigration reform. “[I]f the Pledge to America—the Republicans’ legislative agenda unveiled in September—is any indication, the new House leadership’s immigration focus will be on issues of border enforcement, immigration law enforcement and strengthening visa security," writes Marczak. "Plans do not include any focus on creating a path toward legalization of the 11 million undocumented immigrants currently living in the shadows.” In terms of foreign policy, COA Vice President Eric Farnsworth writes in the National Journal’s national security blog to expect a “harder line” with the Republican House, including a reversal on easing restrictions against Cuba, a stronger position against Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, and less efforts to stop the flow of illicit arms into Mexico.
June 1: This AQ-Efecto Naím segment looks at sustainable cities in the hemisphere.