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Promising continued economic growth but reiterating a commitment to greater social inclusion, Ollanta Humala takes office today as president of the Republic of Peru. Fifteen heads of state are to attend, including all the presidents of South America except for Hugo Chávez, who remains in poor health.
Humala, a nationalist former Army officer, won a runoff election on June 5 after campaigning on promises of more fairly redistributing wealth and taxing the windfall profits of mining companies—promises that particularly appealed to residents of rural Indigenous communities. Since then, he has taken noticeable steps to reassure members of the business community, who had feared that his election may dampen the country’s growth and stifle investment. He has said he would not replicate the actions of Hugo Chávez, for example by nationalizing key industries. And in a spate of key cabinet appointments announced last week and earlier this week, including Luis Miguel Castilla—deputy finance minister under outgoing president Alan García—to the post of finance minister, Humala has demonstrated his intention to maintain continuity with at least some of the previous administration’s economic policies.
Even as Humala signals a desire to maintain Peru’s current rate of economic growth (nearly 9 percent in 2010), analysts believe he will reiterate his commitment to income redistribution and social inclusion today. The rate of overall poverty in Peru is more than 30 percent, and stark inequalities between urban and rural areas persist. During his campaign Humala promised to increase the monthly minimum wage from 600 soles ($220) to 750 soles ($272); create pensions for the indigent; and increase spending on social services for the poor through a windfall tax on gold and copper producers. Nonetheless, as Carlos Monge, a researcher at the Centro de Estudios y Promoción del Desarrollo (Center for the Study and Promotion of Development), points out, members of the economic team the president-elect has assembled have not historically shown themselves to be enthusiasts of taxing mine companies.
Humala will face pressure to continue following through on promises to boost spending for the poor. Renee Ramirez, general secretary of Peru’s Education Workers Union, said, “The new government has built up such great hopes that if it doesn’t follow through there’ll be a big divorce…We threw our weight behind Humala but we didn’t write him a blank check.”
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Peruvians go to the polls June 5 for the second round of voting to determine their next president. Early handicappers have Ollanta Humala leading Keiko Fujimori and pulling away. Of course, anything can happen, and five weeks is an eternity in politics. Nonetheless, already a debate is raging whether Humala, should he indeed be elected, will be a Peruvian version of former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva or a Chávez acolyte, or perhaps some sort of hybrid nationalist.
Credit where it is due: Humala has effectively repositioned himself during the campaign as a moderate in the Lula model, rather than the populist authoritarian in the Chávez model who scared Peruvian voters and opened the door to a rehabilitation of President Alan Garcia during the last electoral cycle. Since then he has shed his military garb and taken to wearing suits, disavowed Chávez, and toned down the anti-business, class-warring rhetoric. Investors are not delighted by the choice between him and Fujimori and they are casting a wary eye, but neither are they—yet—running for the exits.