Second Guessing Zetas’ Ties with Iranian Terrorism

Concerns about the potential connection between Middle East terrorism and Latin American organized crime were revived this week when news hit that Iranians had plotted with an individual who they thought was a member of Mexico’s Zetas gang to kill the Saudi ambassador to the U.S. The presumed gangster turned out to be an informant for the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency. In Washington, legislators differed over whether the news demonstrated such a threat. “The fact that elements of the Iranian government targeted a Mexican drug cartel to carry out a high-level assassination is further evidence that the cartels are perceived as terrorists willing to participate in a lucrative, violent scheme inside the United States,” said Congressman Michael McCaul (R-TX). But Representative Henry Cuellar (D-TX) said: “If anything, the Mexicans were trying to help us.”  A statement from Mexico’s Secretariat of Foreign Relations said: “In strict compliance with domestic and international law, Mexico was able to neutralize a significant risk to Mexico’s national security, while at the same time reinforcing bilateral and reciprocal cooperation with the United States.” Bloggings by Boz contends that the connection between Iranian terrorists and Zetas is unlikely, with Mexican drug cartels not wishing to disrupt their lucrative business. “I think the top leadership of the Zetas and others are very aware that any involvement in a bombing on U.S. soil or trafficking of [weapons of mass destruction] would bring a lot of additional focus and resources against them. They certainly wouldn't do it for the price of one truck of cocaine,” he writes.

Abbas on LatAm Tour to Bolster Palestine’s Statehood Bid

President of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas took his fight for Palestinian statehood on the road this week with a Latin American tour that takes him to El Salvador, the Dominican Republic, and Venezuela. But he failed to reach his goal during his first stop in Colombia. Speaking on the prospect of an independent Palestine, Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos stated: “It must be the product of negotiations [between Israelis and Palestinians] because this is the only way to achieve peace,”after meeting with Abbas. Colombia is a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council and Abbas sees Bogota’s support as crucial, given that he needs at least nine out of 15 votes from the Council to gain a recommendation in favor of Palestine gaining UN membership.

New President to Take the Reins in Peru

Peruvian President Alan García thanked his cabinet for its work at their last meeting today, as the country prepares for the July 28 presidential inauguration of Ollanta Humala. The former leftwing firebrand finished revealing a cabinet that Reuters characterizes as more conservative than that of former president of Brazil, Luiz Inácio "Lula” da Silva, to whom the media often compare Humala. The cabinet is anchored by Central Bank head Julio Velarde and Finance Minister Luis Miguel Castilla, both U.S.-trained economists who Humala will carry over from the outgoing García administration. (Velarde will remain at his position, while Castilla moves up from the position of deputy finance minister.) The 12-country South American regional bloc UNASUR will also meet tomorrow in Lima, where they will discuss ways to advance regional integration and poverty reduction. All 12 heads of state plan to attend Humala’s inauguration and the UNASUR meeting, except for Hugo Chávez of Venezuela, who is undergoing cancer treatment.

Read an AS/COA Online News Analysis about Humala’s cabinet picks.

Humala Appoints First Afro-Peruvian Minister in Country’s History

President-elect Ollanta Humala announced that singer Susana Baca will serve as culture minister in his cabinet. A 2002 winner of a Latin Grammy, the singer will be the first Afro-Peruvian to hold a cabinet post in the Andean country.

Puerto Maldonado Shows Another Side of Peru’s Economic Development

In a dispatch for the Summer 2011 issue of Americas Quarterly, Caroline Stauffer profiles the town of Puerto Maldonado in the Peruvian Amazon—an impoverished area where the rapid economic growth of recent years has yet to trickle down. Puerto Maldonado is one of the many places where the local population's perception that development had passed them by contributed to the rise of center-left Ollanta Humala in this year’s presidential elections.

The next issue of Americas Quarterly, focusing on sports in the Western Hemisphere, hits newsstands August 10. 

Colombia’s Congress Tasked with Debating Gay Marriage

Colombia’s Constitutional Court told Congress last night to take up the issue of gay marriage in order to resolve a legal vacuum surrounding same-sex partnerships. The issue remains controversial in Colombia, whre the Constitution specifies that marriage can only exist between a man and a woman. Congress has declined to change the law, despite considering proposals to legalize gay unions six times in recent years.

U.S. House Committee Votes to Defund OAS

During a July 20 markup hearing, the House Foreign Affairs Committee voted in favor of cutting the entire $48.5 million that the United States contributes annually to the Organization of American States (OAS). "Let's not continue to fund an organization that's bent on destroying democracy in Latin America," said Connie Mack (R-FL), who authored the amendment and is among GOP committee members who accuse the OAS of supporting anti-U.S. governments in the Americas. Committee Democrats contend the move signals backing away from multilateralism. “Here we are for a lousy $48 million willing to symbolically turn our backs on our own hemisphere,” said Gary Ackerman (D-NY). Foreign Policy’s Josh Rogin reports that the decision “is only the beginning of what looks to be a long and contentious debate over the fiscal 2012 State Department and foreign operations authorization bill written by chairwoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL).”

Humala Keeps CenBank Head as Mining Stocks Rally

Peruvian President-elect Ollanta Humala said onTuesday he will keep President Alan García’s Central Bank head Julio Verde in his position, sending yet another signal that Humala plans to adopt centrist policies in the style of Brazil’s Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva. Stocks of mining companies with interests in Peru have rallied this month, recovering the losses they suffered when the Lima General Index plummeted on the news of Humala’s election. Humala is expected to announce his economic minister and his chief of staff during the evening of July 20.

Brother’s Scandal Puts Dent in Humala’s Approval Rating

In just one month, Peruvian President-elect Ollanta Humala’s approval rating took a nosedive, dropping from 70 percent last month to 41 percent on Sunday, according to pollster Ipsos-Apoyo. The polling agency attributed the public’s sudden discontent with Humala to the unpopularity of his brother Alexis, who made an unauthorized trip to Russia, in which he represented himself as an emissary of the new government in meetings with officials from Gazprom, Russia’s state oil company.

Chávez Likely to Need Chemotherapy

Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez said he may go through a third stage of treatment involving radiation or chemotherapy, following surgery to remove a cancerous tumor that he described as the size of a baseball. Chávez received extreme unction on Tuesday, saying it would serve to protect his body against malignant cells. Bloomberg analyzes what Chávez’s illness means for his 2012 presidential bid.

China Promises More Funds for Venezuela

Convalescing Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez said over the weekend that Beijing will loan Caracas another $4 billion for development projects, including railway infrastructure. Venezuela will contribute $2 billion of its own funds to the activities. The Associated Press reports that “China has become Venezuela’s biggest foreign lender in recent years,” with $32 billion in exchange for oil shipments. 

Humala’s Brother Meets with Gazprom

President-elect Ollanta Humala returned from a visit to Washington to controversy, after the Russian state-controlled oil company said that Humala’s brother Alexis had visited claiming to be a “special representative of the President-elect of the Republic of Peru.” Ollanta Humala denied that his brother, who studied engineering in Russia and speaks the language fluently, went to Russia as a representative of the Peruvian government.

Victorious Humala Plans SouthAm Travels

The latest numbers from Peru’s electoral authority confirm that Ollanta Humala maintains his lead over Keiko Fujimori, who conceded defeat on Monday. Humala won 51.465 percent of the votes against Fujimori’s 48.535 percent, with 98 percent of the ballots counted. Several Latin American leaders congratulated Humala on his victory and invited him to visit their countries. Humala begins a tour of South America next Wednesday that will take him to Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, and Chile, and then the rest of South America. The goal of the trip will be to strengthen bilateral relations with Peru’s regional neighbors and to push agreements aimed at promoting Peru’s development. Humala also says he hopes to visit the United States. 

Humala gave his first sit-down interview since the election to CNN en Español on June 6, in which he proposed allowing recall elections for the president and legislators, as well as reforming the Peruvian Constitution to allow the state to invest public money. He also said that under his administration military figures will only occupy military positions and there will be “zero tolerance for drugs.” He noted that ex-President Alberto Fujimori, currently serving time for corruption and human rights abuses, will only be transferred to an ordinary jail cell if the courts decide to move him. “We don’t want more divergence. We want unity.” 

Peru’s Stock Market Rebounds after Monday’s Steep Drop

The Peruvian stock market continued to recover Wednesday, after ratings agencies said that President-elect Ollanta Humala’s election would not affect the country’s investment-grade status. The Lima General Index plummeted 12.5 percent on Monday—the largest drop since it was created in 1981—and closed early, after conservative Keiko Fujimori conceded defeat to Humala. The Economist Intelligence Unit explores the meaning of the election for Peru’s economy. 

Read an AS/COA Online News Analysis about Humala’s electoral victory.

Ecuador, Venezuela Oppose OPEC Production Increase

The presidents of Ecuador and Venezuela met this week and released a statement arguing against an increase in oil production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), of which both countries are members. Their statement came a day before a June 8 summit in Vienna, where OPEC failed to ratify a proposal by Saudi Arabia and three other Persian Gulf countries to raise output.

With Peru’s presidential runoff only five days away, the last polls that can be legally published before the vote show that the race is neck-and-neck. The Peruvian polling firm Imasen reported on Sunday that Ollanta Humala of Gana Perú holds a slim 1.3 percent lead over his opponent, Keiko Fujimori of the Fuerza 2011 party. Ipsos Apoyo found a similarly tight race with 50.5 percent supporting Fujimori and 49.5 percent prefering Humala. Approximately 20 percent of Peru’s voters are still undecided.

With polls showing no clear frontrunner, the first and only televised debate on Sunday was seen as opportunity for one candidate to take the lead ahead of the June 5 runoff. However, neither presidential hopeful emerged as a clear winner. Rather than focus on wooing undecided voters, Humala and Fujimori exchanged political jabs.

Humala recalled the human rights abuses and corruption that plagued Peru under Keiko Fujimori’s father, former President Alberto Fujimori. Keiko Fujimori responded by asserting her political independence and casting doubt on her rival’s far-left policies—including taxing the rich and spending heavily on social programs—that she claimed would endanger Peru's strong economic growth rate and scare off foreign investors.

Peru’s elite appears as divided as the electorate. Former president Alejandro Toledo is backing Humala, while his ex-prime minister, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski is supporting Fujimori.