Even famed statistician Nate Silver couldn’t have forecast the first-round results of Brazil's presidential election, which heads to a final runoff vote this Sunday. And not just because the campaign has unfolded with Dickensian complexity—down to the colorful cast of characters, tragic death, and political rebirth. From a scarcity of polling data to the very way elections are held in Brazil, political forecasters here face unique challenges, the results of which have been on display during this volatile election season.
Much of the unpredictability is a product of Brazil being a young democracy. The country's lack of historical election data makes it especially difficult to divine voters' intentions, according to Clifford Young, President of U.S. Public Affairs and former Managing Director for Brazil at Ipsos, a global market and public opinion research firm.
“Nate Silver would have had the same troubles here,” Young said in a telephone interview.
After a 48-hour uprising, inmates at Guarapuava prison in the Brazilian state of Paraná yielded to authorities yesterday and released the 13 hostages that were being held in protest of poor prison conditions. Authorities reached an agreement with the prisoners, complying with at least one of their requests to move 29 inmates to a different penitentiary in Santa Catarina. Other demands included improving facility conditions, such as better food and treatment by guards.
The rebellion began on Monday morning when over 30 prisoners overpowered guards and took other inmates and prison guards hostage, transporting them to the roof where many were hooded and beaten. Only one wing of the penitentiary was overtaken, but close to 80 inmates participated in the uprising over the two days, burning mattresses, among other things.
While the rebellion was the first major uprising at Guarapuava in 15 years, prison rebellions are becoming more common in Brazil, with this being the twenty-first penitentiary rebellion in the state of Paraná this year. According to the International Centre of Penitentiary Studies, 247 out of every 100,000 Brazilian residents are serving time in prison, and Brazil currently has the world’s fourth-largest incarcerated population with 550,000 total inmates—coming in behind the U.S., China and Russia.
At the front of one of Paraná’s largest Pentecostal churches, beneath a ceiling of glowing neon tiles arranged in the pattern of a giant cross, are two ornately framed pictures: one is of a new $300 million, 10,000-seat temple in São Paulo, and another is of a future $122 million, 5,000-seat structure here in downtown Curitiba.
Brazilian evangelicals are looking to the future—but Marina Silva, despite being the sole Pentecostal presidential candidate in the election, is not a part of their plans.
“What we want is someone who can open doors for the church,” Alessandre Freitas, a lead pastor of this congregation of the Universal Church of the Kingdom of God, told me after delivering a fiery two-hour sermon Sunday night that left his voice hoarse. “I think with Dilma it will be better.”
That conviction bore out Sunday when many evangelicals voted for President Dilma Rousseff—who is nominally a Catholic, but also a strong ally to the Universal Church of the Kingdom of God, the nation’s second-largest Protestant denomination after the Assemblies of God (to which Silva belongs). Both are charismatic Pentecostal faiths where pastors and laypeople alike invoke the name of Jesus to heal the sick and chase away demons.
Rather than being motivated by faith to support Silva, many evangelical Christians voted with the conviction that what’s best for the church is a strong and powerful ally in Palácio do Planalto. That meant voting for Dilma Rousseff, who won 41.5 percent of the overall vote, while center-right candidate Aécio Neves took 33.7 percent and Silva captured only 21.3 percent. Because no contender garnered an outright majority, Brazilians will return to the polls October 26 to choose between Rousseff and Neves.
Brazil’s presidential elections lead to runoff: As predicted, Brazilians will return to the polls on October 26 to vote for president in a second round of elections—but in a last-minute surprise, challenger Aécio Neves of the Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (Brazilian Social Democracy Party—PSDB) will face Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff. In Sunday’s first-round election, Rousseff earned 41.5 percent of the first-round votes, while Neves won 33.7 percent and Marina Silva of the Partido Socialista Brasileiro (Brazilian Socialist Party—PSB)—widely thought to be Rousseff’s main challenger—captured only 21.3 percent of the vote. Since Rousseff failed to capture more than 50 percent of the vote, she and Neves will continue to campaign, as will gubernatorial candidates in the states of Rio Grande do Sul, Ceará, and Rio Grande do Norte. Former Brazilian President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, who supports Neves, said Sunday that he hoped Silva would throw her support behind Neves to unseat Rousseff.
U.S. Supreme Court rejects appeals of gay marriage: In a surprising judicial decision on Monday, the U.S. Supreme Court rejected appeals of lower court decisions reversing same-sex marriage bans in five states—Indiana, Oklahoma, Utah, Virginia and Wisconsin. As a result of the decision, the number of U.S. states permitting same-sex marriage increases to 24, plus the District of Columbia. The court’s decision will likely also permit same-sex couples to marry in Colorado, Kansas, North Carolina, South Carolina, West Virginia, and Wyoming, where appeals courts have already struck down the states’ same-sex marriage bans. Although the U.S. Supreme Court could still hear future cases on same-sex marriage, its decision today sends a strong message to lower court judges that “rulings striking down marriage bans are consistent with the U.S. Constitution.”
Domestic renewable energy market opens in Chile: This week, new legislation in Chile that opens up the country’sdomestic renewable energy market to Chilean homeowners is now in effect. In late September, the Chilean Controller approved regulatory language to implement Law 20.571, which provides incentives for Chilean homeowners to install renewable energy sources and will allow “residential generators” in Chile to connect their energy systems to the grid and receive payments for surplus electricity. Last month, Chile also became the first South American country to tax carbon dioxide emissions in an attempt to encourage cleaner sources of energy and cut greenhouse gas emissions. Presently, about 80 percent of Chile’s energy is generated by fossil fuels.
Missing Mexican college students may be buried in mass graves: Mexican authorities have discovered six mass graves in Iguala, Mexico that may contain the bodies of dozens of college students who were training to be teachers and who went missing last week after deadly protests in Guerrero state. While 15 of the missing students were later located alive, another 43 students are still missing. So far, at least 28 bodies have been recovered from the mass graves, but Guerrero state Health Minister Lázaro Mazón said it could take weeks before the remains are identified. Meanwhile, two hitmen interrogated by authorities admitted that they killed 17 students on orders from a leader of the Guerreros Unidos gang shortly after the protests.
Peruvian elections marred by violence and corruption: Sunday’s municipal and regional elections in Peru have highlighted political corruption and drug violence in the Andean nation, where at least seven gubernatorial candidates are currently under investigation for drug trafficking or related crimes. The Friday before the elections, Shining Path rebels ambushed a four-vehicle police convoy, killing two and wounding five officers tasked with protecting election materials in the Apurimac and Ene River Valley in Ayacucho, where over half of Peru’s cocaine is produced. Before the election, two mayoral candidates from coca-growing towns were also assassinated. According to independent watchdog group Transparencia, 1,395 of the 126,000 candidates running in Sunday’s elections were convicted of a crime.
New mining district to be created in Catamarca: The government of Catamarca province in Argentina will create a provincial mining district to help advance two mining projects in the region—the Agua Rica and Cerro Atajo projects. Catamarca's government has signed a memorandum of understanding with the Canada-based Yamana Gold, which has a stake in both mining projects. The agreement would establish a working relationship between Yamana and the government, create a combined entity that includes the Agua Rica and Cerro Atajo projects, and would enable the state-owned provincial mining company CAMYEN to own a maximum 5 percent stake. Yamana is considering devloping the Agua Rica project in conjunction with others, though the project is currently 100 percent owned by Yamana.
Entry into the Casa Chico Mendes Museum is free, but it’ll cost you $20,000 to visit the environmental activist’s assassin. He lives down the street—if you’re interested.
I was. I recently visited Brazil’s dusty Wild West town of Xapuri to look into the legacy of Francisco “Chico” Mendes, most famous defender of the Amazon rainforest and an inspiration to a generation of environmentalists—most notably Marina Silva, who may be the next president. How Brazil treated the memory Mendes—and his assassins, who have brazenly returned to their nearby ranch like characters from an old cowboy film—might provide a glimpse into the nation’s concern for environmentalism and activism, and maybe also into the candidacy of Silva.
In the 1980s, Mendes had rallied rubber tappers and Indigenous people in the Amazon to forcefully resist the encroachment of farmers and cattle ranchers, who were clearing a football field-sized swath of forest every second and spewing carbon dioxide pollution into the atmosphere. Mendes is an official national hero and a world-recognized activist, so I thought it was reasonable to also expect him to be revered in Xapuri.
“Chico Mendes has been a symbolic force for people all over the world,” the international environmental advocate Casey Box told me. “Other nations see him as a major force against industries and pushing back against aggression. He’s had a global reach.”
But in Xapuri itself, I couldn’t even find a postcard of Mendes for sale. While Box said he recalled seeing an Indigenous activist in Indonesia wearing a Chico Mendes t-shirt, the only Brazilian I’ve ever seen wearing a Mendes t-shirt was a staff worker at the Casa Chico Mendes Museum, which is where the activist was blasted by a twenty-gauge shotgun in front of his wife and children days before Christmas in 1988.
The result was conclusive from Brazil’s fifth and final presidential debate last night, which started at 11 pm so as not to conflict with the soap opera “Imperio”: Sunday’s election is too close to call. (And also, candidates’ plans for Brazil’s future are less important to Brazilian telenovela fans than the fictional future of Rio de Janeiro’s rich and famous.)
So to get a sense of what voters are thinking ahead of Sunday’s vote, I ambushed a few Brazilians filling up their vehicles at the gas stations here in Curitiba. In any democracy, the choice at the ballot box often reflects which candidate is best for a voter's wallet, and many of Brazil’s 143 million voters will be directly affected by what the next president does to the price of government-regulated gasoline and oil.
The number of cars in Brazil grew by 123 percent over the past decade to 80 million, meaning that the price at the pump increasingly influences Brazilians’ choice on the ballot. Drivers can directly attribute today’s pump price to President Dilma Rousseff, who in 2011 set an artificially low sales price for gasoline that cost state oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras) tens of billions of dollars a year, but kept many of her constituents happy.
That includes Aminadabe Marcante, an attendant at Presidente gas station in central Curitiba, who told me that he’ll be voting for Rousseff because he doesn’t want change in this election. “I don’t have time to watch TV or debates,” Marcante said. “I’m voting for Dilma because she’s been good for the poor.”
Dilma, Dilma, Dilma, Neves, Sil-.
The letters in this sentence roughly represent the proportion of free TV airtime that each of Brazil’s three major presidential candidates—President Dilma Rousseff and challengers Aécio Neves and Marina Silva—receives to advertise, based on their party’s representation in government.
Because Silva’s Partido Socialista Brasileiro (Brazilian Socialist Party—PSB) has minimal representation in the lower house of Congress, she only gets a two-minute window in the 25-minute block of free campaign advertising that’s broadcast on TV twice a day every day. President Dilma Rousseff gets nearly six times as much, thanks to the popularity of her Partido dos Trabalhadores (Workers’ Party—PT). Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (Brazilian Social Democratic Party—PSDB) candidate Aécio Neves, the other top challenger, gets about four and a half minutes.
Yet while Brazilian electoral rules for political TV advertising give Rousseff a clear advantage in her bid for re-election on October 5, the latest polls show Rousseff in a statistical tie against Silva, whose political rise has drawn parallels to the 2008 candidacy of Barack Obama.
By many comparisons, however, Obama had it easy. He was not battling an incumbent, and he had plenty of time to build up the largest campaign war chest in history, with few barriers on how to spend it. Silva, who would also be her country’s first black president, has the least campaign funding of any major candidate and a major disadvantage in advertising on TV, which is how most Brazilians consume their news.
Brazilian Environment Minister Izabella Teixeira stated yesterday that Brazil will not sign a global anti-deforestation initiative that will be announced at the United Nations Climate Summit today. Teixeira affirmed that the UN failed to confer with Brazil on the matter and instead simply gave the country a copy of the document and requested that they endorse it without the possibility of modifications.
Charles McNeill, a UN Development Program adviser on environmental policy, refuted the claim, stating that the UN attempted to contact Brazilian government officials without success. McNeill highlighted Brazil’s importance for any anti-deforestation plan, given its significant role in defending and maintaining the Amazon rainforest, and noted that they will continue to attempt to garner the support of Brazil and other countries until the December 2015 climate change negotiations in Paris.
In an interview, Teixeira differentiated between legal and illegal deforestation and asserted that “our national policy is we want to stop illegal deforestation.” The country’s main concern with the pending UN initiative is that it will limit legal, controlled deforestation, thus harming the logging industry. The environment minister noted that Brazil is already working unilaterally to reduce deforestation to 3,900 square kilometers (963,711 acres) per year by 2020, compared to 5,843 square kilometers (1,443,837 acres) recorded between August 2012 to June 2013.
Various companies, countries and environmental advocacy groups are expected to pledge support for the anti-deforestation proposal today.
New technology and capital has boosted shale gas and tight oil production in the United States and Canada—a phenomenon dubbed the “shale revolution.” This revolution has important geopolitical implications and has shifted North America’s energy outlook from one of scarcity to one of abundance.
The rest of the Western Hemisphere is also sitting on expansive shale reserves, but these areas have not yet been fully exploited. A recently released AS/COA Energy Action Group Report, “Shale Gas Development in Latin America,” explores these issues in depth.
Within the Western Hemisphere, the primary point of comparison for Latin American countries looking to develop shale gas resources is the United States, where, in 2014, over 20,000 horizontal wells are expected to be drilled, according to RBC Capital Markets. This compares to 250 unconventional wells in Argentina and just 10 in Colombia that are expected to be drilled during the same time period. Investors spent $90 billion in the United States on developing shale gas in 2012 alone; in contrast, foreign direct investment in Latin America last year, in every sector, totaled $180 billion.
In addition to the U.S. and Canada, Argentina, Brazil and Mexico are among the 10 countries in the world with the greatest technically recoverable shale gas resources; together, they make up approximately 40 percent of the world’s total supply. Colombia also has significant potential.
This week’s likely top stories: Venezuela is expected to win a seat on the UN Security Council; Brazilian President Rousseff and Marina Silva are tied in a new poll; U.S. deportations are at their lowest level since 2007; Santander’s new chairwoman will maintain the bank's current strategy; Ecuadorian President Correa asks supporters to mobilize against anticipated protests.
Venezuela likely to earn seat on UN Security Council despite critics: As the 69th Session of the UN General Assembly opens in New York this week, Venezuela is poised to gain a long-awaited seat on the UN Security Council. At a meeting in July, Venezuela obtained unanimous regional support for its candidacy to represent Latin America. While the country still has to gain a two-thirds majority in a secret vote among all 193 UN member countries, there is no rival candidate in the region and Venezuela is likely to win. Critics of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro are concerned about his impact on the Security Council, given the current human rights allegations against his administration. When Venezuela tried to gain a seat in 2006, the U.S. successfully blocked the attempt, claiming that Venezuela would be a “disruptive” influence. U.S. President Barack Obama will preside over a UN Security Council summit the week of September 22.
President Rousseff and Marina Silva tied in recent poll: Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff and her chief political challenger, Marina Silva, are now statistically tied in the polls as Brazil’s October 5 presidential elections approach, according to a poll released Friday by the Instituto Brasileiro de Opinião Pública e Estatística (Brazilian Institute of Public Opinion and Statistics—Ibope). The poll indicates that in a run-off vote, Silva would receive 43 percent of the vote while Rousseff would take 42 percent—a much closer race than the previous nine-point gap that put Silva in the lead. In the likely event that no single candidate wins a majority of votes on October 5, a run-off election will take place on October 26.
U.S. Deportations at lowest level since 2007: U.S. immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officials reported that ICE deported 258,608 immigrants between October 1, 2013 and July 28, 2014—the lowest level reported for that 10-month period since 2007, and the greatest decline in deportations since President Barack Obama has been in office. Last year, 320,167 people were deported from the United States during the same period. More than 2 million immigrants have been deported during the Obama administration, but a White House spokesman said that the president’s decision to shift resources to the border to deal with an influx of unaccompanied minors from Central America may be one reason for the recent decline in deportations.
Santander’s new chairwoman says bank will stick to strategy: After the death of former Santander chairman Emilio Botín, newly-appointed chairwoman Ana Botín said on Monday that she would continue her late father’s strategy to increase international diversification and maintain the bank’s generous dividend policy with shareholders. On Monday, shareholders also agreed to buy 25 percent of the bank’s Brazilian unit, Santander Brasil, for $6 billion. The bank has major operations in ten countries, including Brazil, Mexico and Argentina, and reported a 22 percent increase in profits in the first half of 2014.
Correa calls on supporters for impending protests: Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa on Saturday asked supporters to rally against expected workers’ protests against his government this coming week. Ecuadorian workers’ organizations are planning a Jornada Nacional de Movilización (National Mobilization) on Wednesday to mobilize for labor rights and to call for reforms to the country’s penal code, water policies, and education system, among other concerns. “If there are 3,000 of them on Wednesday, there will be 30,000 of us,” Correa said.
June 1: This AQ-Efecto Naím segment looks at sustainable cities in the hemisphere.