This week the Brazilian Congress was scheduled to vote on a bill to amend the country’s forestry code. It is a bill that has evoked passionate debate.

But yesterday, yet again, that vote was delayed after a congressional shake-up in which President Rousseff replaced her coalition’s leaders in each chamber. Since last November, the vote has been delayed for a variety of reasons including criticisms from the scientific community, environmental experts and a subtle political international pressure. No new date has been scheduled as of the publication of this post.

Dating back to 1965, the current forestry code is credited with saving huge swaths of the Amazon rainforest. The proposed modifications, while originally intended to increase protection of forested areas, was changed in its drafting to allow areas to be farmed even if they were illegally logged before July 2008.

For the ruralistas, the powerful Brazilian agribusiness sector, it is a more realistic code for a key sector that represents 22 percent of Brazilian GDP.  For environmentalists, such as former presidential candidate Marina Silva, it will foster deforestation by reducing conservation areas and granting amnesty to those who cut down trees in the past.

Brazil, the world´s leading beef producer and second soya exporter after the U.S., has become a powerful global food supplier. The consequences of the new forest code could be felt not only domestically, but also abroad.

Last week I met Ms. Silva in her new office on the second floor of a shopping mall in the north of Brasilia. She told me why she is fighting the new proposal and the reasons she is campaigning for President Rousseff to veto the new code if it is approved.

Morales: Why do you oppose the new Forest Code?
Silva: Since 1965 we have a law to protect forests in Brazil. The new forest code reverses the logic: it is a law to facilitate farming.

(An English version of this post is forthcoming.)

A edição de 13 dezembro de 2010 da Revista Época trouxe como manchete uma análise sobre os 100 mais influentes brasileiros do ano. Com cinco opções de capa, a revista dá ao leitor a opção de comprar a versão com a presidente Dilma Rousseff; a do cineasta José Padilha, diretor dos filmes Tropa de Elite 1 e 2; com o empresário Eike Batista, considerado a 8ª pessoa mais rica do mundo e finalmente a capa com o jogador santista Neymar Júnior. Mas, o que de fato chama a atenção não é o recurso publicitário acima mencionado, e sim o fato de que praticamente não há negros nessa edição especial.

Com exceção da ex-ministra Marina Silva, fenômeno das últimas eleições presidenciais, e do jogador Neymar, que ocupa a tradicional parcela de negros no campo das celebridades futebolística, todos os outros 98 escolhidos pela equipe da revista são brancos. Como disse certa vez, em entrevista, o ator negro Milton Gonçalves, “nós não estamos na fotografia do poder”.

Pela lógica da revista , a  população negra brasileira deve, portanto, contentar-se em ler histórias de sucesso de seus patrícios não-negros e ícones do Brasil que “deu certo”, como a de Eduardo Saverin, bilionário, co-fundador  do Facebook, de apenas 28 anos; David Neeleman, que colocou a companhia Azul em terceiro lugar no mercado de aviação brasileiro; de Alexandre Behring, que comprou ações da empresa americana Burger King - reforçando a nova imagem do capitalismo brasileiro no mercado Global - além de tantos outros “euro-ascendentes” que contribuíram para o desenvolvimento do Brasil em 2010. Até na música, tradicional reduto negro na mídia, sobrou para os cantores negros Margareth Menezes e Carlinhos Brown apenas fazerem comentários elogiosos sobre Ivete Sangalo e a roqueira Pitty, respectivamente.
 
Como se vê, se tomarmos apenas essa reportagem como referencial, conclui-se que o Brasil termina a última década de século XX como se estivesse ainda no século XIX: sem negros nos espaços de poder, apesar da retórica conservadora de que somos uma democracia racial.

The following is a translation of Paulo's post originally written in Portuguese. Read the original  version.

The biggest surprise of the presidential elections in Brazil was the performance of Marina Silva, candidate of the Green Party (PV). The former environmental minister unexpectedly won almost 20 percent of voters to take the contest to the second round. The former PT (Workers’ Party) member, who ironically also carries a "Silva" as her surname, prevented the first-round victory of President Lula’s candidate, Dilma Rousseff, and postponed the presidential selection of South America’s most populous nation to October 31.

What made the "case" for candidate Marina even more interesting for political scientists is why candidate Dilma Rousseff’s victory over José Serra was taken for granted by analysts and statisticians. However, the numbers have not been able to predict the "Marina" phenomenon, which was inspired in many ways by the election of Obama through the use of social networks, speeches directed toward young voters and the focus on so-called sustainability. Strictly speaking, Marina took many votes from Dilma who counted on President Lula’s government and his nearly 80 percent approval.

Marina Silva was until recently unknown to the general public, since her party, the PV, was established in Acre, one of the country’s most distant states located in the far north. In this election, however, candidate Marina "lost winning" and is already being courted by both major political parties to give her endorsement. These parties have shared power for 16 years with the two administrations of Fernando Henrique Cardoso and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Marina, in fact, got what she wanted. She helped to balance the PT-PSDB relationship, and did more than expected in this first attempt to reach the Presidential Palace.

She has history. Coming from a poor family like Lula, Marina became literate at age 16, majored in history and was the companion of environmental leader Chico Mendes. In this election, she became the third way between political giants and developed a campaign that could be considered exemplary in terms of market and online mobilization.

However, what most analysts are still trying to understand is how far Marina’s “green wave” was not helped by the remarkable growth of the Evangelical segment, which now represents 19 percent of the population. This is because, apart from being a poor, black nortista and ex-maid, Marina is also an Evangelical, a religious identity that overwhelmingly grows in the C and D economic classes and in the outskirts of Brazil.

In the case of this election, rumors on the Internet that Rousseff was anti-Christian and pro-gay marriage triggered a conservative anti-Dilma wave. This helped Marina.

Moreover, there is also the case for many progressive voters, who generally vote for the PT, but were disappointed with the corruption in Lula’s administration and sought a new center- left alternative: Marina. For these voters, Marina is the hope of continuing the Lula administration’s social policies without corruption fears.

The question that remains now in the second round is whether Marina Silva will support Dilma and the PT, with whom she had serious disagreements on environmental issues, or José Serra (PSDB), who she criticized for years by branding him as a conservative and neo-liberal.

The puzzle is not easy. According to first-round results, Serra would need to get 85 percent of the votes from Marina to prevail in the next round, while Dilma only needs 20 percent. Over the next few days, the media’s eyes will be looking for an announcement from that frail-looking, young lady who showed her strength in an election that seemed to have marked cards.

* Paulo Rogério is guest blogger for AmericasQuarterly.org. He is the founder of the Instituto Mídia Étnica in Salvador, Brazil, and wrote in the Winter 2010 issue of Americas Quarterly. Read his AQ article.

Do Brasil. O fenômeno Marina na eleição  presidencial brasileira

A maior surpresa das eleições presidenciais do Brasil foi o desempenho da candidata Marina Silva do Partido Verde (PV). A ex-ministra do Meio Ambiente conseguiu um resultado inesperado no pleito de 2010 ao abocanhar uma fatia de quase 20 por cento de eleitores e levar a disputa para o segundo turno. A ex-petista, que ironicamente também carrega um "Silva" como sobrenome, impediu a vitória, no primeiro turno, da candidata do presidente Lula, Dilma Rousseff, e adiou para 31 de outubro a escolha do chefe, ou da chefe, da mais populosa nação sulamericana.

O que tornou o “case” da candidata Mariana ainda mais interessante para os cientistas políticos é porque a vitória da candidata Dilma Rousseff sobre José Serra era tida como certa por analistas e estatísticos, porém os números não foram capazes de prever o fenômeno "Marina" que foi inspirado, em vários aspectos, na eleição de "Obama", seja pelo uso de redes sociais, do discurso pautado no eleitor jovem e no foco na chamada sustentabilidade. A rigor, Marina tirou muitos votos de Dilma—que contava com aprovação do governo do presidente Lula que beirava os 80 por cento.

Marina Silva era até pouco tempo desconhecida do grande público, pertence a um partido pequeno (PV), além de ser um quadro político formado no Acre, um dos mais distantes estados da federação que fica no extremo norte do país. Nessa eleição, entretanto, como disse na campanha, a candidata Marina "perdeu ganhando" e já está sendo cobiçada para manifestar seu apoio pelas duas maiores agremiações políticas do Brasil que já se revezam no poder arrogantemente há 16 anos—com duas gestões de Fernando Henrique Cardoso e Luíz Inácio Lula da Silva. Marina, de fato, conseguiu o que queria, balançar a hegemonia (PT-PSDB), e fez mais do que o esperado nessa primeira tentativa de chegar ao Palácio do Planalto.

História ela tem. Vinda de uma família pobre, assim como Lula, Marina se alfabetizou com 16 anos, formou-se em história e foi companheira de luta do líder ambientalista Chico Mendes. Nessa eleição, tornou-se a terceira via entre gigantes partidários e fez uma campanha que pode ser considerada exemplar do ponto de vista do marketing e da mobilização on-line.

Porém, o que os principais analistas ainda estão tentando entender é até que ponto a "onda verde" de Marina não foi ajudada pelo notável crescimento do segmento evangélico, que já representa 19 por cento da população brasileira. Isto porque além de ser oriunda das classes populares, negra, nortista e ex-empregada doméstica, Marina também é evangélica, identidade religiosa que cresce de sobremaneira na classes C e D e nas periferias do Brasil.

No caso dessa eleição, boatos na internet de que Dilma Rousseff fosse anti-cristã e a favor do casamento gay, provocaram uma onda convervadora anti-Dilma que rendeu bons frutos para Marina - que usou igrejas como palanque eleitoral.

Por outro lado, há também o caso de muitos eleitores progressistas, que sempre votaram no PT, mas que ficaram decepcionados com os casos de corrupção na gestão de Lula e buscaram uma nova alternativa ainda no campo centro-esquerda, no caso Marina. Para esses, Marina é a esperança da continuidade das políticas sociais do governo Lula, mas sem o ônus da corrupção.

A pergunta que fica agora é se no segundo turno Marina Silva apoiará a candidata Dilma do PT, com quem teve divergências séria sobre questões ambientais ou o candidato José Serra (PSDB) ao qual teceu severas críticas durante anos tachando-o de conservador e neoliberal.

O quebra-cabeça não é fácil. Serra precisaria obter 85 por cento dos votos de Marina para virar o jogo eleitoral, já Dilma, precisa apenas de 20 por cento para se tornar uma das mulheres mais poderosa do mundo. Nos próximos dias os olhos da mídia estarão atentos para o pronunciamento daquela jovem senhora, de aparência frágil, que mostrou sua força numa eleição que parecia ter cartas marcadas. Nesse jogo eleitoral vamos ver quem vai "ganhar ganhando".

* Paulo Rogério Nunes é blogger convidado do AmericasQuarterly.org. Ele é fundador do Instituto Mídia Étnica em Salvador, Brazil, e é um dos autores na edição de inverno de 2010 da revista Americas Quarterly. Leia seu artigo na AQ.

Although stocks are not likely to be affected by yesterday’s election, the Brazilian real is likely to continue appreciating ahead of what will now be a second round of voting.

Catching some observers by surprise, presidential candidate Dilma Rousseff, the former chief of staff to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, received 46.9 percent of total votes cast in national elections on Sunday—just shy of the 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff election against former São Paulo Governor José Serra. Mr. Serra won 32.6 percent of the votes, followed by Green Party candidate Marina Silva, who captured 19.3 percent.

Going into the election, the Brazilian real, traded at about 1.68 per dollar, its highest level since the September 2008 financial crisis in the United States. This is a clear change from most past elections that have been preceded by market jitters.

With the presidential decision now on hold until a second round on October 31, the government is unlikely to make any moves that could affect the exchange rate. "In the near term, the Brazilian real is likely to continue to strengthen as the government will put off any announcements of policies to help weaken the currency," said Doug Smith of Standard Chartered Bank.

Stay tuned for more election coverage from AQ Blogger, Paulo Rogerio.

(Homepage photo by Roberto Stuckert Filho.)

Marina Silva, a former environment minister who left President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s government in 2008, announced today that she is leaving the President’s Workers' Party (PT) and “in talks with the Green Party in this period of transition" —a move toward what may be a possible presidential run in next year’s election. According to a Datafolha poll released last weekend, a Silva candidacy (3 percent support) would trail that of the current Chief of Staff Dilma Rousseff (37 percent—PT) and São Paulo Governor José Serra (16 percent—Brazilian Social Democracy Party).

Adding to the speculation, the former Brazilian culture minister and renowned artist Gilberto Gil said that “the possibility exists” that he would join Marina Silva as her vice-presidential candidate if she invited him, as reported by Brazil’s Folha de São Paulo. “She wants to talk about her candidacy, about the party, about the Green Party” he said. “I haven’t received an invitation yet, but if she does extend an invitation, I prefer to tell her directly.”

Marina left her post in Lula’s government over disagreements with Lula’s environment agenda, while Gil, winner of seven Grammy awards, left in 2008 to dedicate himself to his music.