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Stasis Across the Straits
January 8, 2009
by Christopher SabatiniOn January 1, 2009, the Cuban government celebrated the 50th anniversary of Fidel Castro and Ché Guevara’s triumphant march into Havana that marked the end of the reign of Fulgencio Batista’s dictatorship and the beginning of the Cuban revolution. The occasion was quite frankly sad, not just for what it said about a revolution that has persisted despite its failures, but also for the persistence of U.S. policy that seems almost designed to prop up the Castro brothers.
The two phenomena—a regime and a policy both frozen in time—co-exist in mutual dependency. The Cuban government and its geriatric leadership (average age over 70) has been able to blame the chronic failures of its failed economic system on U.S. policy, deflecting legitimate popular frustration with food shortages, lack of medicine, lack of opportunities, and economic stagnation.
At the same time, the January 1 celebration came just 20 days before Fidel Castro will see the inaugeration of 11th president of the country that since the early 1960s has sought his removal from power by all means possible. Assasination plots, an invasion by former countrymen, isolation, and an economic embargo established first in 1960 and tightened in 1996 with the passage of the Cuban Liberty and Solidarity Act (otherwise known as the Helms-Burton Law) are among the least surreal.
The Helms-Burton law established strict conditions under which U.S. economic and diplomatic relations would be restored with Cuba. These included the release of political prisoners, restoration of civil and human rights and a credible commitment to free and fair elections. In the last eight years President George W. Bush has added new restrictions limiting the remittances Cuban-Americans can send to the island and their travel to the island.
Now, don’t get me wrong. I understand the stated goals of these restrictions: denying the Cuban government the resources to repress its own citizens. Nor do I believe in a wholesale lifting of the embargo in response to the minimalist reforms initiated by Raúl Castro last year. Over 200 political prisoners remain in Cuban jails. Arrests and detentions for acts as simple as signing a petition, expressing opinions publicly or gathering in groups to discuss politics remain a daily occurrence. These are not the U.S.’s or even President Bush’s fault.
But the Cuban regime and U.S. policy have real victims. In the case of the former, it’s the democratic activists and their families who have courageously decided to stay on the island and struggle for political change at great professional and even personal cost. And in the latter it’s Cuban families, some of them balseros, who have braved their own trials to now find themselves cut off from their own relatives. On the 50th anniversary of the revolution these are the people worth considering—not the liver-spotted leaders still sitting on the Council of Ministers or a commitment to a policy that has lasted 10 different presidents. How do we change their daily reality?
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Don’t treat the wolf in
Don’t treat the wolf in sheep’s clothing as you would a lamb
If the government of Havana were really interested in some kind of relationship with Washington then it would have taken serious steps. There are various international forums where they can talk without making so much noise, as happened with the statements made by Raul Castro recently.
I have no doubt that the government of President Obama will have many problems with the old long ruling Cuban leadership; it will be a great challenge for them to deal with a young president, smart and –moreover- African American. The Cuban government is inherently racist. Afro-Cubans hold no real political or economic power in the country. There is a widely used phrase among government officials: "You Blacks are people because the Revolution brought you down from your tree and gave you food and education.” Is there anything in the world more racist that this?
Although I have no place in judging US policies towards Cuba, some thoughts are required.
The aid to dissidents, political prisoners, and democrats is very important, as is the pressure to limit the Cuban regime’s access to financial resources used to oppress the Cuban people. But there is something that is lost in all this: the Cuban opposition, harassed, repressed, and restrained, does not have the capacity of mobilization that is needed, and this is where the project towards the promotion of democracy and a real change in the Island falls short.
If you want a real change, the current leadership at different levels – the military, the members of the Party, and the Communist Youth- should be taken into account, identifying those who desire
political change in the country.
The thousands of young people who leave the island venturing into the sea on a raft and those inside the many prisons, at some point in their lives were members of the: Pioneers, Committee in the Defense of the Revolution (CDR), Communist Party militants, military or the police, or distinguished workers.
The equation may seem complex; it is not. The opposition is the fire that heats the boiler –as the most advanced among the dissenting- but it is from within the spheres of power that the regime will change.
We must –by necessity- count them in. I think it would be naive to proclaim the ways to do it, but the design of the scenario with all the variables expressed here is definitely already on the table of some bold analyst.
At the moment I see no signs of change in Cuba that might warrant a gesture by the U.S. government. A unilateral action, a gesture of good-neighborliness would be a false message to the rulers of Havana. We should not reward bullying, blackmailing or political pressure from the Latin American left. I find it shameful, cynical and hypocritical that politicians at the level of President Bachelet and Lula da Silva turn their heads to what is happening in Cuba. Of course I don’t mention the usual accomplices –Chávez, Correa, Evo Morales and Daniel Ortega- well known allies of the Cuban regime.
Let us hope that prudence will reign in the White House with regard to the subject of Cuba. I know of the myriad of problems that the new Administration will confront, but if they are not clear and firm in their actions, they will have to also face a huge migration wave caused by the economic debacle of the Cuban system.
Chavez aid to Cuba -19 billion dollars to the present- will not continue at this pace, due to current oil prices. This will undoubtedly cause pressure within the island. The other day one analyst said: "If Fidel bankrupted the Soviet Empire, what will not happen to Venezuela.” A well aimed commentary.
This is the time to utilize both the system's weaknesses and the strengths and opportunities the opposition possesses.