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Archive

From issue: Connectivity and the Digital Divide (Winter 2009)

AQ Feature

Ask the Experts: How will the Internet Change in the Next Five Years?

 Evan Hansen

Top 10 List of the Internet's New Frontiers

Evan's Top Ten:

1. Data Is Supplanting Web Pages

The Web is less and less a “place” made of up “sites” that “surfers” find and explore; it is increasingly a collection of data that we can fetch whenever we want, in any format. Think RSS on steroids. Care to see the latest news headlines but linked to the locations where the events took place and superimposed on a map? No problem. In this new environment, Web destinations become Web services, whether you’re thinking of news, entertainment, travel, shopping, politics, or anything at all.

2. Data Filtering

With the emergence of the Web as a data service, effective filtering becomes paramount. RSS readers are already buckling under the pressure of too much information. Three primary modes of filtering will dominate: 1. Peer recommendations that identify community preferences by aggregating activities from a large body of contributors (Google PageRank, Digg, Last.fm); 2. Predictive tools that estimate preferences from the past behavior of individuals (Netflix, Amazon, GoogleWiki); 3. Selected expert opinions that set recommendations unilaterally from a small group of authoritative sources (traditional media). Of these, peer recommendation is the one to watch.

3. Data Portability

Social networking sites like Facebook and MySpace will continue to grow, but closed social destinations will give way to distributed social applications available anytime, anywhere. The so-called social graph—conceived as a map of everyone and their relationships to everyone else—will start to become defined and eventually made pervasive, establishing authenticated and persistent identity across the Web. For now, the major players here are Facebook Connect and Google Friend Connect, with Facebook in the driver’s seat. The social graph will improve trust and insert greater social responsibility into online interactions and activities. It will also enable and extend social data filtering, improving and refining community-based peer recommendation engines. Plug-ins are already available that allow friends to share recommendations and reviews in real time, such as Glue, which surfaces your friends’ suggestions while browsing products on Amazon.

4. Microblogging

Peer recommendations are being driven by new tools for self-expression that provide simple ways for individuals to comment on anything that catches their fancy and share it with the world. Twitter (microblogging), del.icio.us (link sharing), and FriendFeed (personal feed aggregation) have created a massive expansion in user activity and notification that forms the basis for generating bottom-up rankings and comparisons.

5. Digital Assistants

The new mode of Web interaction implies not only finding information but acting on it. New services will emerge that take personalized filters to automate transactions, such as ticket purchases. For example, an entertainment service could scan the Web searching for local events, such as an appearance by a favorite band, and automatically book tickets before they are sold out. Or it might look for special deals on flights, send a notification at a specific trigger price (say $500), and then purchase the tickets.

6. Mobile Web

As Web sites evolve into Web services, they will become pervasive, available to the end-user anytime, anywhere. Improvements in wireless broadband and enhancements in handsets such as RFID and ubiquitous GPS will deliver a true mobile Web experience and create new location-based services. Mobile computing resources will continue to grow, turning the mobile devices into fully fledged computers. Demand for custom applications from Apple’s iPhone Apps store will explode.

7. Online Video

Media companies will continue to experiment with unfettered Internet video distribution, including HD (Hulu), moves that will eventually dissolve the distinction between TV and the Web and unleash new regulatory battles over the Internet’s underlying infrastructure. Like data and voice, video is poised to become just another application on the network. This will put new data strains on ISPs and heighten service conflicts with consumers. As costs and congestion increase, key regulatory battles loom over net neutrality, ISP traffic-shaping policies, bandwidth caps, and peer-to-peer distribution.

8. Broadband Competition

The U.S. needs to beef up its broadband infrastructure. The way to do that is create more competition. Cable broadband providers such as Comcast are rolling out higher-speed protocol known as Docsis 3.0, and Verizon is laying optical fiber to the home through its FIOS service, bringing 50Mbps residential service to markets that previously topped out at 8Mbps or less. In the end, however, the real future of broadband competition is wireless and will be fueled by newly opened “white spaces” and continued investment in WiMax.

9. IPv6

The Web is running out of IP addresses, and will require a new convention within the next two years. The transition will create a new opportunity to bolster Internet security, while sacrificing ease-of-use and a few widely used features that will no longer be supported when the old IPv4 protocol is ultimately retired. This is already starting to happen, and many new devices and software applications support the new protocol, known as IPv6.

10. Cloud Computing

Software is moving from the hard drive and onto the network, a trend that will accelerate for both consumer and business markets. Millions of consumers already use Web-based email like Yahoo Mail and online photo storage such as Flickr and SmugMug, among others. Now Google and start-ups like Zoho have taken a foothold with office applications such as word processing and spreadsheets. Infrastructure for hosting and running business-grade cloud computing is also gaining ground thanks to services like Amazon’s S3 hosted storage service and EC2 Web application environment, and the race is on to provide software development tools for producing business-grade cloud computing applications.

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Great

Thank you for sharing this post, I'll tune in more often.

Maybe they can

Maybe they can discover new things and the internet will be bailed. At the current pace of the economy it is difficult to accomplish anything. I think you should be more weighed in accepting new technologies. Disadvantages do not affect the planet we live on.

Great read

Hi, thank you for sharing, look forward to reading more material.

Hi

Took me time to read all the comments, I really enjoyed the article. It proved to be very useful to me and to all those who wrote comments. It's always great when you can not only be informed, but also entertained!

New Generations

Technology evolves very fast. I'm sure that there's more to come in the next five years especially on the web.  Nothing is impossible with technology.

No 1 and 5

No 1 and 5 are really obvious. We can see the signs from now,  I am mostly interested in number two.

Is this article really from

Is this article really from 2003? If so, it's terribly out-of-date; especially item #10. Guess they didn't forecast the largest decline on our economy since the great depression. Joseph, Senior Developer 

very informative post about

Very informative post about the future of the net. 

As Web sites evolve into Web

As Web sites evolve into Web services, they will become pervasive, available to the end-user anytime, anywhere. Improvements in wireless broadband and enhancements in handsets such as RFID and ubiquitous GPS will deliver a true mobile Web experience. 

Will be major changes. Things

Will be major changes. Things have already started moving. My opinion is that anyone should escape the monopoly of Google. It is most dangerous at this time.

Broadband and Internet

I agree with the amazing amounts of change that is going to happen in the future of internet providers and the other 9 topics. I do think we will see the most change in how we receive our internet eventually using a tool such as searching internet providers by zip code. I doubt the most change will happen in the next 5 year but maybe more like 10-15 years to see the full expansion of the internet.

Re:

The Web is less and less a “place” made of up “sites” that “surfers” find and explore; it is increasingly a collection of data that we can fetch whenever we want, in any format. Think RSS on steroids. Care to see the latest news headlines but linked to the locations where the events took place and superimposed on a map? No problem. In this new environment, Web destinations become Web services, whether you’re thinking of news, entertainment, travel, shopping, politics, or anything at all.

I heard that many

I heard that many organizations are already developing/changing their networks to support IPV6, that's a good procedure, since they won't have problems later.

Nice post. May be you say

Nice post. May be you say right that in future our internet may be fast and creative. This is good news for online workers, free lancers and all internet surfers.

Interesting article here,

Interesting article here, really enjoyed it! I am in hope that the broadband gets cheaper in Japan they have speeds 10 times as fast and are paying what we currently pay it's hard to believe. All the best. 

While it is hard to predict

While it is hard to predict the future of the internet, one thing for sure is that some of the big names in the industry today may not be around as new entrants with innovative technologies take over. Search will be more personalized with machine learning capabilities.

I think CSS will grow even

I think CSS will grow even larger we we will just start to see the power of how HTML5 starts to kick flash to the curb. I think google wave will have started a trend and group conversations will become much more common than one on one. It will be great to see even how my site will change and do business online.

nice post

Today you have 3G and wireless broadband and such an array of services you probably think that there's not much left but companies keep surprising you and dishing out faster much quicker internet speed really predicting anything that's achievable in the next 5 years could be that its here tomorrow. Search will be more personalized with machine learning capabilities.so that people in general are happier, healthier, and more productive.

Very Good info

Some very good predictions here but if one thing is for sure people will become more reliant on the internet in every day life and the more reliant a person becomes one something the more vulnerable they become. Thanks

I hope broadband gets cheaper

I hope broadband gets cheaper in Japan they have speeds 10 times as fast and are paying what we currently pay it's really ridiculous. I think cpa affiliate network systems will grow i remember back in the 90's thinking i should add some coupons to a few sites and now that whole market is huge.

I don't doubt that its

I don't doubt that its getting more and more mobile, but I wonder if wireless and 3g will become the standard compared to broadband internet that may remain in everyones homes.

Search will be more

Search will be more personalized with machine learning capabilities.

change to come

Wow, in this ten bullet points you summarize well these mega trends that are shaping technology in the near future, from online games to data retrieval. I never thought about it this way, but this really shows that there is still a lot of change to take place, and our information technology systems will soon be radically different.

The internet has been

The internet has been evolving fast, and the opportunities that you can get from it is endless. You just need to have creative ideas and put them to act, not tomorrow but today! 

I’m impressed, you know what

I’m impressed, you know what you’re talking about. Jack

Thanks, very interesting

Thanks, very interesting article.

better question

A better quesiton to ask is how will the internet change us over the next five years?

SEO Copywriting

Knowing all these intensified my desire to become an SEO copywriter. I've been a newsletter writer for quite some time now, and I want to use my skill in a medium that only gets better and bigger through the years. 

CHECK

there's not much left but companies keep surprising you and dishing out faster much quicker internet speed really predicting anything that's achievable in the next 5 years could be that its here tomorrow.

well worth the read. thank

well worth the read. thank you very much for taking the time to share with those who are starting on the subject. 

good

if one thing is for sure people will become more reliant on the internet in every day life and the more reliant a person becomes on something the more vulnerable they become.

Education will be online

Because the Internet can deliver information more quickly, at a lower cost, whenever a learner wants, as often as a learner wants, and with more interaction and dialogue, the Internet will replace the traditional in-person classroom delivery system as the dominant mode of delivery for education and delivery. But the Internet will not replace in-person learning. 

Broadband or wireless

There's no doubt that it is going to change hugely in the next 5 years, and I think a large amount of what you mentioned will be more like 1 or 2 years ago. In 5 it could be completely unrecognizable. I don't doubt that its getting more and more mobile, but I wonder if wireless and 3g will become the standard compared to broadband internet that may remain in everyones homes.

You're Right

You are right. The internet is becoming much more than just a collection of webpages. The interactivity of it all will soon mean that most forms of communication will be through the internet and they will merge together, increasing the blurring between them.

interesting

Thanks, very interesting article.

thanks you nice article

thanks you nice article

Future

Amazing article, can't wait to see how things emerge in the future and how we are are going to approach the issue when faced directly with it. 

Thanks a lot for the great

Thanks a lot for the great post man.

this is exactly what i was

this is exactly what i was looking for and will help me in the future thanks

this is exactly what i was

this is exactly what i was looking for and will help me in the future thanks

The internet has already

The internet has already changed beyond what we ever thought. Today you have 3G and wireless broadband and such an array of services you probably think that there's not much left but companies keep surprising you and dishing out faster much quicker internet speed really predicting anything that's achievable in the next 5 years could be that its here tomorrow. The UK mobile broadband providers are really giving such good services that you really cannot expect more but there too there are newer better services you have to say internet today is at its peak. Keith.

10. Cloud Computing

Cloud computing is very good option, but I am quite suspicious about the technology. Can anyone define it briefly.

Hi there,

Very interesting to read. I enjoyed well while reading. I will recommend my friends to read this one for sure. 

The real-world interaction of

The real-world interaction of the internet and the 'long tail' of the Semantic Web will enable everyone to find the perfect job for them, the right opportunity, so that people in general are happier, healthier, and more productive. 

Good interpretation

Well explained about the internet usage in future..Broadband and other internet connection will change to great extend and it will going to improve on other hand we can have much easier access to online video and other mobile applications as well... 

Great information...

Some very good predictions here but if one thing is for sure people will become more reliant on the internet in every day life and the more reliant a person becomes one something the more vulnerable they become.
Kind regards, Andy Moquin Circle of New York

I think every business will

I think every business will be online. All the markets will be online. The internet is growing so fast in the world.

Pretty good post. I just

Pretty good post. I just found your site and wanted to say that I have really enjoyed browsing your posts.In any case I’ll be subscribing to your blog and I hope you post again soon!

Hi

Just want to thank you for very informative post, regards Ed

Thanks what a great little

Thanks what a great little article


 
 
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