Likely top stories this week: Former President Michelle Bachelet wins Chile’s presidential elections; Protesters rally in support of ousted Bogotá Mayor Gustavo Petro; USAID plans to pull out of Ecuador by September 2014; the FARC’s 30-day ceasefire goes into effect; a study finds that Mexico leads the world in kidnappings.
Michelle Bachelet Wins Chilean Elections: Former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet won Sunday's runoff election to become president of Chile again, easily defeating conservative opponent Evelyn Matthei with 62 percent of the vote. Matthei, meanwhile, captured only 37 percent of the vote—the poorest showing by the Chilean Right in two decades. Bachelet served as president from 2006 to 2010 and left office with an 84 percent approval rating, and will be sworn in in March 2014.
Thousands of Colombians March For Mayor Petro: Supporters of Bogotá's recently-dismissed mayor, Gustavo Petro, rallied in the streets last Friday to protest Petro's removal from office. On December 9, Inspector General Alejandro Ordóñez accused Petro of mismanagement of Bogotá's trash collection system and barred him from holding political office for 15 years. Protesters say that Ordóñez, who is not an elected official and is an ally of former Colombian President Álvaro Uribe, has no authority to remove Petro from office.
USAID Makes Plans to Leave Ecuador: The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) is expected to pull its $32 million aid program out of Ecuador by September 2014, according to a letter written Thursday by USAID Mission Director Christopher Cushing. The move comes six months after Bolivian President Evo Morales ordered USAID to leave his country. USAID has not been successful at renegotiating its contract with Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa, and Correa has said he suspects the organization of meddling in his country's affairs.
FARC Ceasefire Begins: A 30-day ceasefire by the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia—FARC) began on Sunday as the rebels continue peace negotiations with the Colombian government in Havana. The ceasefire was declared on December 8 after a rebel bomb in the department of Cauca killed nine people. However, the rebels have said that the removal from office of Bogotá Mayor Gustavo Petro, a former M-19 guerrilla, will have an impact on the peace process. The Colombian government, meanwhile, will continue its operations against the FARC.
Mexcio Leads the World in Kidnappings: The new RiskMap 2014 report from the security company Control Risks found that Mexico had more kidnappings-for-ransom than anywhere else in the world this year, followed by India, Nigeria, Pakistan and Venezuela. Twenty percent of all kidnappings that happened in the world this year occurred in Mexico, according to the report.
The Colombian Government on Tuesday accused the leftist Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia—FARC) of plotting to kill former President Álvaro Uribe. Defense Minister Juan Carlos Pinzón said he had met with Uribe to inform him of “the detection of a plan by the FARC's Teofilo Forero Mobile Column to make an attempt on his life."
The plot was revealed amid tense peace negotiations between the Colombian government and the FARC that have been taking place in Havana since last November. Uribe, who waged a fierce war against the FARC during his presidency from 2002 to 2010 and reduced the rebel group’s ranks by half, has been an outspoken critic of the talks. Minister Pinzón said that Uribe and his family would receive whatever security they needed in addition to their standard 300-person detail.
The news comes less than a week after the government and the FARC reached a key point in peace negotiations by agreeing on a framework for the creation of new political parties to represent disarmed rebel groups. The other four items to be on the agenda include disarmament, illicit drugs, rights of the victims and peace deal implementation. The president of the Colombian Congress, Juan Fernando Cristo, said that if the plot is confirmed, “we have to demand that the [FARC] negotiators in Havana explain it to the country.”
The Colombian government and the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia—FARC) reached a key point in peace negotiations this Wednesday, as the two parties agreed upon a framework for the creation of new political parties to represent disarmed rebel groups. The issue of political integration was previously highlighted by Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos as a primary goal for the negotiations, which he hopes to conclude by the end of this year.
The talks began in Havana last November, and have stalled numerous times as the parties have sought to reach an agreement to end the country’s fifty-year-old armed conflict. According to the Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica (National Center for Historical Memory), the conflict has killed 220,000 people and has displaced hundreds of thousands more. Political experts believe the integration agreement will boost public support for the negotiations, which has declined in recent months due to increasing criticisms from opposition parties ahead of the 2014 presidential elections.
Humberto de la Calle, chief negotiator for the Colombian government, said the talks will lead to a “new democratic opening,” adding, “Never again politics and weapons together.” Chief FARC negotiator Iván Márquez also voiced his support for Wednesday’s development, saying it was “an important step in the right direction to end the conflict and to achieve a real democracy in Colombia.” In addition to agreements on land reform and political integration, the parties hope to conclude negotiations by the end of 2013 on the remaining issues of disarmament, drug reform, reparations for victims, and peace plan implementation.
Likely top stories this week: Military operations expand into a Rio de Janeiro favela; Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner takes a month-long medical leave from office; Colombia-FARC negotiations advance in Cuba; Mexican tax reform faces new opposition; IMF warns against the threat of a U.S. debt default.
Rio de Janeiro Expands Military Control of Favelas: A peaceful military operation was conducted on Sunday in the Lins de Vasconcellos favela of Rio de Janeiro, home to approximately 15,000 residents. Authorities have already established 34 Unidades de Polícia Pacificadoras (Police Pacification Units—UPPs) across the Rio de Janeiro metropolitan area—and now plan to install two in Lins de Vasconcellos—in an effort to promote public security for the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympics. UPPs came under public criticism recently after 10 military police officers were accused by public prosecutors of torturing and killing Amarildo de Souza, a resident of the Rocinha favela.
Argentine President Takes Medical Leave: Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner was ordered by doctors to take a month-long leave of absence after they confirmed she had suffered a head trauma. Vice President Amado Bodou will assume presidential responsibility during Kirchner’s absence. The announcement precedes midterm congressional elections scheduled for October 27 during a political low for Kirchner’s governing coalition. The group recently reported its worst performance in ten years, having received just 26 percent of national votes in the electoral primaries.
Colombian Government and FARC Leaders Resume Peace Talks: Following disagreements that resulted in a two-week stall in peace talks between the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia—FARC) and the Colombian government, FARC Chief Negotiator Iván Márquez announced this week that both parties have agreed to resume negotiations. The talks began 10 months ago in Havana, Cuba, and have now been recorded in a 25-page document that includes agreements on the key issue of land reform. Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos said he hopes to conclude negotiations by the end of the year, with the ultimate goal of the FARC surrendering all weapons in exchange for legal and political integration.
Mexican Tax Reform Faces New Opposition: Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto’s proposed tax reforms face new opposition from the Partido Acción Nacional (National Action Party—PAN). The plan seeks to promote annual economic growth beyond 5 percent by reducing government subsidies for national energy production and raising annual revenue by 1.4 percent from increased sales and income taxes. The PAN has cited concerns that the tax reform bill would disproportionately burden middle-income families by imposing new taxes on private education tuition, mortgages and home rentals.
IMF Warns against A Possible U.S. Debt Default: IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde has warned against the looming threat of a U.S. debt default and the damaging effects it could have on the global economy as the U.S. Congress remains stalled in negotiations over a government shutdown. A recent report by the U.S. Department of the Treasury also warned against what would likely be the country’s worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, noting, “a default would be unprecedented and has the potential to be catastrophic.” In a recent speech, Lagarde said the U.S.’s ability to reach an agreement on the debt ceiling was “mission critical” to global economic growth and stability.
The Constitutional Court of Colombia, the country’s highest court, ruled yesterday that peace talks with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia—FARC) are constitutional, rejecting a legal challenge that would have stalled negotiations in ending over 50 years of conflict.
The decision comes after several weeks of the court listening to intense debates over the Legal Framework for Peace, an amendment approved in Congress last year that modified the constitution to lay the groundwork for a negotiated peace with the FARC. Human rights groups have challenged this framework, with concerns that the reform will lead to institutionalized impunity for many guerilla fighters responsible for kidnappings, massacres and attacks. Gustavo Gallon, a lawyer with the Colombian Commission of Jurists, had presented the formal legal challenge that was up for debate.
The law formed the basis of the peace talks between the FARC and the Colombian government. Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos says that the court’s decision allows the country to move forward with these important peace negotiations. He emphasizes that the country will need to find the “middle point between justice and peace that enables us to put a definitive end to this conflict.”
Likely top stories this week: Six people die in “La Bestia” train accident in Mexico; Colombia-FARC peace talks resume in Havana; Venezuela and Palestine sign energy deal; Roberto Azevêdo will become the new WTO director; and public consultations on energy reform begin in Mexico.
Six Dead and 22 Injured in “La Bestia” Train Accident: On Sunday, at least six people were killed and 22 were injured in the derailment of the cargo train known as “La Bestia” (The Beast) in southern Mexico, a train that is notorious for transporting Central American migrants through Mexico and to the U.S. border. According to official sources, at least 16 of the passengers injured in the accident were nationals of Honduras between 20 and 30 years old. Public Security Minister for Tabasco State Audomaro Martinez Zapata said that thieves had stolen the nails and metal plaques from the tracks, which led to the accident. Migrants’ rights activists demanded immediate measures to put an end to the risks that undocumented migrants face when traveling across the country, and criticized the Mexican government for not taking this issue seriously. On Sunday, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto lamented the accident via Twitter and expressed his solidarity with the victims’ families.
Colombia-FARC Talks Resume after Crisis: On Saturday, lead Colombian government negotiator Humberto de la Calle announced that the talks between the Colombian government and the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia—FARC) would resume in Havana on Monday. This statement put an end to one of the biggest crises to afflict the peace process since it began in November 2012, which was prompted when Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos’ proposal last week that any peace agreement must be put to a national referendum. On Friday, the FARC announced that it was putting the peace talks on hold to study the referendum proposal. In response, Santos stated that the FARC is not entitled to “dictate pauses and impose conditions” on the negotiations, and ordered his team of negotiators to return to Bogotá to evaluate the implications of a hiatus in the peace process. So far, the talks are advancing at a slow pace and negotiators have only been able to reach a partial deal on one of five points in the agenda. Still, both sides have remained at the negotiation table, raising hopes for an end to the five-decade-long armed conflict.
Venezuela and the Palestinian Authority Sign Energy Deal: On Saturday, Venezuela and the Palestinian Authority signed an energy agreement that will allow Venezuela to sell oil at a “fair price” with “flexible repayment terms” to Palestinians, as well as provide expert advice and training for the fuel management and handling. The deal was signed during a meeting between Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elias Jaua and his Palestinian counterpart, Riyad al-Maliki, while al-Maliki is on a tour of Latin America. During his trip to the region, al-Maliki also met Ecuadorian Minister for Foreign Affairs and Human Mobility Ricardo Patiño and Guyana’s president, Donald Ramotar. Venezuela, Ecuador and Guyana are among several countries from Latin America and the Caribbean that recognize Palestine as an independent state.
Roberto Azevêdo to Become New WTO Director: Next Sunday, Brazilian diplomat Roberto Azevêdo will become the new director general of the World Trade Organization. Azevêdo has served as Brazil’s ambassador to the WTO since 2008 and was selected in May to become the first Latin American to lead the WTO. In August, Azevêdo announced the appointment of four deputies, who will assume their posts in October: Yi Xiaozhun of China, Karl-Ernst Brauner of Germany, Yonov Frederick Agah of Nigeria and David Shark of the United States. One of Azevêdo’s main objectives in his new position is to revive the stalled Doha Round trade talks. In a recent statement, Azevêdo said that regional and bilateral trade accords obstructed efforts to revive global trade talks and “steal the attention a little from the multilateral system.”
Public Consultations on Energy Reform began in Mexico: On Sunday, Mexico’s Party of the Democratic Revolution (Partido de la Revolución Democrática—PRD) began the first phase of a citizen consultation on the country’s fiscal and energy reforms. The set of energy reforms presented by Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto on August 13 would open Mexico's energy sector to foreign investors. The fiscal reform seeks to increase Mexico’s tax take by about 4 percentage points of GDP as a means to channel more resources towards education, health and infrastructure projects at the federal, state and municipal levels. Jesús Zambrano, the president of the PRD, called citizens from all parties to participate in the consultation. Members of the PRD have different positions from President Peña Nieto on both the fiscal and energy reforms and hope the result of the consultations will be taken into account by the central government. The first phase of the consultation took place in almost 3,000 centers installed in parks, plazas and metro stations in Mexico City and in the states of Coahuila, Campeche, Guanajuato, Querétaro, Colima, Nuevo León, Sonora, Nayarit, and Tabasco. A second phase of consultations will begin next Sunday.
Likely top stories this week: Venezuelan opposition agrees to participate in corruption debate; Chilean presidential candidate Evelyn Matthei registers her candidacy; Humala’s popularity reaches a new low; peace talks resume in Colombia; and environmental groups seek a referendum to prevent drilling in Ecuador’s Yasuní National Forest.
Public Debate on Corruption in Venezuela
On Saturday, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro announced that he would ask the National Assembly for an enabling law to combat corruption, and challenged the opposition to participate in a public debate to discuss the government’s nationwide anti-corruption campaign. The Venezuelan government has made over 100 corruption-related arrests in the last month, including several political and media figures associated with the opposition.
On Sunday, Julio Borges, the national coordinator of Primero Justicia, said the opposition would participate in a public debate on corruption, and called on the president to “tell us the time and location” for a discussion on national TV and radio. According to Henrique Capriles, opposition leader and governor of Miranda State, recent anti-corruption efforts are a strategy to divert public attention from other pressing problems such as insecurity and inflation. Capriles’ offices are currently under investigation for corruption.
Evelyn Matthei Officially Registers her Candidacy
On Sunday, the candidate for the Unión Demócrata Independiente (Independent Democratic Union—UDI), Evelyn Matthei, officially registered her candidacy for the Chilean presidential election on November 17. Matthei was accompanied by leaders of UDI and Renovación Nacional (RN)—the two parties that constitute the ruling Alianza coalition. After registering her candidacy, Matthei gave a speech that recognized the current lead of former president and current presidential candidate of the Nueva Mayoría coalition, Michelle Bachelet. Still, Matthei expressed hope of taking the election to a second round of voting. If no candidate secures half of the votes in the first round, a second round of voting would be held in mid-December.
Humala’s Popularity Reaches a New Low
On Sunday, the latest Ipsos-Perú survey published by El Comercio revealed that Ollanta Humala’s popularity dropped to 29 percent, the lowest during the two years of his presidency. Despite the government’s recent military win again the Shining Path terrorist group, the president registered 4 percentage points less popular support than in July 2012. The survey also revealed that first lady Nadine Heredia’s popularity dropped to 38 percent, and Lima Mayor Susana Villarán continues to have one of the highest disapproval rates in the country, which reached 69 percent in August.
New Round of Colombian Peace Negotiations
On Monday, the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia—FARC) begin a new round of negotiations in Havana to discuss topics such as political participation. This is one of the most controversial items in the peace agenda as it involves negotiations around the incorporation of the rebel group into the country’s democratic system. According to Humberto de la Calle, the lead government negotiator, the FARC must surrender their arms and reach agreements around the five topics of the agenda to participate in Colombian politics. President Juan Manuel Santos sent a message to the FARC stating his commitment to the negotiations, but warned that the military fight will continue in the interim.
Environmental Groups in Ecuador Vow to Save Yasuní Program
On Sunday, environmental groups, human rights groups and Indigenous lawmakers threatened to take Ecuador’s government to international court over a plan to drill for oil in Yasuní, a protected part of the Amazon rainforest that is believed to hold some 900 barrels of oil—about a fifth of Ecuador’s total reserves. The actions follow President Rafael Correa’s statement last week that the government was abandoning the Yasuní-ITT Initiative, a long-term commitment to refrain from drilling in the rainforest area if the international community came up with $3.6 billion to offset some of the foregone benefits of the oil money. The president said that “the world has let Ecuador down,” as just $13.3 million has been delivered to the country. In the coming days, Correa plans to ask the National Assembly to declare crude-oil exploitation in the Yasuní as a "national interest." In response, some of Ecuador’s Indigenous lawmakers have called for a national referendum to decide on the issue.
Top stories this week are likely to include: Brazilian protests expand across the country; Ecuador approves a controversial new media law; FARC negotiators aspire to Northern Ireland-style ceasefire; U.S. Senator Marco Rubio says immigration bill needs to contain stronger border security provisions; Ecuador’s foreign minister travels to London.
Brazilian Protests Grow: Hundreds of protesters gathered outside the national stadium in Brasilia on Saturday at the beginning of the opening Confederations Cup match between Brazil and Japan to protest the growing cost of living in Brazil, as well as public expenditures for major sporting events set to take place in Brazil, like the World Cup and Olympic Games. Brasilia’s new stadium reportedly cost $600 million to construct. Authorities said that at least 15 people were arrested in Brasilia on Saturday, but the match continued without disruption and ended with Brazil’s 3-0 victory over Japan. The protests come two days after protests against bus fare increases in São Paulo led to hundreds of arrests.
Ecuador Approves Media Law: Ecuador's congress approved a controversial new media law in a 108-26 vote on Friday. The law will create official media overseers and impose strict limits on the percentage of licenses granted to private radio and TV companies. The Ecuadorian government has called the law a “milestone” and said it would make media in the country more democratic. However, press freedom groups and members of the political opposition have said that the new measure, which they characterize as a “gag law,” will have a chilling effect on free speech and dissent.
FARC Aspires to Northern Ireland-Style Ceasefire: FARC negotiator "Andrés Paris" said Sunday that he hoped that the negotiated peace process between the guerrillas and Colombian government will be inspired by the ceasefire that the Irish Republican Army (IRA) agreed to in 1994, resulting in an official end to the conflict four years later. The FARC is calling for a major constitutional reform before they join the political process, and said they would not participate in the 2014 presidential elections unless this happens. So far, the Colombian government has resisted their proposal.
Rubio Calls Immigration Law "95 Percent Perfect": U.S. Senator Marco Rubio said in an interview Sunday that the comprehensive immigration reform bill currently being debated in the U.S. Senate is "95 percent perfect," but needs to contain stronger provisions for border security. Meanwhile, fellow Republican Senator Lindsay Graham said that a perception that the Republican Party is responsible for blocking passage of the bill would add to the party’s “demographic death spiral.” On Thursday, the Senate majority rejected a proposal to make border security a precondition for the legalization of undocumented immigrants.
Patiño to Meet With Hague, Assange in London: Ecuadorian Foreign Minister Ricardo Patiño is arrived in London on Monday and will meet with his British counterpart, William Hague, to discuss bilateral relations. Patiño also met with Wikileaks founder Julian Assange, who is still living in the Ecuadorian Embassy after more than a year in an attempt to avoid extradition on charges of sexual assault. Assange told Patiño that he was prepared to spend five more years living in the embassy if necessary. Meanwhile, Ecuador’s ambassador to the UK, Ana Alban, announced last week that she would leave her post before Ecuador decides whether to extend political asylum to Assange.
On Wednesday, after a nearly two-week recess, the Colombian government and the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) resumed peace talks in Havana, Cuba, with this ninth round seeking to reach an agreement on agrarian reform. Talks originally began in November 2012.
Only the first of five items on the agenda at the talks, agrarian reform is one of the most controversial. The negotiations have been delayed twice as the two parties have struggled to agree on methods for land redistribution and restitution. Discussions around agrarian reform also seek to address plans for rural development as well as infrastructure and land improvement. Other topics include promoting agricultural production and establishing a social security system for rural areas to include health care, education, housing, and poverty eradication. The current round of talks is scheduled to continue through May 25.
In addition to agrarian reform, talks must still find compromise on four other agenda items: ensuring political participation of members of the rebel group, combatting drug trafficking, ending armed conflict, and compensating victims of conflict.
The talks resume just a day after President Juan Manuel Santos called on negotiators to speed up the negotiations, which were initially expected to conclude by November 2013. On Tuesday, Santos also urged the rebels to disarm, stating that, ultimately, no peace agreement could be reached otherwise.
Fighting has continued in Colombia since the negotiators last met. A member of the FARC leadership, Leonidas Zambrano Cardozo, also known as "Caliche," was killed in a clash with soldiers in southwest Colombia on May 4 and clashes between the FARC and Colombian police throughout the country on Tuesday left five FARC members and a police officer dead.
Two decades ago, when political scientist Francis Fukuyama proclaimed the end of history and declared that democracy had triumphed over fascism and communism, Marxist guerrilla groups listened. Many of them shed political ideology and turned to illicit mining, drug trafficking and kidnapping for ransom. Since then, facing military and political pressures, these groups have largely demobilized. And now the last Marxist-led rebellion in South America might come to an end as the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia—FARC) negotiates for peace with the Colombian government in Havana, Cuba.
The negotiators face an uphill battle. Not only have numerous past negotiations between the FARC and Colombian government failed to deliver durable compromise, but, historically, successful bargains in civil wars across the world in the last century have proven to be rare and improbable. According to the civil war scholar Barbara F. Walter, only 17 of 41 civil wars between 1940 and 1990 contained formal negotiations for peace. Negotiations produced settlement agreements only eight times.
One reason for this is that civil wars differ from other wars. Negotiated settlement in civil war, unlike that in inter-state war, typically includes the complete dismantlement of the armed forces of the losing side. Whereas parties to international wars retain, post-conflict, the security that their respective militaries and territorial sovereignty allow, one side in a civil war loses all ability to defend itself. After dismantling their army and surrendering their conquered territory, combatants face increased vulnerability and diminished ability to verify the other side’s compliance with the settlement. A rational actor will not commit to agreements if it cannot be assured of the other side’s compliance as it transitions from strength to weakness.
The FARC has experienced this before. When several FARC factions disarmed in the 1980s to form a political party, their visibility and vulnerability made them perfect targets. Drug lords, paramilitary groups and government troops slowly exterminated the group.