Although he won’t assume Peru’s presidency until July 28, a poll released yesterday by Peruvian firm Ipsos Apoyo reveals that President-elect Ollanta Humala enjoys a 70 percent approval rating with five weeks to go before his inauguration. Sixty-one percent of the electorate also believes he will govern moderately, similar to former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Investors’ fears that he would drift toward Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez’ style of leadership temporarily crashed Peru’s stock exchange two weeks ago today.
Political observers in Peru warn that Humala will have to juggle several demands to satisfy the population. First, he will have to maintain the calm in the business sector to ensure steady commercial growth and foreign direct investment—one of the highest rates in South America. Second, Humala will also have to address the social concerns of the Peruvian people, such as a staunch fight against corruption.
The latter is an issue that Humala advocated for strongly in the presidential campaign, particularly in the runoff against Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of corruption-tainted ex-President Alberto Fujimori. Seventeen percent of the electorate disapproves of Humala while 13 percent remain undecided.
With 89.2 percent of the ballots counted from yesterday’s presidential runoff election in Peru, first-round winner and Gana Perú candidate Ollanta Humala leads first-round runner-up and Fuerza 2011 candidate Keiko Fujimori by a less than 3 percent margin.
Shortly after midnight yesterday, Humala declared victory in downtown Lima and delivered a speech to supporters in which he pledged to fulfill his commitments to the Peruvian people. Fujimori has vowed not to concede until Peru’s official electoral body, Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (ONPE), declares a winner. An ONPE interactive map shows Keiko winning in the capital Lima and surrounding areas as well as in northern coastal regions. Humala won by large margins in rural areas and in highland cities. Currently, Humala leads by nearly 375,000 votes out of roughly 14 million ballots counted.
If Humala’s lead holds, his victory would signify a rebuke of outgoing President Alan García’s economic policies, which are credited with sustaining high growth levels, but also criticized for doing little to combat poverty and economic inequality. A survey last month revealed that only 22 percent of Peruvians believed that the García model should be replicated by his successor.
Analysts say Humala’s success at the polls in some of Peru’s closest-ever elections is due to the excitement his campaign generated as opposed to Fujimori’s candidacy which some say “lacked feeling.” Also, Humala largely avoided talking last week about his controversial economic policies, choosing instead to focus on combatting poverty and corruption.
This morning, the Bolsa de Valores de Lima (Lima Stock Exchange) temporarily suspended operations after its value declined by 8.7 percent mere moments after opening for morning trades.
In the final weeks of a bruising presidential campaign, human rights activists and democracy defenders in Peru have rallied around left-wing nationalist candidate Ollanta Humala—not because they are overly confident in his candidacy, but because they fear a return to the past.
“From Humala we have doubts, but with Keiko we have proof,” they say, referring to the candidacy of Congresswoman Keiko Fujimori, daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori, who is in jail on charges of corruption and human rights abuse.
Keiko has said she will not free her father if she is elected president, and that she suffered as a young woman watching the collapse of his regime—something she does not want her own two daughters to experience.
While most voters accept that Keiko, 36, is not her father—a fact of which she reminded them daily during the four weeks leading up to the run-off vote—they question why the young Fujimori has included many of her father’s advisors in his campaign, and why she has said he was the best president ever.
With Peru’s presidential runoff only five days away, the last polls that can be legally published before the vote show that the race is neck-and-neck. The Peruvian polling firm Imasen reported on Sunday that Ollanta Humala of Gana Perú holds a slim 1.3 percent lead over his opponent, Keiko Fujimori of the Fuerza 2011 party. Ipsos Apoyo found a similarly tight race with 50.5 percent supporting Fujimori and 49.5 percent prefering Humala. Approximately 20 percent of Peru’s voters are still undecided.
With polls showing no clear frontrunner, the first and only televised debate on Sunday was seen as opportunity for one candidate to take the lead ahead of the June 5 runoff. However, neither presidential hopeful emerged as a clear winner. Rather than focus on wooing undecided voters, Humala and Fujimori exchanged political jabs.
Humala recalled the human rights abuses and corruption that plagued Peru under Keiko Fujimori’s father, former President Alberto Fujimori. Keiko Fujimori responded by asserting her political independence and casting doubt on her rival’s far-left policies—including taxing the rich and spending heavily on social programs—that she claimed would endanger Peru's strong economic growth rate and scare off foreign investors.
Peru’s elite appears as divided as the electorate. Former president Alejandro Toledo is backing Humala, while his ex-prime minister, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski is supporting Fujimori.
Less than 10 days before Peru’s presidential run-off election, Keiko Fujimori of the Fuerza 2011 ticket is pulling ahead of Gana Perú candidate Ollanta Humala, according to the latest figures by polling firm Datum. Fujimori had the support of 52.9 percent of respondents, compared to 47.1 percent for Humala. This latest poll, which surveyed 1,214 people and was conducted on Sunday, indicates an increase in Fujimori’s lead of about one percentage point from the previous poll, conducted earlier this month.
Humala was scheduled to travel to Brazil today to meet with President Dilma Rousseff and her predecessor, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva—after whom Humala has tried to recast his public image. However, Humala decided to cancel the trip at the last minute, according to spokesman Javier Diez Canseco, so that he could focus on consolidating popular support during the final campaign stretch.
Humala is a former political mentee of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and appears to be struggling to convince voters that he has abandoned his radical-left past. Although he has vowed to govern as a moderate and has backed down on earlier proposals to increase taxes and take over private pension funds, the Datum poll showed that fully half of Peru’s voters believe Humala might govern as an authoritarian ruler. Only one-third of voters think he will honor the country’s international agreements, including free trade deals.
Fujimori, daughter of jailed former President Alberto Fujimori, enjoys strong backing by the business community, who believe she will continue the free-market economic reforms begun by her father in the 1990s. Critics feel she is too close to her father politically and over-reliant on his former aides and policy advisors.
From Americas Society/Council of the Americas. AS/COA Online's news brief examines the major—as well as some of the overlooked—events and stories occurring across the Americas. Check back every Wednesday for the weekly roundup.
Giuliani Advises Peru’s Fujimori as She Pulls ahead
Conservative Peruvian presidential candidate Keiko Fujimori contracted former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani this week as an adviser to help design public security programs. The news came as polls indicated that Fujimori has begun to pull ahead of leftwing nationalist Ollanta Humala for the June 5 runoff election. A Datum released Sunday night found Fujimori leading over nationalist Humala by nearly six percentage points, with 46 percent against Humala’s 40.2. Another pollster, Ipsos Apoyo, released a figure the same day that found Fujimori winning by a smaller margin, with 51.1 percent compared to Humala’s 48.9 percent.
Victims Law Reaches Final Debate in Colombian Congress
A law that would provide state compensation to victims of violence in Colombia’s civil conflict reaches its final debate in Congress today. Before passing the law, legislators will debate whether to legally recognize that Colombia faces an internal conflict with enemy combatants or to classify the FARC guerrilla army as a terrorist group for the purposes of the law. Colombian ex-President and FARC nemesis Álvaro Uribe explains to Foreign Policy why he supports categorizing the guerrillas as terrorists rather than combatants. Investigative website La Silla Vacía charts the positions of key Colombian politicians on the issue.
Scandal-tainted Colombian Envoy to Venezuela Resigns
Eight months into his job, Colombia’s Ambassador to Venezuela José Fernando Bautista stepped down Monday after admitting he had ties to a Colombian construction conglomerate involved in bribing politicians for work contracts. He will be replaced by Ricardo Montanegro, who served as the Colombian business attaché in Caracas.
Despite Ollanta Humala having won the first round of voting for the Peru presidency, second-place finisher—and runoff opponent—Keiko Fujimori now leads Humala ahead of the June 5 election according to three polls released over the weekend. One poll by the firm Datum predicts that Fujimori, of the Fuerza 2011 ticket, will win 53.4 percent of votes in the runoff, while her Gana Perú counterpart will register 46.6 percent. Peruvian citizens are mandated by law to vote, and the Datum survey notes that 13.8 percent of respondents said they would spoil their ballots or intentionally leave them blank.
Another poll, by Ipsos Apoyo, reveals a statistical tie between the two candidates: Fujimori has 51.1 percent and Humala 48.9 percent. According to this poll, Fujimori was the more preferred candidate on issues of democratic values, freedom of expression and private investment. To boost her security credentials, Fujimori is currently campaigning with former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani.
The Ipsos Apoyo also shows that Fujimori enjoys a majority support in Lima and areas in northern Peru, while Humala’s electoral base lies in southern, central and eastern areas of the country. The two runoff finalists are scheduled to debate each other in Lima on May 29.
Peruvian presidential candidate Ollanta Humala would win the second round of voting against opponent Keiko Fujimori if the election were held today. According to a poll conducted by CPI on Thursday, Humala received 52.5 percent of the vote while Fujimori earned 47.5 percent.
Polling also shows that Fujimori has wider support in the Peruvian capital while Humala captures most votes in the interior of Peru.
Humala's agenda—constitutional reform, renegotiating energy and mining—is similar to that of 2006 when he lost in the second round to President Alan Garcia. However, his increased appeal is a result of a new strategy that sees the colonel embracing the model of former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rather than that of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez. Meanwhile, Fujimori is also running on a platform of greater social inclusion but without major changes to the status quo.
The winner of the June 5 contest will take office for a five-year term beginning on July 28.
Peru is about to be divided, again. With the vote count nearly complete, it looks like the pre-election polls were spot on: first place is Ollanta Humala and second place is Keiko Fujimori. Exit polls also indicate that their two respective parties, Gana Perú and Fuerza 2011, won the most seats in Congress.
What would an Ollanta Humala presidency look like? Would he live up to his campaign promise to be a more center-left candidate, or would he backtrack on his recent character transformation? The problem is: no one knows. During the campaign, he appealed to the mainstream Peruvian electorate by portraying himself as a political centrist and Catholic conservative, and by shying away from his close ties with Presidents Hugo Chávez and Evo Morales. He has tried to portray himself as more like former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. However, many Peruvians—including several investors—believe this is just a façade. Predictions of an Humala victory have contributed to the biggest jump in the cost of insuring Peruvian sovereign debt in five years and the Peruvian Nuevo Sol has declined by 1.6 percent since March 20. We do know that Humala has said he might try to reform the constitution, redistribute wealth through a “national market economy,” and start a government pension program for the elderly.
And, what would a Fujimori presidency look like? It is possible it would look a lot like her father’s, with the first step being a pardon for Alberto Fujimori who is serving a 25-year sentence for human rights abuses and corruption. Nevertheless, Keiko Fujimori appealed to some voters because of her father’s record on the economy, anti-terrorism and populism—he frequently gave away goods and services to remote regions overlooked by other governments. Her presidency is not expected to be much different and there is no guarantee that she would adhere to democratic principles.
Over the past few months, multiple hopefuls have emerged, surged and then collapsed in the race to become Peru’s next president. Former Lima Mayor Luis Castañeda, the first to declare his candidacy, led early polls, but finished a distant fifth place in Sunday’s vote. Former President Alejandro Toledo, whose support hovered around 30 percent in many polls, was expected to coast into the second-round vote. Instead, he finished in fourth place. Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, a less-than-well-known technocrat, was polling at five percent only a month before the election, but he surged in recent weeks with strong support from businesses and young voters and finished a strong third place on Sunday. Congresswoman Keiko Fujimori—daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori—had difficulties moving beyond her father’s traditional support base (around 20 percent of the electorate), but with the moderate vote split between three candidates this was enough to pass on to the second round. Two-time presidential candidate Ollanta Humala tapped into many Peruvians’ dissatisfaction with the lopsided distribution of wealth that has accompanied the rapid growth of recent years, and surged from 10 percent to 30 percent support in only a few weeks.
Now Humala will face Fujimori in the June 5 runoff.
The Peruvian civil society group Transparencia-Perú conducted an election-day observation and quick count predicting the following final results (with a 1.5 percent margin of error):
Ollanta Humala (Gana Perú) 31.3 percent
Keiko Fujimori (Fuerza 2011) 23.2 percent
Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (Alianza por el Gran Cambio) 18.7 percent
Alejandro Toledo (Perú Posible) 15.9 percent
Luis Castañeda (Alianza Solidaridad Nacional) 10.0 percent
June 1: This AQ-Efecto Naím segment looks at sustainable cities in the hemisphere.