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Uruguay’s Frente Amplio Outperforms Expectations Ahead of Runoff

October 30, 2014

by Adam Wolsky

In a presidential contest that may have seemed like déjà vu, Uruguay’s elections on Sunday produced some unexpected headlines: former President Tabaré Vázquez earned nearly 48 percent of the vote—a full 17 points ahead of challenger Luis Lacalle Pou; Vázquez’ center-left Frente Amplio coalition (Broad Front–FA) has retained its parliamentary majority; and a plebiscite to lower the age of criminal responsibility from 18 to 16— referred to during the campaign as la baja—was convincingly defeated.

Aside from the accurate prediction that no candidate would earn more than 50 percent of the vote—resulting in a November 30 runoff—these were not the results expected by Uruguayan pollsters, who have begun a period of self-criticism after pollster Ignacio Zuasnabar from Equipos Mori admitted that the old polling methods need to be refreshed using Facebook and cell phones. Nearing October 26, pollsters believed Lacalle Pou was closing the gap on Vázquez, and some even said that right-wing Partido Colorado (Red Party–PC) candidate Pedro Bordaberry would achieve about 17 percent of the vote. In the end, Bordaberry did not even achieve 13 percent.

Meanwhile, Vázquez, who has already run for president three times, and Lacalle Pou of the center-right Partido Nacional (National Party–PN), the son of former president Luis Alberto Lacalle, will return to the trenches for the final phase of their campaigns. Third-place candidate Bordaberry, the son of former president Juan María Bordaberry—whose government ushered in Uruguay’s 1973-1985 military dictatorship—has already voiced his support for Lacalle Pou.

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Tags: Uruguay, Tabaré Vásquez, Luis Lacalle Pou

Dilma Redux?

October 29, 2014

by Johanna Mendelson Forman

The re-election of President Dilma Rousseff as president of Brazil was not a foregone conclusion as little as a week ago. While the campaign could not have been dirtier, with charges of corruption, womanizing and wife-beating flying around, Rousseff’s Partido dos Trabalhadores (Workers' Party—PT) now seems set for another four years in office.

The PT is on the verge of having the longest-running rule of one party in Brazil since the end of military rule in 1985.

Watching the Brazilian presidential campaign in Rio in its final days provided a useful window to talk to voters.

If this election reveals anything about the Brazilian electorate, it is that they are not yet ready to give up the socioeconomic gains of the years under the PT’s stewardship of the country.

The 12 years of PT government so far have created expectations for many millions of Brazilians to become part of the middle class. Even though the right-of-center candidate, former Minas Gerais governor Aécio Neves, promised to keep the social programs going, the majority of voters opted for the status quo.

The electorate was closely divided, though. With the final votes counted, Rousseff, with 51.6 percent of the vote to Neves' 48.5 percent, had only a 3 percent—or 3.5 million vote—difference.

That foreshadows a polarization of what some have characterized as two irreconcilable halves—much as is the case now in the United States.

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Tags: Brazil, Dilma Rousseff, Social inclusion

Monday Memo: Brazil Elections – Uruguay Elections – Citgo Petroleum – Protests in Haiti – Chiquita

October 27, 2014

by AQ Online

This week’s likely top stories: Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff is re-elected; Uruguayan elections move to a second round; Venezuela scraps the sale of Citgo Petroleum; Haitians protest a lack of elections; a Brazilian consortium acquires Chiquita.

Dilma Rousseff Re-elected President of Brazil: Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff was narrowly re-elected on Sunday in a runoff election that will extend the ruling Partido dos Trabalhadores (Workers’ Party—PT) government’s mandate until 2019. Rousseff captured 51.6 percent of the vote, defeating challenger Aécio Neves of the Partido da Social Democracia (Brazilian Social Democracy Party—PSDB), who received 48.4 percent after nearly all ballots were counted. Rousseff’s victory marks the fourth straight presidential victory of the PT, although the party has recently come under public scrutiny due to a kickback scandal involving state oil company Petrobras, and has been criticized for an underperforming economy. In her victory speech, Rousseff acknowledged the challenges ahead, saying, “I want to be a much better president than I have been until now.”

Uruguayan Election Goes to Runoff: After Sunday’s election failed to deliver an outright majority to any presidential candidate, Uruguayans will return to the polls on November 30 to make a final decision between former President Tabaré Vásquez of the ruling Frente Amplio (Broad Front—FA) and Luis Lacalle Pou of the Partido Nacional (National Party). Pedro Bordaberry of the right-wing Partido Colorado (Colorado Party) endorsed Lacalle Pou shortly after the results came in, forming a conservative alliance to challenge Vásquez in the next round of voting. Also at stake in the election is the fate of Uruguay’s historic marijuana legislation, passed by outgoing President José “Pepe” Mujica, which legalizes the production, distribution and sale of marijuana to Uruguayan adults. The FA has governed Uruguay since 2005, with Vázquez serving as president from 2005-2010.

Venezuela Fails to Sell Citgo Petroleum: Venezuela will not sell the state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA)’s U.S.-based refining subsidiary Citgo Petroleum Corp, the government announced Sunday. Strapped for cash yet unable to find a buyer for Citgo, PDVSA needed the estimated $8 billion to $10 billion from the sale of Citgo to help offset falling oil prices, scheduled debt payments to China and Russia, and the country’s economic recession. In a memo to its clients this month, Barclays Plc predicted that Venezuela would be forced to adjust its economic policies, and could consider curbing subsidized oil to PetroCaribe members, devaluing the bolivar, and renegotiating loans from China. Another possible reform package could include hiking domestic gasoline prices

Protestors in Port-au-Prince Demand a Vote: Haitian protestors armed with voting cards marched through the downtown slum of Bel Air in Port-au-Prince on Sunday to demand a chance to vote in legislative and local elections overdue since 2011. Although President Michel Martelly called for elections earlier this year, a stalemate over electoral law between the government and six opposition senators has left voters unable to exercise their basic sovereignty. While Prime Minister Laurent Lamothe accuses  opposition politicians of seeking to extend their time in office without election, the opposition candidates say they are defending the Haitian Constitution against an administration seeking to remain in power by decree. One of these candidates, Sen. Moise Jean Charles, led the protesters through the streets of the capital on horseback. As the terms of 10 senators will expire in mid-January, the Haitian government is under pressure to organize a vote on Martelly’s electoral law before Parliament dissolves in early 2015.

Brazil’s Cutrale-Safra Purchases Chiquita Brands: The Brazilian Cutrale-Safra consortium agreed on Monday to acquire U.S. banana behemoth Chiquita Brands International Inc., formerly United Fruit, for about $682 million. The Cutrale Group—owned by “Orange King” Jose Luis Cutrale—and Safra Group—a network of companies controlled by Brazilian banker Joseph Safra—snagged Chiquita for $14.50 per share. The takeover was approved only three days after Chiquita shareholders voted to reject the company’s proposed merger with Irish banana producer Fyffes Plc., which would have created the world’s largest banana seller. Safra, who is seeking to diversify his $16 billion portfolio, and Cutrale, who is looking to expand the family business because of a global decline in orange juice consumption, overcame three previous failed attempts to acquire Chiquita. The transaction is expected to close by early 2015, after regulatory approvals have been made.

Tags: Dilma Rousseff, Citgo Petroleum, Chiquita

Rousseff Wins a Second Term, Promises Dialogue

October 27, 2014

by Flora Charner

Last night, President Dilma Rousseff was re-elected to Brazil’s presidency in one of the most contested elections in the country’s history.

According to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), Rousseff won with 51.57 percent of the vote. Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (Social Democratic Party—PSDB) challenger Aécio Neves lost by less than 3 points, with 48.43 percent.

This was the narrowest margin ever registered during a presidential election since the fall of the country’s dictatorship in 1985. Rousseff swept the northern and northeastern states, home to some of the country’s poorest residents. The opposition won in the south and in São Paulo, where more than 20 percent of the voting population lives.

One of the decisive states in the election was Minas Gerais, where both candidates were born, and where Neves served two terms as governor. Despite leaving that office with a 92 percent approval rating in 2010, he lost the state to Rousseff by nearly five points.

It was also one of the most aggressive and divisive campaigns Brazilians ever witnessed.

In her acceptance speech, President Rousseff said establishing a “dialogue” will be her top priority.

“I’m very hopeful this mobilizing energy will help create fertile ground to build bridges,” Rousseff said as she spoke on stage in Brasília with dozens of supporters, including her predecessor and mentor Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. “I believe it will be possible to build a common ground.”

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Tags: Brazil elections, President Dilma Rousseff, Aécio Neves

In Brazil, Every Vote Counts

October 24, 2014

by Stephen Kurczy

Misael Gomes stood under the hot sun in downtown Curitiba, sweat running down his back as he gathered with hundreds of Partido dos Trabalhadores (Worker’s Party—PT) supporters awaiting President Dilma Rousseff as she made an October 17 campaign stop ahead of this Sunday’s election.

“We’re doing our work,” Gomes said to me, “we’re fighting hard for this." Rousseff is fighting for her political life in Brazil’s closest election in recent history, and an army of supporters like Gomes is determined to see her reelected to another four-year term. He’s the type of relentless politico who sends several emails a day arguing that opposition candidate Aécio Neves—of the center-right Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (Brazilian Social Democracy Party—PSDB)—would be disastrous for the social programs expanded under Rousseff and her predecessor, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

But this scene in Curitiba would never have happened if this were the United States. Curitiba is the capital of a state that voted overwhelmingly for Neves in the first round of the election on October 5. If Brazil operated under the Electoral College system of the U.S., campaigning anywhere in PSDB-controlled Paraná state would be a waste of resources for either presidential candidate because Neves would already be virtually guaranteed all of the state’s electoral votes.

“Your system is a bit outdated, isn’t it?” Gomes said to me after I’d spent several minutes attempting to explain the U.S. Electoral College and why four U.S. presidents have been elected to the White House despite losing the popular vote.

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Tags: President Dilma Rousseff, Aécio Neves, Brazil 2014 elections

Dinamismo en los Partidos Políticos de El Salvador

October 23, 2014

by Julio Rank Wright

Los salvadoreños nos encontramos, de nuevo, a escasos cinco meses de una nueva contienda electoral. Mientras muchos aún no terminan de recuperarse de la resaca de la última elección presidencial, otros esperan con ansias la llegada de los próximos comicios.

Generalmente, en épocas cercanas a elecciones es cuando muchos empezamos a prestarle atención a los partidos políticos. Preguntas y conversaciones sobre el estado actual, la evolución, involución y hasta explosión del sistema de partidos políticos se escuchan con frecuencia. Comentarios sobre “las primarias a medias” o “los dedazos” no dejan de despertar pasiones.

A la luz de los procesos internos que cada uno de los partidos políticos del país (grandes y pequeños así como nuevos y tradicionales) ha estado llevando a cabo, vale la pena enfatizar la importancia de un sistema de partidos políticos modernos y dinámicos para el país. El Instituto Nacional Demócrata para Asuntos Internacionales (NDI por sus siglas en inglés) tiene más de dos décadas trabajando con partidos políticos en más de 50 países del mundo.

Con el correr del tiempo, el NDI ha identificado una serie de mejores prácticas de partidos efectivos. Un partido político efectivo debe considerar tres elementos claves: la democracia interna, la transparencia y el alcance a nuevos sectores.

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Tags: Democracia, El Salvador, Partidos Políticos

The Republican Electoral Paradox

October 21, 2014

by John Parisella

As the U.S. nears its mid-term elections, primetime U.S. media events—the recent debate on the war against ISIS, global terrorism, the international Ebola scare, and the pending approval of the Keystone Pipeline—are making top news fodder in Canada as well. The upcoming U.S. elections on November 4, 2014 are no exception.

With President Obama’s low approval rating, will the Republicans take control of the Senate? If so, Obama enters the real lame duck period of his presidency because speculation about the 2016 race will begin immediately after election night ends.

On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is clearly in the lead for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. Not even Vice President Joe Biden comes anywhere close. Other potential candidates, such as Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, former Virginia Senator James Webb and Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley are marginal, at best. The lack of a real primary contest for the Democrats will make the path to nomination a fait accompli for Ms. Clinton, but it will have the disadvantage of keeping her regularly out of the news cycle.  Republicans, on the other hand, are expected to have a real contest with no front runner emerging until late in the campaign.

The paradox is that the Republicans have consistently won the House of Representatives in every election since 1994 with the exception of 2008, when the Obama victory wave swept both houses of Congress. The Senate, however, has been more contentious. 

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Tags: Mid-term Elections, United States elections 2016

Why There’s No Nate Silver in Brazil

October 21, 2014

by Stephen Kurczy

Even famed statistician Nate Silver couldn’t have forecast the first-round results of Brazil's presidential election, which heads to a final runoff vote this Sunday. And not just because the campaign has unfolded with Dickensian complexity—down to the colorful cast of characters, tragic death, and political rebirth. From a scarcity of polling data to the very way elections are held in Brazil, political forecasters here face unique challenges, the results of which have been on display during this volatile election season.

Much of the unpredictability is a product of Brazil being a young democracy. The country's lack of historical election data makes it especially difficult to divine voters' intentions, according to Clifford Young, President of U.S. Public Affairs and former Managing Director for Brazil at Ipsos, a global market and public opinion research firm. 

“Nate Silver would have had the same troubles here,” Young said in a telephone interview.

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Tags: Brazil elections, Polling, Nate Silver

Righting Guatemala’s Broken Judicial Selection Process

October 16, 2014

by Mirte Postema

This year has been important for Guatemala’s judicial system. A number of judicial posts are due to be filled in 2014, and so far this year, a new electoral tribunal and attorney general have already taken office.

In July, the selection process for Supreme Court and appeals court magistrates began. However, these two selection processes were rife with irregularities and controversy. On October 9, Guatemala’s Constitution Court (CC) issued a provisional ruling suspending the results of the two selection processes, thus taking an important step towards compliance with international standards and national law.

Although Congress generally appoints judges in Guatemala, the selection process for judges and magistrates involves special comisiones de postulación (selection commissions), which provide Congress with a shortlist of possible candidates. The commissions are made up of representatives from various areas of the legal community: law school deans, judges and lawyers.

This mechanism—which is unique to Guatemala—was designed to depoliticize the selection process. However, it is clear that the model is no longer working as intended. The commissions have been influenced by  special interests—including deans from new, privately-owned universities —and there are currently no tools to adequately counteract them. Meanwhile, national and international organizations, such as DPLF, CEJIL and the Open Society Justice Initiative, have reported that Guatemala’s judicial selection process violates national and international norms.

Guatemala’s 2014 judicial selection processes demonstrate that a profound modification of the proceedings is overdue. The more robust selection criteria developed by the CC in judgment 2143-2014—which requires commissions to research the candidates’ qualifications, interview the candidates, and explain their votes—were largely ignored by the commission to select appeals court judges, and only marginally adhered to by the Supreme Court selection commission. The selection processes were also compromised by conflicts of interest, because some commission members were candidates in the other selection process.

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Tags: Guatemala, Judicial Reform

Indigenous Political Participation Key to Morales’ Lead

October 9, 2014

by Ramiro Sebastián Fúnez

Bolivian President Evo Morales is expected to be elected to a third term in office on October 12—and not by a small margin. A September 30 poll conducted by French global market research company Ipsos predicts that the incumbent will receive a comfortable 59 percent of the vote.

Meanwhile, opposition candidates Samuel Doria Medina of the Unidad Demócrata (Democratic Unity—UD), Jorge Quiroga of the Partido Demócrata Cristiano (Democratic Christian Party—PDC), Juan del Granado of the Movimiento Sin Miedo (Movement without Fear—MSM) and Fernando Vargas of the Partido Verde de Bolivia (Bolivian Green Party—PVB) are each expected to receive less than 15 percent of the vote individually.

Among opposition circles, speculation is rife that the increased number of eligible Bolivian voters (totaling 6.5 million) and the alleged pro-Morales bias of the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (Supreme Electoral Tribunal) indicate a fraudulent electoral process. Doria Medina, earning an estimated 13 percent of the vote in the recent Ipsos poll, has also claimed that the ruling Movimiento al Socialismo (Movement for Socialism—MAS) government is manipulating television advertising allocation in favor of the president.

“They have aired up to 60 negative spots on television against us, and when we tried to respond to them with our own spots, the Electoral Tribunal denied us permission,” Doria Medina told Andres Oppenheimer of the Miami Herald in September. “Likewise, we put campaign signs on the streets, and the government ordered police to remove them. The government has a monopoly of public signs,” Medina said.

However, opposition members attempting to make sense of Morales’ expected win should look no further than the president’s overwhelming support from the country’s historically marginalized Aymara and Quechua populations, which form an important percentage of Bolivia’s population. Morales’ presidency has been marked by mass Indigenous political participation in government affairs, an achievement unheard of in previous administrations.

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Tags: Bolivian Elections, Evo Morales, Indigenous Rights

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