Monday Memo: AQ’s Top Expected Stories for the Week of May 7

May 7, 2012

Top stories this week are likely to include: Mexico’s presidential candidates debate; Dilma and the forestry law; Humala and Santos travel to Asia; and Venezuela proposes an alternative to the IACHR. 

Challengers Hammer Peña Nieto in Presidential Debate: The leading presidential candidates in Mexico held their first debate last night, and frontrunner Enrique Peña Nieto of the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) was the biggest target of attacks from  candidates Josefina Vázquez Mota (Partido Acción Nacional) and Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Partido de la Revolución Democrática). Peña Nieto’s challengers painted him as a corrupt politician who oversaw a poor economy in Mexico state. During the debate, Peña Nieto noted that Vázquez Mota and López Obrador “seem to have come to an agreement… they’re coming with knives sharpened.” However, political analyst Jorge Zepeda opined that “Peña Nieto survived…I don’t think the debate will have a big impact.” Adds AQ Senior Editor Jason Marczak: “Without a clear winner in last night's debate, look for the campaign to turn increasingly hostile as candidates seek to make up ground against Peña Nieto.” Now that the candidates have squared off in their first debate—the next one will be held in June—look for how the Mexican electorate responds on the campaign trail. 

Dilma May Partially Veto the Forestry Law: In a political setback to Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, Brazil’s legislature approved a controversial forest code on April 26 at the urging of the powerful farmers’ lobby. The code gives way for further deforestation of the Amazon and provides an amnesty from being fined for illegally clearing trees. Rousseff is now being pressured by environmentalists to veto the law, especially ahead of next month’s Rio+20 global summit on sustainable development. Advisors in Brasilia are now indicating that the president may issue a partial veto to two particularly controversial clauses: one on amnesty from prior deforestation and another on reducing vegetation on the margins of the rivers. Look for news this week.

Humala to Asia: Peruvian President Ollanta Humala will make his first official trip to Asia this week, aiming to sell his country as a trans-Pacific destination for trade and investment. Humala arrives in Japan tomorrow for trade talks with Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and Emperor Akihito, then continues to South Korea where he will sign a declaration of strategic association with Prime Minister Lee Myung-Bak. “Coming on the heels of nationalizations in Argentina and Bolivia, Humala will likely use the trip to exhibit the stability for investments in Peru,” notes AQ’s Jason Marczak.

Santos in Singapore and China: Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos landed in Singapore yesterday for a six-day trip to Asia that will also include a state visit to China. Santos is accompanied in Singapore by a business delegation and his ministers of commerce, mining, transport and agriculture, and foreign affairs. He lands in China tomorrow to build “a much closer framework of cooperation between the two countries,” according to Xinhua and will depart on Saturday.

Venezuela Proposes IACHR Alternative: After suggesting last week that his country should withdraw from the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR), Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and his administration have proposed an alternative human rights body for Latin American states that would exclude the United States. Chávez has accused the IACHR, under the aegis of the Washington-based Organization of American States, of being a tool of the U.S. government. However, the informal proposal of an alternate commission issued over the weekend in Cartagena, Colombia, by Venezuelan Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro should bring cause for concern that Venezuela is flouting its international commitments. The move has been criticized by Venezuelan human rights groups and the United Nations. Look for formalized proposals going forward.

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Monday Memo: AQ’s Top Expected Stories for the Week of April 30

April 30, 2012

Top stories this week are likely to include: Dilma Rousseff’s possible veto of Forestry legislation; The search ends for Cuban actors who defected; the vote on drug victims compensation law in Mexico; construction resumes on Peru’s Conga mine.

Brazil’s Forestry Laws: Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff is facing extreme pressure from environmentalists, who believe that a new forestry bill, which last week passed both legislatures after fierce lobbying by agroindustry, will speed up deforestation of the Amazon.  Current laws establish that 80 percent of private land in the Amazon region is off limits for development. The new law will allow for the development of vast areas that were previously off limits. According to observers, the changes threaten 270,000 square miles (690,000 square kilometers) and will prevent Brazil from reaching its deforestation reduction goals.  “It’s fitting—if a bit ironic—that this is playing out in the country that will soon host the Rio+20 Conference,” says Chris Sabatini, editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.

Cuban Defections: Two young Cuban actors who disappeared last week while making their way to the New York-based Tribeca Film Festival for the U.S. premiere of the film Una Noche have resurfaced and announced their intention to apply for asylum in the United States. The actors, both in their 20s, went missing during a brief stopover in Miami and had not been heard from in nearly a week. “Defections from Cuba are common;” says AQ editor Matthew Aho, “they result from a combination of accommodating U.S. asylum policies for Cubans and the lack of real opportunities for Cuban youth.”

Conga mine construction to resume: The largest-ever mining investment in Peru’s history will be allowed to move forward this year, after months of construction delays caused by local protestors’ fears of environmental damage and water contamination. The Conga protests were the first major crisis of President Ollanta Humala’s administration. His decision to allow the project to proceed will be another major test of his government and could spark a wave of similar protest in the Cajamarca region.  “For many who questioned Humala’s commitment to a market economy and investment, his actions in this case demonstrate that the Peruvian President—at least when it comes to mining—is a pragmatist, says Sabatini.

Drug Crimes Compensation: A bill that would provide victims of drug violence passed Mexico’s Senate last week and is poised to advance through the legislative process this week. The measure, which would provide victims of drug violence with up to $70,000 in financial compensation, along with a variety of specialized social services, is a central demand of a growing piece movement being led by poet Javier Sicilia. The bill’s sponsors, Senators Fernando Baeza and Tomas Torres, are optimistic about its passage, saying it “lays the foundations to reconstruct the social fabric which has been so gravely affected by violence.”

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Monday Memo: AQ’s Top-Five Expected Stories for the Week of April 16

April 16, 2012

Top stories this week are likely to include: the World Bank presidency goes to a vote; Secretary Clinton in Brazil; Repsol proposes talks with CFK; Chávez authorized for 90-day leave; and the possibility of progress in drug-related violence.

World Bank Presidency: With Colombia’s José Antonio Ocampo withdrawing his candidacy over the weekend, the contest for the next president of the World Bank is a two-person race. A vote is scheduled for today to decide between the two remaining candidates:  the United States’ Jim Yong Kim and Nigeria’s Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. Despite Brazil’s call recently for the BRICS nations to rally behind one candidate, pay attention to which candidate the developing economies will cast their vote. AQ Editor-in-Chief Christopher Sabatini says, “The ability of developing countries to really force a change in the international financial institutions depends on their ability to ally. They split over the IMF presidency last year, and despite their narrowing to two candidates for the World Bank, it’s difficult to imagine them rallying over the Nigerian candidate.”

Secretary Clinton in Brazil: After yesterday’s conclusion of the Sixth Summit of the Americas in Colombia, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will be in Brasilia, Brazil, today and tomorrow for meetings on the Global Partnership Dialogue and the Open Government Partnership (OGP). She and Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff will “welcome 42 new countries into the [OGP] as they announce concrete commitments to prevent corruption, promote transparency, and harness new technologies to empower citizens,” according to a State Department press release. AQ Senior Editor Jason Marczak notes that “with last weekend’s summit not signaling any kernel of hemispheric unity, this week’s meetings are an important opportunity for the Americas’ two largest economies to show that one of the most important relationships in the hemisphere continues to strengthen.”

Repsol Proposes Talks with Argentina: Reports surfaced last week that the Argentine government was mulling a takeover of the majority of shares of YPF SA, the country’s largest oil company. Those reports sparked an international backlash especially in Spain, where YPF’s parent company Repsol is based. Spain’s minister of industry warned on Friday that Argentina would become an “international pariah” if it went ahead with the takeover—and Argentina has since delayed the project rather than abandon it. The head of Repsol is currently in Argentina and is urging talks between his company and the Argentine government. Look out for developments this week.

Chávez in Cuba for Extended Stay: Although he planned to attend last weekend’s Summit of the Americas, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez instead departed for further medical treatment in Havana after doctors advised him on Saturday not to travel to Cartagena. On the same day, the Venezuelan legislature legally authorized Chávez to leave the country for up to 90 days. Pay attention to how Venezuelans react to the possibility of a prolonged absence of the president—especially the opposition eager to unseat him.

Progress in Drug-Related Violence?: Last weekend’s Summit “served as a good forum for discussion over drugs—and that was about it,” according to Sabatini. But while no final declaration was made on this longstanding problem, there was one glimmer of hope on Saturday. El Salvador, one of the Northern Triangle countries embattled by the bitter gang violence surrounding narcotics trade, experienced its first homicide-free day since President Mauricio Funes took office in June 2009. Whether this is a one-off success or the beginning of a pattern remains to be seen.

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Racial Inclusion and Dilma Rousseff’s Washington Agenda

April 10, 2012

President Dilma Rousseff arrived in the U.S. on Sunday for an important diplomatic visit. This is the third meeting between the Brazilian head of state and U.S. President Barack Obama, who visited Brazil in March 2011. With the theme "Agenda of the twenty-first century between Brazil and the United States," the short visit was intended to highlight commercial and educational issues, but racial inclusion should not be left out of the discussions.

Despite not being received as part of a state visit—as in the case of the recent visits from the leaders of India and China—the meetings aimed to rekindle relations that are currently unsettled by commercial disputes and other international affairs such as Cuba and Iran. One of the highlights of the visit is also the Science Without Borders program, a Brazilian project that aims to send 100,000 students abroad to study science and technology. Plans are for the United States to be the main recipient.

Although innovative, the Science Without Borders program has been criticized in Brazil for its elitist character. Last week the Brazilian NGO Educafro protested in Brasilia for the program to include a quota for Afro-Brazilian students. As it is, the selection criterion only considers academic achievement and fluency in English, a focus only young wealthy people can afford. Without changes to the selection process, Afro-Brazilians will increasingly be left behind in science, technology, engineering, and math—the future of Brazil.

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Rousseff, in Washington, Pushes for U.S. Support in “Currency War”

April 10, 2012

Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff met with President Obama yesterday on her first official visit to the United States since assuming office in January 2011. At the top of the Brazilian agenda was a push for U.S. collaboration in countering a global trend of countries keeping their currencies artificially undervalued in order to make their export prices more competitive.

According to Rousseff, a multilateral effort is needed to halt competitive exchange rate devaluations, which she contends impair growth in countries like Brazil. Now the world’s sixth-largest economy, Brazil’s trade balance with the United States has gone from a $6.4 billion surplus in 2007 to an $8.2 billion deficit in 2010. This is driven in large part by a strong real, which has boosted Brazil’s demand for imports.

Both presidents praised each other on fostering strong bilateral relations, but it was also acknowledged that there is more to be done. According to Obama, “The good news is that the relationship between Brazil and the United States has never been stronger. But we always have even greater improvements that can be made.” Among other things, the United States is trying to help U.S. businesses profit from major oil discoveries off Brazil’s coast and from growing Brazilian investments in advanced military equipment such as fighter jets.

President Rousseff is in Boston today to speak at Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Monday Memo: AQ’s Top-Five Expected Stories for the Week of April 9

April 9, 2012

Top stories this week are likely to include: Dilma Rousseff in Washington; Sixth Summit of the Americas on Saturday; Chávez possibly seeking treatment in Brazil; Maras and Zetas reportedly joining forces; and Boudou under investigation.

Dilma in Washington: Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff begins a three-day visit to Washington today, where she will meet with her U.S. counterpart Barack Obama. This is Rousseff’s first visit to the U.S. since taking office in January 2011. Aside from meetings at the White House, Rousseff will speak at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce later today, and give a public speech at Harvard University tomorrow. In the Financial Times, Moisés Naim calls for the two countries to agree to a trade deal as a tangible outcome. Adds AQ Editor-in-Chief, Christopher Sabatini, “There will be plenty to discuss, from improving bilateral commerce and investment, Brazil’s recent flurry of legislation favoring local content and business, Iran, and—I hope—the upcoming presidential elections in Venezuela.”

Summit of the Americas on Saturday: Cartagena, Colombia, will host this weekend the Sixth Summit of the Americas, the regional conference of heads of state organized under the aegis of the Organization of American States. This year’s theme is “Connecting the Americas: Partners for Prosperity.” But will the summit yield any significant results? Notes Sabatini: “While this will be a great opportunity to show off how far Colombia has come in the 18 years since the summit process started, there is really very little the summit can accomplish beyond speeches and vague promises.”

Chávez May Seek Treatment in Brazil: Although Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez landed in Havana on Sunday to receive his latest round of radiotherapy, Brazilian media has been reporting that Chávez may seek further treatment at Sírio-Libanês hospital in São Paulo. This is the same hospital where former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva last year successfully recovered from cancer surgery. Specifically, O Globo has reported—citing anonymous sources—that Chávez’ cancer has metastasized and may spread to his liver. Although the Venezuelan embassy in Brasília has denied the reports, pay attention to how this story develops over the coming days.

Maras-Zetas Alliance: Guatemalan authorities this weekend reported that the deadly Mara Salvatrucha gang, which dominates Central America’s Northern Triangle, has formed a pact with the equally dangerous Zetas group in Mexico for control of key drug transit routes from South America to the United States. In an already violence-plagued Central America, the alliance spells bad news for counternarcotics officials and may bolster the positions of Guatemalan President Otto Pérez Molina—a proponent of drug legalization—at this weekend’s Summit of the Americas. “An alliance between two of the region’s most feared criminal networks yet again reinforces the critical need for a real regional approach to reducing insecurity. The drug traffickers don’t respect borders and neither should counternarcotics efforts,” notes AQ Senior Editor Jason Marczak.

Future of Boudou: Argentine Vice President Amado Boudou  is now under investigation by federal authorities for his actions as economy minister—in the two years prior to assuming the vice-presidency—specifically that he helped printing company Ciccone Calcográfica get out of bankruptcy. Boudou has denied the charges and still has the full support of President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and her administration. After a raid of Boudou’s apartment last week, there may be new developments this week on the ongoing investigation.

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Why The Iran-Brazil Friendship Has Gone Cold

April 5, 2012

After just over a century of amicable relations, Brazil has decided to cool its relationship with Iran.

Gone are the days when Brazil's leader, President Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva (2002-2010), worked hard to strengthen Brazil's partnership with Iran, defending Iranian interests, sharing and learning from similar policy experiences over cafezinho.

At a time when Brazil has sought every opportunity to engage the international community and increase its influence as a mediator of conflict and peace, why has Brazil's new president, Dilma Rousseff, refrained from strengthening the government's ties with Iran?

The answer lies in Rousseff's personal experiences and geopolitical ambitions.

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President Rousseff Announces Stimulus for Lagging Brazilian Economy

April 4, 2012

On Tuesday President Dilma Rousseff announced a series of stimulus measures to kick-start the Brazilian economy. After a disappointing 2.7 percent GDP growth in the 2011 fiscal year, President Rousseff is hoping to reach at least 4.5 percent economic growth for the 2012 fiscal year.

The stimulus packet, worth about 60.4 billion reais ($33 billion), will include a mixture of fiscal incentives, including lowering payroll taxes for employers in hard-hit industries and increasing tariffs on products that have been gaining market space. Furthermore, the state-sponsored Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES), backed by a 45-billion reais ($24.5 billion) injection from the Treasury department, will increase its loans to subsidized companies in order to foster local production. According to President Rousseff, Brazil has to make use of its big and growing internal market, which also attracts great amounts of foreign investment.

These measures mark an important shift in strategy in President Rousseff’s administration. She came to power in the beginning of 2011 with an agenda ready for a country whose GDP had grown by 7.5 percent in 2010. The unexpected slowdown of the economy, however, has necessitated the adoption of fiscal measures to stimulate local businesses. Responding to criticism from the Brazilian congress over Rousseff’s management of the economy, former president Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva announced his full support of the Rousseff administration.

Tags: Brazil, Dilma Rousseff, Economy, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

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Monday Memo: AQ’s Top-Five Expected Stories for the Week of April 2

April 2, 2012

Top stories this week are likely to include: Calderón and Harper at the White House; FARC releasing its remaining hostages; the Mexican presidential campaign officially underway; Good Friday declared a holiday in Cuba; and Brazil’s currency hits a six-month low.

Harper and Calderón in Washington: Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, Mexican President Felipe Calderón and U.S. President Barack Obama are meeting today for the North American Leaders’ Summit. According to a White House press release, the meeting will have a “particular focus on economic growth and competitiveness, citizen security, energy, and climate change.” AQ Editor-in-Chief Christopher Sabatini says, “President Obama has met with these two leaders more than any other world leaders; it makes perfect sense given our levels of trade and the importance of both countries to our security, though this fact has escaped attention.”

FARC Releasing Hostages: After announcing in February that it would release the 10 remaining hostages in its custody, the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) will begin doing so today and later this week. The FARC has also announced that it will stop kidnapping civilians for money; asks Sabatini, “Could this be the end of the FARC?”

Campaign Season Underway in Mexico: On Friday the three leading candidates launched their presidential campaigns in a bid to succeed incumbent Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) President Felipe Calderón, who is term-limited from seeking re-election. Expect much attention to be paid to the first full week of official campaigning among the candidates—Enrique Peña Nieto (Partido Revolucionario Institucional, PRI), Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Partido Revolucionario Democrático, PRD), and Josefina Vázquez Mota (PAN). AQ Senior Editor Jason Marczak notes, “Although much of the campaign will focus on security policy, the next three months will also be crucial for further defining visions of other important issues, namely energy reform, competition, education, and fiscal policy. These issues must get their due attention as well.” Mexico votes on July 1.

Good Friday in Cuba: Pope Benedict XVI proffered during his visit to Cuba last week that Good Friday be declared a holiday in the island nation; over the weekend the Cuban government granted the papal request. This is particularly interesting for Cuba, which has a small Catholic population relative to other Latin American nations. Could this mean a growing influence of the Church in Cuba? Sabatini observes, “Religious space—any space—is important in Cuba. I hope, though, that the Pope’s trip helped produce more than this.”

Brazilian Currency Hits Six-Month Low: Bloomberg has reported that the value of the Brazilian real dropped to its lowest level since September 2011. How will President Dilma Rousseff respond? Despite much global fears about slowing growth in China, Rousseff expressed frustration with what she termed a “monetary tsunami” on the part of developed economies including the United States. Given that President Rousseff will hold a bilateral meeting with President Obama next week, pay attention to how currency discussion unfolds in the coming days.

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Brazil's European Dream

March 21, 2012

The news that Brazil has overtaken Britain to become the world's sixth largest economic power is being touted as a sign that that the longtime "country of the future" has finally arrived. While the celebrations have been somewhat muted by concerns over slowing GDP growth and the country's still-heavy dependence on high energy and food prices, Brazil is heading into the coming global showcases of both the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Summer Olympics with more than its usual swagger.

But this emerging economic prominence is raising the question of just what kind of actor Brazil will be on the world stage. In the past 20 years, Brazil has become well known for turning crisis situations into geopolitical opportunities, becoming a leading voice in international forums devoted to AIDS, poverty, and even the environment. And now, it is doing it again with a challenge that Brazilians understand all too well: a debt crisis.

Only this time, it's Europe in need of a helping hand, not the former Portuguese colony in Latin America. At an EU-Brazil summit held in Brussels last October, President Dilma Rousseff told European leaders, who had asked for assistance: "You can rely and count on us." As an initial strategy, Rousseff and her finance minister, Guido Mantega, considered using their foreign exchange reserves—estimated at $352 billion—to purchase debt through treasury bonds. However, after consulting with her BRIC colleagues at a meeting in Washington last November, Brazil decided that buying EU bonds would be too financially risky, and proposed instead to indirectly assist Europe by donating an estimated $10 billion to the International Monetary Fund.

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Top-10 Storylines to Watch in Latin America

February 1, 2012

This year is already proving that it will be an exciting one for news. Take the U.S. elections, for starters.  The presidential election, as it's been said by at least one GOP nominee, represents a battle for nothing less than America’s soul.

As for Latin America, what should we expect to make headlines? 

Before ticking off possible headlines, it’s important to note the substantial—and frustrating—distinction between what should be covered and what will likely be covered. There are so many issues that never make it to (online) print or broadcast, given the tough competition for airtime and eyeballs.

Here are my top-10 most anticipated stories:

10) Health of Hugo Chávez: There will be many reports well-timed with Venezuela’s election cycle—Venezuelans go to the polls in October—that cite “well-placed, unnamed” sources claiming President Hugo Chávez is healthier than ever after his surgery last summer in Cuba to remove a cancerous abscess. These reports will appear within days of other stories that cite other unnamed sources professing to know the awful truth of just how horribly sick Chávez is and how he is trying to hide his fatal illness. Both stories will include hypotheticals (and wishful thinking) on the future direction of chavismo and bolivarianismo when Chávez ultimately leaves power, one way or another.

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Oil and Education in Brazil

November 9, 2011

The author also wrote “Dilma’s Education Dilemma” in the Fall 2011 issue of AQ.

When Dilma Rousseff assumed the Brazilian presidency in January 2011, she inherited perhaps Brazil’s most challenging socioeconomic issue to date: improving its education system. In recent years, Brazil has registered low rankings in international standardized assessments of topics like writing, reading comprehension and math. When coupled with other longstanding issues like inadequate federal funding as well as insufficient human and infrastructural resources, Brazil’s system is simply not able to keep up with the economy’s growing demands—especially in the high-tech sector.

Nevertheless, my article in the Fall 2011 issue of Americas Quarterly explains the delicacy of improving system: while increasing federal spending for education, Dilma must find ways to prune the budget, reduce fiscal deficits and keep foreign investors happy. By following in the footsteps of her predecessor, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula), Dilma will turn to state-owned resources like oil to fund education policies—and maintain or increase the level of foreign investment.

Federal efforts to address the decline in educational performance began under Lula. While education reform was also important under the Cardoso administration (1994-2002), the Lula administration sought to expand and use its oil resources in order to fund education policy rather Cardoso’s approach which had been to pursue privatization and decentralization. In response to the discovery of new Pré-Sal (pre-salt) oil reserves off of the coast of Rio de Janeiro in 2007, before two years had passed Lula created a new federal agency for the national reserves and a “social fund” within the agency. This social fund uses approximately half of Pré-Sal’s earnings to fund education policy, signaling a clear break from Cardoso’s anti-statist approach to education policy—that is, to strategically expand and use state-owned resources in order to enhance the quality of education.

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Rousseff in Brussels for EU-Brazil Summit

October 3, 2011

Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff kicks off a week-long European tour in Brussels today and tomorrow, where she will address the Fifth EU-Brazil Summit. Key items on the agenda are the Euro debt crisis and the EU-Mercosur free-trade agreement (FTA).

Specifically, Rousseff is expected to announce that Brazil will not be contributing to the European Financial Stability Facility, as was once discussed among the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) bloc of advanced emerging economies. Also, as she did in her opening address to the United Nations last month, Rousseff will make the case for greater inclusion among developing nations in global growth schemes, and her opposition to economic policies among groups of developed countries—like the EU—that she considers protectionist.

Rousseff also seeks to advance dialogue on the EU-Mercosur FTA, where negotiations had been stalled for years but have progressed quickly since being re-launched in 2010. However, key sticking points remain, including recent measures by Brazil to raise import tariffs on cars and European concerns of losing market share in its agricultural industry—given Brazil’s strong farming sector. A deal is anticipated to be signed in 2012.

Rousseff will also discuss Brazil’s preparations for the 2014 World Cup with FIFA President Sepp Blatter while in Brussels. She will then continue to Bulgaria to visit her father’s homeland, and then conclude her visit in Turkey, a key ally in the Muslim world.

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Brazil Makes the Case for UN Reform

September 23, 2011

As general debate of the United Nations General Assembly’s (UNGA) 66th Session got underway this week, the issue of UN structural reform was again brought into focus—with Brazil leading the charge. A thriving democracy and one of the largest emerging economies in the world, Brazil has powerful ammunition in making its demand—especially paired with the collective declining influence of deficit-ridden, developed nations.

The desired trophy for Brazil comes in the form of a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). This elite organ has retained the same numerical composition—15 seats: 5 with permanent tenures (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and 10 with temporary, two-year terms—since its formation in 1946.

Critics of the status quo argue that this small size does not accurately reflect the global developments of the last 55 years. Brazil, as it vocally carries the banner of emerging nations that feel underrepresented in the UN, has chosen to act on reform. The most notable way of doing so has been through the Group of 4 (G4), an alliance formed in 2004 composed of Brazil, Germany, India, and Japan. Each of the G4 nations mutually supports the other members’ bids.

The G4 seeks to expand the size of the UNSC by two-thirds, from 15 members to 25, through the addition of 6 permanent and 4 non-permanent seats. The permanent seats would be comprised of the G4 plus two nations from Africa. However, discord within the African Union has stifled compromise on this issue; Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa are all vying for the two proposed seats and cannot arrive at an agreement.

The G4 is also facing competition from a larger but less influential faction of UN members: Uniting for Consensus (UfC). Members of the UfC, some 40 in number, also favor expanding the UNSC to 25 seats—but by adding 10 temporary seats and keeping the same 5 permanent, veto-carrying members. This makes sense, considering that many of the UfC’s core members are regional rivals of the G4—including Argentina, Mexico, Pakistan, Turkey, Italy, and South Korea—who have a vested interest in thwarting any sort of growing regional influence among the individual G4 members.

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Brazil Approves Creation of Truth Commission

September 22, 2011

Brazil’s House of Representatives approved on Wednesday the creation of a Truth Commission to investigate the human rights violations during the country’s military dictatorship (1964-1985). The bill to create the commission was first introduced during the presidency of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. President Dilma Rousseff—an ex-guerilla who was tortured and imprisoned during the 21-year dictatorship—is now urging the Senate to also approve the bill.

The Truth Commission will be comprised of seven members appointed by President Rousseff to examine instances of forced disappearance and other human rights abuses between 1946 and 1988. Regardless of the Commission’s conclusions, however, military personnel and guerillas found guilty of human rights abuses cannot be tried due to the Amnesty Law passed by the military junta itself in 1979. The Inter-American Court of Human Rights declared the 1979 Amnesty Law judicially null and void in 2010, but the Brazilian Supreme Court confirmed its legality the same year.

According to the Brazilian government, 400 people were killed or disappeared during the dictatorship, compared to over 30,000 in Argentina and 3,200 in Chile.

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General Debate of 66th UN General Assembly Opens Today

September 21, 2011

The sixty-sixth session of the United Nations General Assembly’s (UNGA) general debate began this morning in New York. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon opened the debate session followed by Nassir Abdulaziz Al-Nasser, president of the 66th UNGA and Qatar’s permanent representative to the UN.

This year, the first head of state to speak was Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, followed by U.S. President Barack Obama. President Rousseff’s prominent speaking slot at the UNGA is not only significant for Brazil, but also for women: Rousseff was the first female president in the UN’s 66-year history to open the General Assembly—a fact she highlighted at the opening of her remarks.

Rouseff began her visit to New York at a special meeting on Monday regarding non-communicable diseases, which was chaired by the former president of Chile—and current executive director of UN Women—Michelle Bachelet. Rousseff also co-chaired a meeting yesterday with Obama on open government partnership.

Additional Latin American heads of state that will deliver their opening speeches today to the morning session of the UNGA include: Mexican President Felipe Calderón; Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner; and Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos. In today’s afternoon session, Honduran President Porfirio Lobo, Paraguayan President Fernando Lugo, Guatemalan President Álvaro Colom, and Bolivian President Evo Morales will deliver their remarks.

Access a webcast and agenda of the 66th UNGA General Debate.

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Canadian Prime Minister Kicks Off Latin America Tour

August 8, 2011

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper today begins a weeklong tour through South and Central America with a focus on boosting trade ties. He will visit four countries: Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, and Honduras.

Harper’s arrival in Brazil last night marks his first official visit to the country in more than five years as prime minister. His bilateral meeting with President Dilma Rousseff today and speech to the São Paulo business, political and academic communities tomorrow underscore his goal to aggressively improve Canadian-Brazilian commercial relations. The rise of Brazil is a focus of the Spring 2011 issue of Americas Quarterly and of the AS/COA’s Latin American Cities Conference in São Paulo tomorrow.

Canadian-Brazilian ties have become rocky in past years, especially amid disputes over government subsidies for Brazil’s Embraer aerospace conglomerate and Canada’s Bombardier, Inc. aircraft manufacturer. Brazil is Canada’s 10th-largest export destination and Jayson Myers, president of the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters, said that “of any major emerging economies, Brazil presents Canada with the most opportunity for export.”

Harper will continue Wednesday to Bogotá to meet with President Juan Manuel Santos. The two countries enjoy close ties and the Canada-Colombia free-trade agreement (FTA) enters into force next week. President Santos—in an exclusive interview with AQ on Friday—emphasized the importance of a similar FTA with the United States. Harper finishes his trip in Central America, visiting Costa Rica and Honduras on Thursday and Friday. The Prime Minister’s Office in Ottawa notes that Harper will be the first foreign leader to visit Honduras after its readmission into the Organization of American States in June.

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Celso Amorim Takes Over as Brazil’s Minister of Defense

August 5, 2011

Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff on Thursday accepted the resignation of Defense Minister Nelson Jobim, following a series of derogatory statements made to the press in recent weeks. Shortly thereafter Former Minister of Foreign Relations (1993–1995, 2003–2011) and Americas Quarterly contributor Celso Amorim was selected as Jobim’s replacement and he officially took office yesterday. In the Spring 2011 issue of AQ, Minister Amorim reflects on Brazil’s global rise in the first article written after leaving his post as foreign minister.

The controversy surrounding Jobim had been growing for several weeks. He was widely reported to have recently referred to his colleagues in the Rousseff administration as “idiots” and news surfaced in July that Jobim had claimed publicly that he voted for President Rousseff’s rival, José Serra, in the October 2010 elections. In his most recent comments Jobim was quoted as saying that Minister of Institutional Relations Ideli Salvatti “lacked power,” and that cabinet chief Gleisi Hoffmann "doesn't even know" Brasilia. Jobim issued a statement yesterday denying the quotes.

Jobim is the third minister to resign since Rousseff took office in January. In June, cabinet chief Antonio Palocci resigned over corruption charges and Transportation Minister Alfredo Nascimento quit in July over alleged irregularities in the awarding of contracts within the ministry.

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Brazil Announces Major Investments in Agriculture

July 13, 2011

Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff yesterday announced the creation of a $10 billion fund to help small-scale agricultural producers maximize output and revenues during the 2011–2012 growing season. The fund, which was a major promise when Rousseff was campaigning for office, is targeted at rural family farms and is designed to curb poverty and reduce urban migration.

Brazil is currently the world’s largest producer of coffee, oranges and sugar and is one of few countries whose agricultural exports continue to grow rapidly. In addition to the small-farmer fund, Ms. Rousseff has also announced nearly $64 billion in government spending to support commercial farming nationwide. Family farms produce approximately 70 percent of Brazil’s total domestic food consumption and nearly 70 percent of rural Brazilians work in some capacity in the agricultural sector.

The announcement of the fund is consistent with decades of Brazilian government policy which, since the mid-1970s, has played an active role in supporting agricultural development. 

For more on Brazil’s agricultural boom, check out the forthcoming AQ—coming out August 10, 2011—which includes a policy update on the topic.

Tags: Agriculture, Dilma Rousseff

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Obama's Expected Agenda in Latin America

March 9, 2011

Assuming the U.S. government will be operational past the March 18 funding deadline, President Obama will make his first trip to Central and South America from March 19-23. Obama had previously visited Mexico before heading to the Caribbean in April 2009, where he represented the United States at the Summit of the Americas held in Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago.

President Obama will begin his Latin America tour in Brazil, where he will visit Brasília on March 19 and hold bilateral talks with his counterpart, President Dilma Rousseff, who was inaugurated on January 1. The central discussion points are expected to be infrastructure financing and energy cooperation, with energy an especially critical area for sustaining Brazil’s economic boom and future development. Obama will continue to Rio de Janeiro the following day, where he is expected to hold a CEO roundtable and visit select sites with his family.

Obama will arrive in Santiago, Chile on the afternoon of March 21 and be greeted by Chilean President Sebastián Piñera. The two leaders will have a working meeting and sign a joint declaration, followed later that evening by a state dinner at the Palacio de la Moneda. Piñera and Obama will discuss innovation and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations, the latest round of which concluded last month in Chile. President Piñera has expressed a desire to have the negotiating countries (Australia, Malaysia, Peru, United States, and Vietnam) join the existing TPP signatories (Brunei, Chile, New Zealand, and Singapore) before the next Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Honolulu, Hawaii, in November 2011.

On the morning of March 22, President Obama will deliver a speech to all Latin Americans from Santiago. The specific location is still being finalized; the Natural History Museum is a likely venue with the National History Museum and the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) headquarters as alternative choices.

After his speech, Obama will fly to El Salvador for his final stop. He will be the fourth U.S. president to visit the Central American country while holding office, after Lyndon Johnson, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. Obama will meet with his El Salvadoran counterpart, Mauricio Funes, and discuss a range of bilateral issues including U.S. immigration policy and the recently-announced $200 million pledge from the State Department to renew Central America Regional Security Initiative (CARSI) funding. The two heads of state will also discuss the success of CAFTA-DR. El Salvador was the first Central American signatory. The United States and El Salvador celebrated five years of free trade relations on March 1, 2011.

Follow AQ Online for daily developments leading up to President Obama’s Latin America trip.

Tags: Barack Obama, Brazil, CAFTA-DR, Chile, Crime and Security, Dilma Rousseff, Drug Trafficking, El Salvador, energy, Immigration, Mauricio Funes, Sebastian Piñera, Trans-Pacific Partnership

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Rousseff Wins Key Legislative Victory

February 17, 2011

In a series of votes late Wednesday, Brazil’s lower house of Congress approved a 6.8 percent increase in the minimum wage to 545 reais a month ($326.50), from 510 reais. Labor unions and some politicians had sought to increase the wage to as high as 600 reais. The bill will now go to the Senate, where it is expected to be approved next week.

The approval is considered an important victory for Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, who took office on January 1. Although she was elected by a landslide last October and her governing coalition holds a majority in Congress, that coalition is itself made up of politically disparate groups, including everything from radical leftists and union leaders to socially conservative Christians.

Wednesday’s approval by a strong majority in the lower house shows Rousseff was able to rally her coalition even on politically sensitive issues for her labor constituency. Nonetheless, she risks losing some of her popularity by pushing austerity measures, including planned cuts in federal spending. Last week Rousseff’s government announced a goal of reducing the federal budget for 2011 by 50 billion reais ($30 billion), as she seeks to curb inflation and hold down interest rates. Inflation reached a six-year high of 6 percent in 2010.

Limiting increases to the minimum wage is important because the wage is used to calculate a range of government salaries and benefits, including federally-funded pension funds. Each real added to the minimum wage amounts to a 300 million reais ($180 million) annual increase in federal spending. 

Under Rousseff’s predecessor Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a former union leader, the minimum wage increased nearly 60 percent between 2002 and 2010, which helped millions move out of poverty and earned him enormous popularity. Current union leaders critical of Rousseff’s proposal say the limited increase in minimum wage and other measures of fiscal austerity will hurt the poor and working class the most.

A 2006 agreement between Lula and labor unions, which Rousseff has pledged to extend, determined that the minimum wage increase would be calculated by adding the previous year’s rate of inflation to the rise in GDP of two years ago. The Brazilian economy stagnated in 2009, meaning the government only had to increase the wage in line with inflation this year. It will face a more difficult decision next year, when the wage rise will have to reflect Brazil’s 2010 economic growth rate of 7.5 percent.

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Anger Spreads, Death Toll Rises in Brazil

January 14, 2011

At least 511 people have been reported killed since Wednesday by mudslides and flooding in Brazil’s deadliest natural disaster in recent memory. Heavy precipitation over the past few days is now predicted to continue in the coming weeks, threatening further damage and hindering rescue efforts in the states of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo.

The cities of Petropolis, Teresopolis and Nova Friburgo—all located in a mountainous region about 40 miles north of Rio de Janeiro—were the hardest hit as rain swelled rivers and swept away houses. With the death toll rising, authorities and experts have already begun assigning blame for what are perceived as inadequate rescue efforts and insufficient preparation for floods, which have become increasingly common in Brazil.

“There is carelessness at every level of government,” says Gil Castello Branco, secretary general of Contas Abertas, a group that monitors government spending. Although annual flooding is common in southeastern Brazil, the federal budget for disaster prevention and preparation measures dropped 18 percent in 2010, says Mr. Castello Branco.

Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff and Rio de Janeiro Governor Sergio Cabral, however, cite poor oversight by municipal authorities who allow people to build houses on hillsides vulnerable to landslides. Mr. Cabral said 18,000 people lived in high risk areas in the city of Rio de Janeiro alone. Ms. Rousseff concurred, saying “mountains untouched by men dissolved. But we also saw areas in which illegal occupation caused damage to the health and lives of people…When there aren't housing policies, where are people who earn no more than twice the minimum wage going to live?"

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A fotografia do poder no Brasil

January 13, 2011

(An English version of this post is forthcoming.)

A edição de 13 dezembro de 2010 da Revista Época trouxe como manchete uma análise sobre os 100 mais influentes brasileiros do ano. Com cinco opções de capa, a revista dá ao leitor a opção de comprar a versão com a presidente Dilma Rousseff; a do cineasta José Padilha, diretor dos filmes Tropa de Elite 1 e 2; com o empresário Eike Batista, considerado a 8ª pessoa mais rica do mundo e finalmente a capa com o jogador santista Neymar Júnior. Mas, o que de fato chama a atenção não é o recurso publicitário acima mencionado, e sim o fato de que praticamente não há negros nessa edição especial.

Com exceção da ex-ministra Marina Silva, fenômeno das últimas eleições presidenciais, e do jogador Neymar, que ocupa a tradicional parcela de negros no campo das celebridades futebolística, todos os outros 98 escolhidos pela equipe da revista são brancos. Como disse certa vez, em entrevista, o ator negro Milton Gonçalves, “nós não estamos na fotografia do poder”.

Pela lógica da revista , a  população negra brasileira deve, portanto, contentar-se em ler histórias de sucesso de seus patrícios não-negros e ícones do Brasil que “deu certo”, como a de Eduardo Saverin, bilionário, co-fundador  do Facebook, de apenas 28 anos; David Neeleman, que colocou a companhia Azul em terceiro lugar no mercado de aviação brasileiro; de Alexandre Behring, que comprou ações da empresa americana Burger King - reforçando a nova imagem do capitalismo brasileiro no mercado Global - além de tantos outros “euro-ascendentes” que contribuíram para o desenvolvimento do Brasil em 2010. Até na música, tradicional reduto negro na mídia, sobrou para os cantores negros Margareth Menezes e Carlinhos Brown apenas fazerem comentários elogiosos sobre Ivete Sangalo e a roqueira Pitty, respectivamente.
 
Como se vê, se tomarmos apenas essa reportagem como referencial, conclui-se que o Brasil termina a última década de século XX como se estivesse ainda no século XIX: sem negros nos espaços de poder, apesar da retórica conservadora de que somos uma democracia racial.

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Rousseff Holds First Presidential Coordination Meeting

January 3, 2011

Carrying on a tradition begun under former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, President Dilma Rousseff will bring together her principal ministers today for a coordination meeting to define the first steps to be taken by her government. As under Lula, these meetings will be held at the beginning of each week but do not replace full cabinet meetings.

The names of those participating in today's meeting have yet to be officially announced, but if the same posts are represented as during the Lula government, attendees should at least include: Secretary General of the Presidency Gilberto Carvalho, Secretary of Institutional Relations Luiz Sérgio, Chief Minister of the Institutional Security Cabinet José Elito Siqueira, Vice President Michel Temer, and Antonio Palocci, the head of the Civil House.

Before this afternoon’s larger meeting, Dilma is speaking individually with Antonio Palocci, Finance Minister Guido Mantega, Senate President José Sarney, Chamber of Deputies President Marco Maia, and President of the Federal Supreme Court Cezar Peluso

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Rousseff Wins in Brazil

November 1, 2010

Brazilian Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) presidential candidate Dilma Rousseff handily beat Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB) candidate José Serra on Sunday in the second-round of voting to become Brazil’s first female president-elect. The final tally gave her 56.05 percent support (55.7 million votes) to 43.95 percent (43.7 million votes) for Mr. Serra. The outcome was no surprise to most observers, as polls had shown Ms. Rousseff with a substantial lead over her rival in the weeks leading up to the election.

President-elect Rousseff spoke after news of her victory in equally compelling language about her goals for handling poverty and the Brazilian economy saying, “We can not rest as long as Brazilians are hungry, while there are families living on the streets, while poor children are abandoned to their fate." She then also stated that "it is necessary, multilaterally, to establish clearer rules for the restoration of capital markets, limiting excessive speculation and leveraging, which increase the volatility of capital markets and currencies."

One day after her electoral victory, Ms. Rousseff maintained a busy schedule at her home in Brasilia. According to local media sources, she was visited by political allies including PT President José Eduardo Dutra, former Finance Minister Antonio Palocci, and special presidential adviser for international affairs, Marco Aurélio Garcia—all of whom have been tapped to assist in preparations for the transition.

Marco Aurélio Garcia, President Lula’s special advisor for international affairs, announced that Rousseff will accompany the president to Mozambique and then on to the G-20 Summit in Seoul, South Korea, on November 11-12.

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Attention in Brazil Elections Shifts to Abortion

October 15, 2010

Reports from Brazil this week indicate that the presidential candidates’ positions on abortion are becoming a significant factor in the country’s October 31 second-round contest between Worker’s Party candidate Dilma Rousseff and her Social Democracy Party opponent José Serra. Abortion has not historically played a prominent role in national elections in Brazil despite having the world’s largest Catholic population and a growing number of evangelical Christians.

The rise to prominence of the abortion issue is likely tied to the candidates’ efforts to woo supporters of Green Party candidate and evangelical Marina Silva, who dropped out of the race after winning an unexpectedly high 19 percent of the national vote. Analysts are now suggesting that the Workers’ Party’s traditional support for abortion and gay marriage may have cost Dilma Rousseff in the first round of voting and could play a defining role in the increasingly tight race's outcome. 

In a televised debate last Sunday, Rousseff and Serra publicly clashed on the abortion issue. Serra accused Rousseff of changing her previous stance, while Rousseff responded that Serra “has a thousand faces” and accused him of slander.

Abortion is illegal in Brazil except in cases of rape or if the mother’s life is at risk. Estimates vary, but the Brazilian Ministry of Health claims one million illegal abortions are performed per year and are the fourth largest cause of maternal mortality.

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Market Reacts to Brazil’s Presidential Election

October 4, 2010

Although stocks are not likely to be affected by yesterday’s election, the Brazilian real is likely to continue appreciating ahead of what will now be a second round of voting.

Catching some observers by surprise, presidential candidate Dilma Rousseff, the former chief of staff to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, received 46.9 percent of total votes cast in national elections on Sunday—just shy of the 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff election against former São Paulo Governor José Serra. Mr. Serra won 32.6 percent of the votes, followed by Green Party candidate Marina Silva, who captured 19.3 percent.

Going into the election, the Brazilian real, traded at about 1.68 per dollar, its highest level since the September 2008 financial crisis in the United States. This is a clear change from most past elections that have been preceded by market jitters.

With the presidential decision now on hold until a second round on October 31, the government is unlikely to make any moves that could affect the exchange rate. "In the near term, the Brazilian real is likely to continue to strengthen as the government will put off any announcements of policies to help weaken the currency," said Doug Smith of Standard Chartered Bank.

Stay tuned for more election coverage from AQ Blogger, Paulo Rogerio.

(Homepage photo by Roberto Stuckert Filho.)

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Rousseff’s Advantage Narrows Ahead of Sunday Elections

September 28, 2010

A survey released today by Brazilian polling agency Datafolha shows that voter support for ruling party presidential candidate Dilma Rousseff has fallen to a one-month low of 46 percent, down from 49 percent one week ago and 51 percent the week before. Results from the poll, which surveyed 3,180 people and have a 2 percent margin of error, make it more likely that a runoff will take place four weeks after the first round of voting on October 3. A candidate needs at least 50 percent of the valid vote to win outright.

Analysts suggest corruption allegations against the government are turning well-informed middle-class voters away from President Lula’s hand-picked successor. Last week, Erenice Guerra—who replaced Rousseff as Lula’s chief of staff—resigned over allegations that she sought kickbacks for helping businesses secure contracts and state loans for public work projects. Previously, members of Lula’s Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) were accused of illegally releasing the tax records of opposition candidate José Serra’s daughter.

Serra, of the centrist Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB), has tried to use the recent scandals to his advantage, but data from this most recent poll show that his support among voters has remained steady at 28 percent. Rather, voter support for Partido Verde candidate Marina Silva increased 2 percentage points to 16 percent.

Although the recent scandals and slip in Rousseff’s popularity may affect her ability to win in a first round, they are unlikely to affect the final outcome of the election. Data from the new Datafolha poll show Rousseff beating Serra in a second round, 52 to 39 percent.

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Rousseff Widens Lead in Brazil Election

August 26, 2010

The latest polls out of Brazil show presidential candidate Dilma Rousseff winning the support of 49 percent of voters polled, with a 20 percentage-point lead over her nearest challenger, former São Paulo governor José Serra, who trails behind with 29 percent. Green Party candidate Marina Silva lagged at 9 percent. A candidate in Brazil needs at least 50 percent to avoid a runoff and these newest results make a first-round win in the October 3 election increasingly likely.

Ms. Rousseff received a major bump in name recognition and popularity after last week’s launch of her national television campaign, which included prime-time ad spots clearly linking her to ever-popular President Luis Inácio Lula da Silva.

An outright win for Rousseff may give the one-time energy minister a mandate for her legislative agenda, which some believe will stay close to Lula’s playbook of a strong state combined with market-friendly practices. Some economic analysts however, say Rousseff could be considering a much bolder policy agenda, including budget cuts to allow for lower interest rates, limits to the growth of public spending and reforms to the tax code.

The Datafolha poll was based on a nationwide sample of 10,948 people and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

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Dilma Rousseff Ahead with Lula’s Support

June 24, 2010

In a spell of good news for the handpicked candidate of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, an Ibope poll released yesterday shows Dilma Rousseff leading opposition candidate José Serra, 40 percent to 35 percent.

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Pré-canditados à presidência disputam votos em redes sociais no Brasil

April 29, 2010

As próximas eleições presidenciais brasileiras não só marcarão o fim da chamada "era Lula"—quando o atual presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finaliza o seu segundo mandato, mas também será a primeira vez que o uso das redes sociais como Twitter, Orkut, Facebook e Ning será autorizado pelo Tribunal Superior Eleitoral nas campanhas políticas. Por esses e outros motivos, esse pleito eleitoral pretende entrar para história como um dos mais complexos e disputados.

Até 2009, a legislação brasileira proibia campanhas eleitorais pela internet, com exceção dos sites oficiais destinados a este fim, que tinha o final ".can". Nas últimas eleições, por exemplo, a rede social Orkut foi obrigada a deletar arbitrariamente perfis de jovens que adicionavam números dos candidatos em suas fotos de apresentação ou faziam apologias político-partidárias nos fóruns. Uma ação quase inquisitória em um ambiente tradicionalmente livre da Internet, além de ferir a liberdade de expressão.

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Brazil Launches Massive Infrastructure Investment Initiative

March 29, 2010

Brazilian President Lula da Silva today announced a $550 billion long-term infrastructure investment plan called the PAC II, which is the second installment of the government’s accelerated growth program. When combined with the $504 billion in budget allocations outlined by PAC I in 2007, Brazil’s targeted infrastructural investments should eventually total more than $1 trillion over a 10-year period.

The timing of today’s announcement was likely intended to coincide with the resignation of Dilma Rousseff—chief minister to President Lula da Silva and his chosen successor to the presidency—so that she can begin preparations to kick off her presidential campaign in July. Ms. Rousseff is expected to tout the PAC II investments as evidence that Lula's center-left government is rapidly improving Brazil’s dilapidated infrastructure and promoting robust economic growth.

The most probable centrist opposition candidate in Brazil’s October presidential elections, former health minister José Serra, who has been leading in local opinion polls, dismisses the program as government propaganda and points to widespread delays during the first phase of the program as evidence of its shortcomings.

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