The latest polls out of Mexico show Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD) candidate and 2006 runner-up Andrés Manuel López Obrador trailing only four points behind longtime frontrunner and Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) candidate Enrique Peña Nieto. Yesterday's poll, published by La Reforma newspaper, shows López Obrador capturing 34 percent of the vote versus Peña Nieto’s 38 percent. At a press conference after hearing the news, López Obrador stated that he “is very happy with the result and his overall strategy is working well.”

According to analysts, López Obrador’s recent surge in popularity is tied to recent student protests against Peña Nieto and his perceived dependence on corporate campaign supporters, including ties to telecommunications giant Televisa. López Obrador’s campaign has sought to exploit this perception by taking a stance against corporate monopolies in services.

Although there has been a recent slump in Peña Nieto’s popularity, most observers still believe that he will win on July 1 as most polls still show the PRI candidate with a comfortable lead over other hopefuls.

Mexico Hosts First 2012 Presidential Debate

On Sunday night, the four top Mexican presidential candidates faced one another in the country’s first of two planned presidential debates. The debate was seen as an opportunity for candidates to gain an edge as the Institutional Revolutionary Party’s (PRI) Enrique Peña Nieto maintains a lead of over 20 percent. Though the National Action Party’s Josefina Vázquez Mota and the Party of the Democratic Revolution’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador attacked Peña Nieto’s record, polls after the debate show no diminished support for the PRI candidate. The Wall Street Journal noted that the debate revealed areas of agreement between Peña Nieto and Vázquez Mota, such as allowing foreign investment in Mexico’s state oil company and fighting crime. The paper said this “suggests that Mexico could begin to see consensus on key issues like energy, where attempts at reform have been blocked by a divided Congress for years.” 

Social Media a Double-Edged Sword in Mexico's Election

Mexico’s 2012 election marks the first time many of Mexico’s tech-savvy youth will vote, giving social media—and especially Twitter—a tremendous influence on the campaign, writes Nathaniel Parish Flannery for The Atlantic. “For the campaigns, the hope is that something that comes out of social media will get picked up as news and broadcast more widely,” commented the Council on Foreign Relation’s Shannon O’Neil in the article. However, Flannery writes that “[c]andidates have…seen the strategy backfire, as viral videos of awkward stumbles during important speeches by both Josefina [Vázquez Mota] and Enrique Peña Nieto spread rapidly across the web.”

U.S. House Speaker Urges Engagement with LatAm

On May 8, U.S. House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) addressed the Council of the Americas’ 42nd Washington Conference, cautioning that disengaging Latin America could threaten security and economic stability in the Western Hemisphere. He advocated for a free enterprise zone in the Americas, and spoke about the threat of organized crime in the region. “The best defense against…the destructive aspirations of international criminals is for the United States to double down on a policy of direct engagement,” he said. 

Access full coverage of COA’s 42nd Washington Conference on the Americas, including summaries of remarks by speakers such as Boehner, U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano, and Argentine Vice President Amado Boudou. 

Pope Rounds out Tour of Mexico and Cuba

Benedict XVI arrived in Mexico on Friday, where he spent three days before leaving for Cuba on Tuesday. He will return to Rome tomorrow. Beyond entertaining Mexicans by donning a sombrero, the pope decried the drug violence affecting the country and asked for Mexico to honor religious freedom. The papal visit comes at a time when the Mexican Catholic Church is increasingly politicized, and the role of the institution in public life has reached legislative debate, according to analysis from The Los Angeles Times. “[A]lthough the Catholic Church has almost always enjoyed a powerful position [in Mexico], it has taken on a particularly activist role in partisan politics during the last decade,” says the article.

The pope’s visit to Cuba has invited inevitable comparisons to Pope John Paul II’s visit to the country in 1998. In a post for ForeignPolicy.com's Argument blog, Cuban blogger Yoani Sánchez writes about the general lack of enthusiasm among Cubans. “At the end of the nineties, Karol Wojtyla inspired us to hope. But now, in 2012, national cynicism conspires against enthusiasm. We already know, for example, that the phrase, ‘Let Cuba open herself to the world and let the world open itself to Cuba,’ never became more than the beautiful intention of the Polish pope.” 

Read an AS/COA Online News Analysis on concerns in Mexico and Cuba preceding the papal visit.

Looking at a Rapidly Changing Cuba

The Economist this week features a 10-page special report on Cuba, with the headline “Cuba hurtles towards capitalism.” Articles focus on the island’s economic reforms, the consequences of those reforms, and relations with the United States. “After 50 years in which it has been an exception, the island’s destiny increasingly resembles that of its region. It is high time that those on both sides of the Florida Strait recognize that,” says the publication.

North American Defense Heads Talk Transnational Security

Mexico’s Defense Secretary General Guillermo Galván and Secretary of the Navy Admiral Mariano Saynez Mendoza met with the Canadian Defense Minister Peter MacKay and U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta in Ottawa on March 27 for the first trilateral meeting of North American defense ministers. Participants focused on the threat posted by Mexican organized crime and agreed to boost intelligence and security cooperation. “Quite frankly, these cartels don't recognize borders, they don't recognize nationalities,” said McKay.