Recasting the Security Policy in Central America

May 10, 2012

In the mid-1990s, the Inter-American Development Bank published various reports indicating that El Salvador and Guatemala had the highest homicide rates in Latin America. Fast-forward sixteen years later and these two countries form, along with neighboring Honduras, the most violent region in the world by all accounts.

With a combined population of 28 million, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador constitute the northern triangle of Central America; a sub-region that has experienced almost twice-as-much violence as Mexico has since 2006, when Calderon’s war on drugs started. According to official data, approximately 50 thousand people have been killed in Mexico since 2006. In contrast, the northern triangle, with a population four times smaller than Mexico, has endured nearly 90,000 murders during that same period. But while Mexico, with an annual homicide rate of 18 deaths per one hundred thousand inhabitants, is a tragedy, the northern triangle, with average homicide rates surpassing 60 per one hundred thousand, is a catastrophe.

Many believe that the appalling rates of violence in the sub-region are the result of the penetration of Mexican and Colombian drug cartels.  According to this argument, in their effort to control the drug routes from South America to the United States, criminal organizations are not only bringing unparalleled violence to Central America, but also taking over highly fragile public institutions.  The logical extension of this argument then is that this relentless assault of transnational gangs can only be addressed with greater police and military force.

Although the presence of criminal cartels has undeniably contributed to the skyrocketing violence in the northern triangle, the fundamental problem of security in Central America does not have to do merely with drug traffickers—or social conditions, for that matter. It has to do with government institutions.  It has to do with local political and criminal-justice organizations that are extremely corrupt. It has to do with institutions that have been historically pervaded by local criminal lords, death squads, crooked politicians, and vicious paramilitaries who were present long before the Mexican Zetas or the Colombian syndicates began crowding the illegal enterprises of the region. 

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Guatemala Works toward Increased Security

April 30, 2012

During last year’s presidential campaign in Guatemala, many were wary of what a government headed by a former military officer, then-candidate Otto Pérez Molina, would look like. Specifically, the concerns centered on if Guatemala could retrogress to the era of abuse and totalitarianism that ruled the country from 1954 to 1986.

To the surprise of many, however, things appear to have turned out quite the opposite. President Pérez Molina of the Partido Patriota (Patriot Party) has thus far helped restore confidence in government institutions in a country plagued by high levels of organized crime and impunity.

The president has governed pragmatically, particularly by way of his progressive stance on drug decriminalization: an issue that dominated the media coverage of the Sixth Summit of the Americas earlier this month in Cartagena, Colombia. His decriminalization position represents a major shift in a country with strong traditional and religious values and a highly conservative economic and political class.

The hemisphere is listening. At the summit, Organization of American States (OAS) member-states agreed for the regional body to investigate the prospect of decriminalizing drugs—a notable breakthrough from previous regional conferences. Although some believe this is a political strategy to pressure Washington to boost aid in Guatemala, Pérez Molina’s push has brought results, including President Barack Obama’s recent announcement to increase security cooperation in Central America.

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Chile Most Inclusive Country in Hemisphere, Says AQ Study

April 26, 2012

With today’s release of its Spring 2012 issue, Americas Quarterly has unveiled a new index that measures social inclusion in the Americas. This ranking evaluates 15 different indicators and compares them across 11 countries in the hemisphere. The variables include a country’s economic competitiveness, percent of national GDP spent on social programs, level of political and civil freedoms, and citizen perception of personal empowerment and government responsiveness in that country.

Out of a maximum of 100, Chile came out on top with a score of 71.9, while Guatemala ranked lowest at 7.5. The index praises Chile’s “consistently high rankings across almost all indicators” and cites “severe inequalities by race and ethnicity” in the case of Guatemala, adding that “Indigenous and Afro-Guatemalans lag far behind” socioeconomically. Uruguay and Brazil ranked second and third, respectively.

For four variables—enrollment in secondary school, percent of population living on more than $4 per day, access to adequate housing, and percent of population with access to a formal job—Americas Quarterly uses data collected by the World Bank in household surveys and disaggregated by race and gender.

According to the index, social inclusion is defined as “the concept that a citizen has the ability to participate in the basic political, economic and social functioning of his or her society. It includes not just economic empowerment, but also access to basic social services, access to infrastructure (physical and institutional), access to the formal labor market, civil and political participation and voice, and the absence of legally sanctioned discrimination based on race, ethnicity or gender.”

Access the full results of—and methodology behind—AQ’s social inclusion index.

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Guatemalan President Completes First 100 Days with High Approval

April 24, 2012

Survey results released yesterday show that 82 percent of Guatemalans consider President Otto Pérez Molina’s performance during his first 100 days in office “good” or “acceptable,” while 11 percent consider it “bad.” Approval of the formal military general, who represents the Partido Patriota (Patriot Party) was highest (87 percent) in the capital, falling to 82 percent in rural areas and 81 percent in other urban areas.

The survey of 1,201 Guatemalans was conducted between April 10 and 15 by the private firm Prodatos and published yesterday by the newspaper Prensa Libre. It had a confidence level of 95 percent and a margin of error of 2.8 percent.

Pérez Molina’s stance on education, security and decriminalization appeared to be among the factors most strongly influencing Guatemalans’ perceptions of his administration. Manuel Pérez Lara, an analyst and dean of the Universidad del Istmo, said, “My sense is that [the citizenry] recognizes a certain leadership in the new government, in that its lines of action have been clear and defined from the beginning.” Eight-two percent of those surveyed approved of the government’s performance on education issues, 81 percent supported its fight against delinquency, 71 percent responded favorably to its initiatives to combat narcotrafficking, and 67 percent supported its efforts to fight corruption. In contrast, 12 percent of survey respondents said the president’s efforts to decriminalize drugs are “the worst” thing he has done.

The survey results also show that Guatemalan citizens recognize that much remains to be done, although they are on the whole positive about their current leadership and the future. Forty-eight percent of respondents said they thought things would improve in Guatemala in the next few months, compared with 23 percent who believe things will stay the same and 29 percent who say they will get worse. The majority of respondents consider President Pérez Molina and Vice President Roxana Baldetti “hard-working,” “well-intentioned,” “honest,” “sincere,” and “open to dialogue.”

In an interview with Prensa Libre, Pérez Molina said he would rate his first 100 days an “eight,” although he acknowledged that the period is a short one from which to evaluate his administration. He cited fiscal reform and the Hambre Cero program to combat malnutrition as signal accomplishments.

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Monday Memo: AQ’s Top-Five Expected Stories for the Week of April 9

April 9, 2012

Top stories this week are likely to include: Dilma Rousseff in Washington; Sixth Summit of the Americas on Saturday; Chávez possibly seeking treatment in Brazil; Maras and Zetas reportedly joining forces; and Boudou under investigation.

Dilma in Washington: Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff begins a three-day visit to Washington today, where she will meet with her U.S. counterpart Barack Obama. This is Rousseff’s first visit to the U.S. since taking office in January 2011. Aside from meetings at the White House, Rousseff will speak at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce later today, and give a public speech at Harvard University tomorrow. In the Financial Times, Moisés Naim calls for the two countries to agree to a trade deal as a tangible outcome. Adds AQ Editor-in-Chief, Christopher Sabatini, “There will be plenty to discuss, from improving bilateral commerce and investment, Brazil’s recent flurry of legislation favoring local content and business, Iran, and—I hope—the upcoming presidential elections in Venezuela.”

Summit of the Americas on Saturday: Cartagena, Colombia, will host this weekend the Sixth Summit of the Americas, the regional conference of heads of state organized under the aegis of the Organization of American States. This year’s theme is “Connecting the Americas: Partners for Prosperity.” But will the summit yield any significant results? Notes Sabatini: “While this will be a great opportunity to show off how far Colombia has come in the 18 years since the summit process started, there is really very little the summit can accomplish beyond speeches and vague promises.”

Chávez May Seek Treatment in Brazil: Although Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez landed in Havana on Sunday to receive his latest round of radiotherapy, Brazilian media has been reporting that Chávez may seek further treatment at Sírio-Libanês hospital in São Paulo. This is the same hospital where former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva last year successfully recovered from cancer surgery. Specifically, O Globo has reported—citing anonymous sources—that Chávez’ cancer has metastasized and may spread to his liver. Although the Venezuelan embassy in Brasília has denied the reports, pay attention to how this story develops over the coming days.

Maras-Zetas Alliance: Guatemalan authorities this weekend reported that the deadly Mara Salvatrucha gang, which dominates Central America’s Northern Triangle, has formed a pact with the equally dangerous Zetas group in Mexico for control of key drug transit routes from South America to the United States. In an already violence-plagued Central America, the alliance spells bad news for counternarcotics officials and may bolster the positions of Guatemalan President Otto Pérez Molina—a proponent of drug legalization—at this weekend’s Summit of the Americas. “An alliance between two of the region’s most feared criminal networks yet again reinforces the critical need for a real regional approach to reducing insecurity. The drug traffickers don’t respect borders and neither should counternarcotics efforts,” notes AQ Senior Editor Jason Marczak.

Future of Boudou: Argentine Vice President Amado Boudou  is now under investigation by federal authorities for his actions as economy minister—in the two years prior to assuming the vice-presidency—specifically that he helped printing company Ciccone Calcográfica get out of bankruptcy. Boudou has denied the charges and still has the full support of President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and her administration. After a raid of Boudou’s apartment last week, there may be new developments this week on the ongoing investigation.

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Petrocaribe and Guatemalan Energy

March 26, 2012

Small countries like Guatemala hold little leverage in global energy markets; not surprisingly, Guatemalans are also strongly feeling the adverse effects of rising petroleum prices in their daily activities.

As the saying goes, good business trumps politics—and Guatemala proves the maxim true. Although firmly opposed to acceding into the Petrocaribe agreement with Venezuela in 2008, President Otto Pérez Molina is now looking south to Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez’ Petrocaribe organization for any possible relief. He is left with few choices as fuel prices hover closer to 40 quetzales ($5.15) per gallon.

Guatemala has tried to position itself as a Central American petroleum hub through efforts to get off the ground construction of a possible regional refinery and by attracting investments into the exploration and production of its designated drilling blocks. But despite these efforts, Guatemala has not been able to finalize any refinery deals nor has it attracted much international interest in its oil exploration activities.

More recently, in 2011, to the dismay of government officials, only two natural resource companies submitted bids for the four drilling blocks made available to investors that year. With up to 12 potential onshore and offshore oil areas currently available for exploration, Guatemala will have to raise the country’s profile in key global energy hubs. Another key challenge for bringing in energy investment is putting forth clear and more investment-friendly laws.

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Questioning Drug Legalization in Central America

March 13, 2012

Over the past weeks, an unprecedentedly open debate has arisen over the wisdom of prevailing anti-drug policy in the Western Hemisphere. The present U.S.- led  strategy, which relies heavily on aggressive interdiction and law enforcement, is being openly called a failure and even counterproductive by some Latin American leaders, who are asking for renewed discussion of other options, including, most notoriously from the U.S. perspective, the legalization of consumption. The heavy emphasis of anti-drug policy on repression, say these critics, has encouraged the domination of the drug trade by well-organized, heavily armed, ruthless and extremely violent cartels, with horrifying effects.

Not coincidentally, the epicenter of the debate is Central America, a transshipment center for up to 80 percent of drugs headed for the U.S., where criminal gangs have overwhelmed weak governments and helped make some of these societies—especially Honduras and Guatemala—among the world’s most dangerous. One of the most interesting aspects of the debate is that the argument for legalization is being promoted most forcefully by Guatemala’s newly-elected president, Otto Pérez Molina, a right-leaning ex-general and former director of military intelligence during the country’s civil war: nobody’s idea of a naïve idealist.

The U.S., whose treasure, power and prestige has been invested in the war on drugs (a term now officially abandoned) since the Nixon administration, has reacted defensively to criticism. The Obama administration sent Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano on a tour of the region to attempt to tamp down opposition, while Vice President Joe Biden met with the regions’ presidents soon after. Biden said last week that while the U.S. was not opposed to discussing the merits of drug policy, there was no chance that the U.S. would change its position against legalization. In the end, Biden mentioned in Tegucigalpa, Honduras, last week only that the Obama administration was asking the U.S. Congress for $107 million in continuing security assistance for the region in the coming year.

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Finally, Fiscal Reform in Guatemala

March 9, 2012

Guatemala’s recently passed fiscal reform, scheduled to take effect in 2013, raises taxes for upper-middle-class and wealthy earners.

Fiscal reform is an issue of particular importance in Guatemala, a nation with one of the world’s greatest gaps in income distribution. While Guatemala’s annual GDP is the highest in Central America, tax rates have consistently hovered around 10 percent, the lowest in the entire region. The international community has long encouraged fiscal reform as an obvious step toward reducing debt and inequality. In a visit to the country in 2010, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton expressed firm support for the measure.

As part of the 1996 Peace Accords ending Guatemala’s 36-year civil war, the government agreed to raise tax revenues as a percentage of GDP from 8 percent to 12 percent by the year 2000. The previous administration, under President Álvaro Colóm, made repeated efforts to pass a fiscal reform only to be blocked by resistance from congress and the private sector.

However, last month the fiscal reform package passed in expedited fashion as a matter of national urgency: with more than 105 of 158 representatives supporting it, Guatemala’s Congress was able to hold an immediate vote, bypassing a lengthy debate process. It passed in Congress with 102 votes, a near two-thirds majority.

The reform will allow Guatemalans earning less than 48,000 quetzales (US $6,200) yearly to pay nothing in taxes; currently all earning above 36,000 quetzales (US $4,645) are obliged to pay. Those earning over 300,000 quetzales (US $38,709) annually will pay 7 percent income tax, up from 5 percent. Middle-class earners making between 48,000 and 300,000Q will pay 5 percent.

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Americas Society Releases White Paper on Political Participation and Social Inclusion

March 8, 2012

At the end of February, Americas Society released a white paper titled Political Representation & Social Inclusion: A Comparative Study of Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Guatemala as a part of its Social Inclusion Program.

The white paper aims to answer the question: Does the increased presence of Indigenous and Afro-descendant representatives in national legislatures make a difference for these populations? The report presents the findings and conclusions of Americas Society’s Ford Foundation-funded research on political inclusion, with a goal to help bring greater attention to the gains and challenges of race- and/or ethnicity-based political representation in Latin America. It analyzes how political representation of traditionally marginalized populations has changed over time, from 1986 to 2012, and if it has affected policy in favor of these populations.

The report draws on field research conducted in Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Guatemala—four countries with sizable Indigenous and/or Afro-descendant populations. The comparative report and individual country case studies explore the unique political and social movements and constitutional reforms that paved the way for greater ethnic or racial representation and their effectiveness in representing and defending their communities’ demands once in office. In total, 12 congressional sessions and two constituent assemblies between 1986 and 2012 are observed.

Access the full white paper: Political Representation & Social Inclusion: A Comparative Study of Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Guatemala.

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En Guatemala, Una Mujer Maya Defiende los Derechos Humanos

February 28, 2012

A través del hemisferio occidental, activistas ciudadanos fuera del sector público luchan cotidianamente por los derechos humanos y una sociedad más justa e igual; en la comunidad maya guatemalteca, Aura Lolita Chávez es una lideresa que defiende los derechos de los pueblos mayas, y recién la entrevisté.

Ella fue nacida en Santa Cruz del Quiché—160 kilómetros al noroccidente de la capital guatemalteca. Lolita es la fundadora y coordinadora del Consejo de Pueblos K’ichés, una instancia integrada por lideres indígenas de distintas regiones del departamento de Quiché y que busca fomentar una mayor participación de los sectores marginados y discriminados de la sociedad guatemalteca.

Su constante lucha a favor de los pueblos indígenas le ha costado una serie de acciones en su contra como denuncias en el Ministerio Público y en otras instancias judiciales porque constantemente lucha por la defensa de la vida, madre naturaleza, la tierra y el territorio. También, propugna mensajes de lucha y resistencia ante las políticas estatales que marginan o relegan a los indígenas a posiciones no deseadas, una de sus fuertes luchas es contra la explotación y exploración minera y la mala utilización de los recursos naturales, también es conocida por la organización de protestas y el bloqueo de carreteras para que las autoridades atiendan las peticiones de los pueblos indígenas.

Entre sus principales metas está el lograr una mejor calidad de vida para los pueblos de Quiché—por ello en una actividad recientemente declaró que los pueblos indígenas están en contra de las mínimas regalías que las grandes empresas mineras dejan al Estado sin que las comunidades afectadas se vean beneficiadas. Por ello exclamó, “Decimos sí a la vida y no a las regalías, porque nuestra tierra no se vende, se recupera y se defiende.”

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Monday Memo: AQ’s Top-Five Expected Stories for the Week

February 27, 2012

AQ Online today launches its weekly Monday Memo that looks ahead to what it expects to be the top headline grabbers for the week. The top anticipated stories for the week of February 27 include: Hugo Chávez’ surgery; U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano’s current five-country Latin America tour; U.S. Vice President’s forthcoming visit to Mexico and Honduras; the search for a new prime minister in Haiti; and FARC suspending kidnappings in Colombia.

Chávez' Cancer: As the Venezuelan president heads to Cuba for a second surgical operation, the rumor mill on his real health status will continue as will the discussion about what its implications will be for Venezuela's October presidential election. Christopher Sabatini, AQ editor-in-chief, observes: “While it may translate into sympathy support, President Chávez' lack of transparency about his illness and treatment will likely raise fears among some Venezuelans about their future and a potential successor—irrespective of what the president says upon his release.”

Napolitano on Latin America Tour: U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano begins a five-country tour today through Wednesday in Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, and Panama. According to a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) press release, Secretary Napolitano will be accompanied by Acting Commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection David Aguilar and DHS Assistant Secretary for International Affairs Alan Bersin. Her visit is likely intended to reiterate support for security measures like the Central America Regional Security Initiative and reinforce counter-trafficking efforts to interdict narcotics through key transit points.

Biden to Mexico and Honduras: U.S. Vice President Joe Biden will visit Mexico and Honduras on March 4-6, meeting with both Presidents Calderón and Lobo. Why is the Vice President going to Honduras?  While Mexico remains an important economic, diplomatic and strategic partner in the war on drugs, the trip to Honduras is a mystery. Since the 2009 coup, Honduras has become the murder capital of Central America. Two weeks ago, a fire at a Honduran prison left 350 inmates dead—an incident that Human Rights Watch blamed on poor and overcrowded conditions in Honduran prisons.

Haiti Prime Minister Watch: The abrupt resignation of Haitian Prime Minister Gary Conille on Friday culminated weeks of disagreement between him and President Michel Martelly. The departure of the former UN diplomat and favorite of the international aid community is a blow for both political stability in Haiti and for donor nations that had great hopes in a government that included his technical skills. Jason Marczak, AQ senior editor, says: “Expect President Martelly to move quickly in naming a successor, with a candidate likely announced this week.” Foreign Minister Laurent Lamothe is one possibility as is Chief of Staff Ann-Valerie Milfort. However, both would face a tough confirmation by an opposition-controlled legislature. 

FARC Hostage Release: Colombia's FARC announced on Sunday that it will suspend all kidnapping and free remaining prisoners. Is this a political ploy or a true change in tactics? Given the group's decentralized nature, it is unclear whether the FARC secretariat can actually enforce the order, if it chooses to do so. Expect renewed debate this week on whether this may help to clear the way for an eventual peace dialogue or if the current strategy should continue without talks.

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Guatemala and the U.S.: Priorities in the Bilateral Relationship

February 23, 2012

With a visit this week to Washington by Guatemalan Foreign Minsiter Harold Caballeros, and an impending first-time visit to Guatemala City by U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano, Guatemala appears to have momentarily captured the attention of the United States. For Guatemala, the bilateral relationship is a top foreign policy priority. In addition, the over 1.2 million Guatemalans living in the U.S. are an economic lifeline to their native country, representing 10 percent of Guatemala’s GDP .

Guatemala’s fate is invariably tied to its Northern Triangle neighbors; each face an uphill battle in increasing the protections for migrants, reducing rampant organized crime and strengthening incomplete security apparatuses. For the U.S., relations with Guatemala are largely viewed within a larger Central American context, particularly through the Sistema de Integración Centroamericana (Central American Integration System—SICA). Guatemala also is the beneficiary of USAID projects and the U.S. as well supports Guatemala’s UN-mandated Comisión Internacional Contra la Impunidad en Guatemala (International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala—CICIG). Still, funding increases for the Central American Regional Security Initiative is one area in which Guatemalans are lobbying for more support. 

With democratic consolidation solidifying in Guatemala, the U.S. has the opportunity to address other Guatemala-specific issues that lie near the forefront of the bilateral relationship. One would be granting Temporary Protection Status for undocumented Guatemalans living in the U.S., the economic lifelines of Guatemala. Another would be for the U.S. to further boost investments in security and development to the levels that other regional and global partners receive from the United States. Lifting the current military cooperation embargo against Guatemala would further provide the country with the technology, know-how and equipment to fight organized crime within its territory, a problem that is severely crippling the central government. Considering that Guatemala shares a border with Mexico and is used as a “bridge” for most narcotics trafficked to the United States, Guatemala should be part of the solution to the violence plaguing the isthmus. 

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Presidents of El Salvador, Guatemala Open to Legalizing Drugs

February 14, 2012

President Otto Pérez Molina of Guatemala said Monday that his country and others in Central America should consider legalizing drugs to help reduce violence in the region. Speaking at a press conference with President Mauricio Funes of El Salvador after a meeting on crime and security issues, Pérez Molina said, “We’re bringing the issue up for debate. If drug consumption isn’t reduced, the problem [of drug trafficking] will continue.” Funes, too, said he was “open to discussion” in his country on the matter.

Pérez first indicated his support for legalization in a radio interview on Sunday, saying his proposal would include legalization of consumption and transportation of drugs. He plans to bring the issue up at a summit of Central American leaders next month.  The U.S. Embassy in Guatemala responded to the proposal with strong criticism, issuing a statement in which it said to legalize drugs would represent “a threat to public health and safety.” Pérez Molina said he considered the statement to be “premature” and that the U.S. should be a part of the debate.

Pérez Molina, a former general, was elected in November 2011 and took office last month promising to crack down on crime, including military action against drug cartels. In his first month in office, he has transformed himself into one of the strongest voices in favor of legalization. Anita Isaacs, a Guatemala expert and professor of political science at Haverford College, said the change could be a political calculation to pressure the U.S. into providing Guatemala with more military aid, while Pérez Molina’s backers say the change reflects a realization that, with continued U.S. demand for drugs, Guatemala will never have the resources to stem the flow of drugs north.

A growing number of Latin American leaders have expressed support for the legalization of drugs. President Santos has said it is a theme that “must be addressed,” and that he would be open to legalizing drugs if the entire world were. Former Presidents Vicente Fox, of Mexico, and Fernando Enrique Cardoso, of Brazil, have also expressed support.

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La Presencia de Mujeres en la Toma de Decisiones en Guatemala

February 6, 2012

Después de las elecciones generales realizadas en Guatemala en septiembre del año pasado y de la toma de posesión de esa autoridades electas el mes pasado, se ha constatado que la inclusión de más mujeres en puestos de toma de decisiones sigue siendo un reto tanto para las autoridades y una de las demandas del movimiento de mujeres en este país, pues los datos muestran nuevamente un estancamiento en el tema.

Para Dora Amalia Taracena—de la organización Convergencia Cívico Político de Mujeres—un hecho histórico en el país es que por primera vez asumió una mujer como Vicepresidenta de la República, Roxana Baldetti, lo que se considera un avance innegable y digno de reconocer.

Taracena señaló que en el Congreso de la República la situación hasta este momento es la misma, pues en esta nueva legislatura se reporta la presencia de 19 diputadas de 158, al igual que a nivel de alcandías donde de 333 puestos, sólo siete son ocupados por mujeres.

La profesional indicó que a nivel de ministerios, de 14 sólo tres están dirigidos por mujeres: educación; desarrollo social; y ambiente y recursos naturales. Se está a la espera de la oficialización de las secretarías para saber cuántas mujeres serán incluidas.

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Infrastructure: a Prerequisite for Central American Prosperity

February 3, 2012

As the global marketplace becomes increasingly competitive, the pressures of manufacturing costs have risen to the forefront. These challenges drive the locations of manufacturing, where products are transported and where investors look to spend their capital. It seems that the days of faulty, substandard major projects in Central America are over as individual governments take seriously the attractions for businesses to manufacture in other world regions.

From Guatemala to the end of the isthmus at Panama, Central American nations have all realized that the only way their countries can be competitive in the modern global economy is by building a first-class infrastructure. These outputs must offer sufficient capacity to handle the demands of the movement and delivery of goods, people and services in a cost-effective and efficient manner. Every country is pouring significant funds into infrastructure, with Panama, Guatemala and Costa Rica leading the pack. 

Panama, which is often considered to be the “hub of the Americas” in terms of maritime and aviation, has spent over $3 billion in projects related to the widening of the Panama Canal, and another $3 billion in the construction of a metro-rail transportation system, among other initiatives.  Meanwhile, Costa Rica has posted an impressive growth rate in recent years due primarily to tourism and producing high-value products. However, Costa Rica has been criticized for its lack of infrastructure and for the bureaucratic delays that surround the approval of any major project. With hopes of sustaining its current growth, Costa Rica has responded to this criticism by reforming its concessions law to further attract investment as well as signing a historic free-trade agreement with China, aimed at attracting heavy infrastructure-related foreign direct investment as it recently did.

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From Guatemala. A First-Hand Account of Rios Montt's Trial

January 27, 2012

Former president Efraín Rios Montt will stand trial for genocide and crimes against humanity, after he refused to testify in his defense during Thursday's investigation phase.

Rios Montt will remain free, on Q500000 bail ($64000) and live under house arrest until the trial date is set, which will be at least two months from now. He faces 20 to 30 years in prison per charge.

Firecrackers and cheers greeted the news outside the Palacio Justicia, where the proceedings were broadcast to a crowd that could not get into a packed courtroom. Inside, the handful of Ixil Mayans that had made the long journey to watch proceedings remained stoic, as their 29-year wait for accountability moved a step closer to ending.

A crowded courtroom on the 15th floor of the Torre de Tribunales started 30 minutes late as over 300 people packed into the Primera Corte de Alto Riesgo.

Prosecutors from the Ministerio Publico made their way through a wealth of evidence, including documents, expert analysis, military plans, witness testimonials, forensic anthropology and video in an attempt to prove their allegations.

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Guatemalans Protest against Domestic Violence

January 23, 2012

In a symbolic display of solidarity, roughly 12,000 Guatemalan citizens formed a human chain on Saturday around Volcán de Agua, one of Guatemala’s 37 volcanoes, to protest the high level of domestic violence throughout the country. This volcano, referred to as Hunapú by the Indigenous Mayan population, is extinct and its peak stands at 3,765 meters (12,352 feet) high.

Using the slogan “Rompe el Ciclo” (Break the Cycle), protestors spanned all ages and genders. The demonstration was well attended by foreign and domestic politicians, including Guatemala’s new president and vice president, Otto Pérez Molina and Roxana Baldetti. President Pérez Molina said, “We want violence to end in this country, we don't want Guatemala to be one of the most violent countries in the world.” Pérez Molina campaigned on a platform of drastically reducing violent crime.

The protest called to attention Guatemala’s rising rate of domestic violence. Government statistics indicate that 646 women were murdered in 2011—almost half of them inside their own homes. Guatemalan daily Prensa Libre notes that domestic violence is the crime most reported to the Ministerio Público (Public Ministry). The ministry is led by Attorney General Claudia Paz y Paz and, despite showing signs of reform, Guatemala still holds one of the highest rates of impunity; less than 4 percent of crimes result in successful conviction of perpetrators.

Nonetheless, this weekend’s protest shows promising signs for the future, especially with the youth in attendance. British Ambassador to Guatemala Julie Chappell, who helped organize the human chain, commented, “We are trying to bring about a generational change of attitudes.”

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A First-Hand Account of Pérez Molina’s Inauguration in Guatemala

January 20, 2012

With an emphatic, “I swear,” last weekend Otto Pérez Molina became the first former soldier to be democratically elected as president of Guatemala since the 1996 Peace Accords.

By his side was Roxana Baldetti, who was sworn in as the first woman to hold the title of vice-president in the country’s history.

The inauguration, attended by 98 international missions, including 12 heads of state and Spain’s Prince Felipe de Borbon, had an element of tension to it. When President Otto Pérez Molina promised to spend 55-60 percent of his government’s time on security, he could not have meant within the first 24 hours of his presidency.

Events around the country threatened to overshadow Pérez Molina’s big day.

The murder of congressman Valentin Leal Caal, in close proximity to the Congress building in Zone One of Guatemala City, occurred a day before the presidential handover.  Leal Caal was elected as a candidate for LIDER, headed by Manuel Baldizón, who lost to the retired general in the second round of the Guatemalan election in November.

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AQ Slideshow: Navidad Guatemalteca

January 16, 2012

Las comunidades indígenas guatemaltecas celebraron Navidad con sus propios costumbres.

Fotos y pies de foto cortesía de Hector Javier Tecúm.

Aquí son unos comentarios sobre las celebraciones:

Cofradías en Chichicastenango: En las fiestas del fin del año las cofradías que son integradas por líderes Indígenas rinden homenaje a las imágenes de San José San Sebastián y Santo Tomás, este último es el patrono del pueblo.

Nacimiento en el convento de Chichicastenango: En el convento del municipio de Chichicastenango preparan un nacimiento con las imágenes de San José y la virgen María esperando el nacimiento de Jesús, éste es visitado por cientos de personas.

Nacimiento en Esquipulas: Esquipulas es un municipio situado al oriente del país, es conocido como capital centroamericana de la fe, debido a que en estas fechas llegan a este lugar miles de peregrinos de toda América Central y México. En la imagen se observa un nacimiento.

Nacimiento en casa particular: En la mayoría de casas se coloca el árbol navideño, además del nacimiento o misterio que representa el nacimiento de Jesús.

Presentan nacimiento de Jesús: Un grupo de niños Indígenas del municipio de Chichicastenango presentó una obra del teatro llamado en esos lugares como “Pastorela” en la que representó la historia del nacimiento de Jesús.

Tradicional baile del palo volador: Solamente en tres lugares de toda Guatemala se presenta el baile del palo volador representado por bailadores disfrazados de monos quienes se sujetan de una cuerda que gira alrededor de un árbol, conforme se desenreda la cuerda ellos van bajando al suelo. Este es un baile que representa la historia de una abuela cuyos nietos se convirtieron en monos narrado en el libro sagrado de los indígenas Kichés el “Popol Wuj.”

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El Gobierno de Otto Pérez Molina y la Representación de los Menos Favorecidos

January 13, 2012

Este 14 de enero, en Guatemala van a tomar posesión las nuevas autoridades quienes llevarán el rumbo del país. La población, como cada cuatro años, mantiene la esperanza de que las autoridades electas puedan responder a las principales demandas, especialmente de todos los sectores tradicionalmente marginados como el caso de los pueblos Indígenas y las mujeres.

Es importante destacar que en los últimos años ha existido una mayor participación de los sectores Indígenas en la elección de autoridades locales como el caso de las alcaldías municipales. Sin embargo en el caso de los principales puestos como la presidencia o las diputaciones, aun es muy marcada la discriminación y las pocas oportunidades que los partidos políticos brindan a los sectores Indígenas.

Por ejemplo en el departamento de Quiché, al noroeste del país y uno de los que tiene mayor caudal de votantes, elige un total de ocho diputados para el Congreso de la República. De las ocho diputaciones únicamente tres son Indígenas aunque no necesariamente identificados con las causas de este sector y solamente figura una mujer por lo que es otra clara muestra de la inequidad existente en el país.

En relación a la conformación del nuevo gabinete de gobierno, de los 14 ministros solamente figura un Indígena que es el Ministro de Cultura y Deportes que estará a cargo de Carlos Batzín y solamente figuran tres mujeres para dirigir los ministerios de: educación; medio ambiente y recursos naturales; y el nuevo ministerio de desarrollo social.

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Ahmadinejad and Chávez Hold Bilateral Meetings in Caracas Today

January 9, 2012

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrived in Venezuela yesterday afternoon to kick off his four-country tour of Latin America that will also include stops in Nicaragua, Cuba and Ecuador. The Iranian head of state may also attend the January 14 inauguration of Guatemalan President-elect Otto Pérez Molina. Ahmadinejad is accompanied by several members of his cabinet, including the ministers of foreign affairs, economy, industry, and energy.

Ahmadinejad was greeted at the airport yesterday by Venezuelan Vice President Elías Jaua and will meet today with President Hugo Chávez—who was in the eastern city of Puerto La Cruz filming Aló Presidente yesterday. At a critical juncture when Iran faces global concern over its nuclear program, including tough UN sanctions and even tougher additional U.S.- and EU-led sanctions, Washington worries that Venezuela will undermine those restrictions by sending oil and money to Ahmadinejad’s embattled regime. The U.S. already placed sanctions on PDVSA, Venezuela’s state-run oil company, in May 2011 for doing business with Iran.

Over their years-long friendship, Chávez and Ahmadinejad have signed roughly 270 accords on issues like trade, construction, energy, and banking. In addition to Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba and Ecuador make up part of the Chávez-inspired Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas—the so-called “anti-imperialist” bloc of eight Latin American and Caribbean nations. Guatemala also plays an important role in global governance; it was recently awarded a temporary, two-year seat on the UN Security Council.

Ahmadinejad originally planned to visit Venezuela last September after the UN General Assembly, but cancelled at the last minute due to Chávez’ chemotherapy treatments in his recovery from cancer. Both Ahmadinejad and Chávez will fly tomorrow to Nicaragua to attend Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega’s inauguration for a second consecutive term—an event that Chávez cites as the “central purpose” of Ahmadinejad’s Latin American tour.

View a video of Ahmadinejad's arrival in Caracas:

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Otto Pérez Molina and the Guatemalan Justice System

December 21, 2011

The Guatemalan legal system has made significant improvements recently but is facing major obstacles in its attempts to bring criminals—past and present—to justice.

Impunity is an everyday event in Guatemala. From the most minor traffic offense being ignored or the less than 3 percent of murders that are investigated. However, with the trial and conviction of four former Special Forces soldiers for their roles in the Dos Erres massacre in 1982 and a steady flow of arrests of narcotraffickers wanted in the United States and corrupt police officers, things appear to be changing.

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La Navidad Guatemalteca, Delatando Las Desigualdades

December 16, 2011

Las fiestas de fin de año llegan a mediados de una época cuando nuestro país está convulsionando por el alto índice de violencia y con una realidad marcada por las injusticias sociales. También, hay alto nivel de exclusión y marginación de las poblaciones indígenas y Guatemala es uno de los países latinoamericanos con mayores desigualdades.

Mientras las clases media y alta celebran las fiestas de navidad con muchas actividades y el despilfarro de recursos, muchas familias pobres siguen su curso como cualquier otra época del año. Es decir, la navidad únicamente la ven o la escuchan a través de las canciones o las ofertas que presentan los comercios. Otros pobres en cambio aprovechan la época para buscar algún trabajo que les genere un poco más de ingresos, especialmente jóvenes indígenas de las áreas rurales quienes durante el fin de año se trasladan a la capital para vender juguetes o cualquier otro artículo navideño, para que al final de la época puedan regresar a sus comunidades con un poco de dinero para sus familias.

A pesar de estas desigualdades la mayoría de la población celebra la navidad, de distinta manera pero ese espíritu hace unir a las familias de los distintos estratos sociales. Las familias pobres celebran desde su condición esa fiesta con alguna cena, quema de juegos pirotécnicos y sobretodo la preparación de los tradicionales tamales hechas de masa de maíz o si tienen recursos con puré de papa, también se disfruta el delicioso “ponche” que es una bebida de frutas, en muchos hogares se sirve licor o vino.

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Los Generales y la Seguridad Pública en Centroamérica

November 30, 2011

Por primera vez en 26 años de incipiente democracia, llega un militar a la presidencia de Guatemala. La oferta política del General Otto Pérez Molina se enfocó en una mano dura hacia la delincuencia y narcotráfico. Curiosamente los estratos sociales y étnicos que sufrieron la mayor cantidad de abusos de derechos humanos durante el conflicto armado por parte del Ejército se decantaron por el General.

El mismo día el General Omar Halleslevens fue electo vice-presidente de la Republica de Nicaragua como compañero de fórmula del Presidente Daniel Ortega. Halleslevens habría sido instrumental en modernizar y profesionalizar las Fuerzas Armadas de Nicaragua después del conflicto armado.

Apenas unas semanas antes de que ambos militares en retiro fueran electos el General Romeo Vásquez Velásquez, ex jefe castrense de Honduras durante la crisis política del vecino país en el 2009, se menciona como candidato a la presidencia hondureña. De lograr llegar a la silla presidencial sería el primer militar en hacerlo desde 1982.

¿Qué valoración se debe hacer a lo que pareciera una tendencia en la región? Está claro que hay algunas diferencias obvias entre los tres casos. Por ejemplo, en Guatemala Pérez Molina fue electo bajo un proceso de elecciones libres, justas y democráticas mientras que en Nicaragua el proceso electoral estuvo plagado de irregularidades, ilegalidades e incoherencias. Y en el tercero de los casos Vásquez Velásquez aun ni siquiera entra en la contienda electoral formalmente.

¿Debemos interpretar estos hechos como  un síntoma o es una consecuencia de la situación de inseguridad en la región? 

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Mujeres indígenas en Guatemala con pocos avances en participación ciudadana

November 14, 2011

La participación ciudadana de las mujeres en Guatemala—especialmente las indígenas—ha experimentado muy pocos avances, según han indicado distintas lideresas y activistas de derechos humanos y organizaciones de mujeres quienes ven con preocupación que aún no hay oportunidades para que ellas puedan pasar de ser simples electoras a ser sujetas de elección popular.

Uno de los pocos aspectos positivos en relación a la participación política de las mujeres es el hecho que—por primera vez en la historia del país—el padrón general registra a más mujeres que hombres, lo que puede ser un indicio de que en el futuro las cosas puedan mejorar para este sector de la población, aunque los espacios reales en puestos de toma de decisión aun son muy incipientes.

Ante esta realidad diversas organizaciones tanto del gobierno como de la sociedad civil, buscan apoyar procesos de formación de las mujeres indígenas con el fin de lograr a futuro una mejor participación. A mediados del mes pasado, la Defensoría de la Mujer Indígena (DEMI), una instancia del gobierno, culminó un proceso de capacitación iniciado en el 2010 en Santa Cruz del Quiché, una ciudad situada a 160 kilómetros al noroccicente de la capital guatemalteca donde un mayor porcentaje de la población es de origen Maya. En este proceso se abordó el tema de la ciudadanía de las mujeres indígenas.

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Guatemala, Nicaragua Decide in Presidential Election

November 7, 2011

Guatemala and Nicaragua went to the polls yesterday to (re)elect their presidents; Otto Pérez Molina was declared the victor in Guatemala, while Nicaragua is still tabulating its votes. Pérez Molina, of the Partido Patriota (Patriot Party–PP) defeated Manuel Baldizón of the Libertad Democrática Renovada (Renewed Democratic Freedom–LIDER) party in Guatemala’s runoff election. Neither candidate had secured a majority vote in the September 11 primary.

Guatemala’s election authority, the Tribuno Supremo Electoral, notes that the PP got 53.8 percent of the vote and LIDER 46.2 percent. Pérez Molina, a former army general, has pledged to tackle Guatemala’s widespread crime and insecurity with a mano dura (firm hand), partly through hiring and training roughly 10,000 additional police officers and 2500 more soldiers.

This year’s election was historic for Guatemala because a woman—Roxana Baldetti—will assume the vice-presidency for the first time. Baldetti, a sitting congresswoman, has been a driving force in the PP calling for transparency in Guatemalan politics. She and Pérez Molina have campaigned on the promise to continue the inclusive, pro-poor programs of Sandra Torres, Guatemala’s first lady, which are highly popular. 

In Nicaragua, President Daniel Ortega and his Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional (Sandinista Front of National Liberation—FSLN) are leading in the vote count. Nicaraguan daily La Prensa is reporting that, with 38.8 percent of ballots counted, the FSLN is winning with 63.95 percent, compared to 29.09 percent for its nearest rival, Fabio Gadea of the Partido Liberal Independiente (Liberal Independent Party–PLI). Ortega, who served as president from 1985-1990 and again from 2007 through the present, is widely expected to prevail and assume a third term. Yesterday Ortega’s wife and spokeswoman, Rosario Murillo, proclaimed, “This is the victory of Christianity, socialism and solidarity.”

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From Guatemala. A Preview of the Presidential Election on Sunday

November 5, 2011

Guatemalans head to the polls again tomorrow for the second round of their 2011 presidential elections that pits LIDER’s Manuel Baldizón against Patriot Party’s Otto Pérez Molina, a former army general during the height of the country’s civil war in the 1980s.

During the first round held on September 11, Pérez Molina secured a 13 percent lead over his rival, but not enough to ensure the 50 percent required by national law to claim victory.

In a surprisingly muted secondary phase of campaigning, Pérez Molina is still the favorite to win, with a 42 to 58 percent voter base according to a poll on Thursday in Prensa Libre, one of the leading national newspapers.

Iduvina Hernandez Batres, Director of Seguridad en Democracia paints a grim picture of the election. She said, “We are living in a state of risk in Guatemala. And with the chapina curse. That curse is that we have to choose between two criminals.”

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The Guatemalan Government’s Apology for the 1954 Coup

November 1, 2011

On October 20, the day of Guatemala’s revolution, the country’s government formally apologized to the family of former President Juan Jacobo Arbenz Guzmán, who was deposed in a coup in 57 years ago.

“I want to apologize to the family for the great crime committed on June 27, 1954,” said President Alvaro Colom at the National Palace in Guatemala City. “A crime committed against the former president, his wife, his family. It was a historic crime for Guatemala—that day changed Guatemala and we have not recuperated from it since.”

It was a small ceremony held on a national public holiday to celebrate Revolution Day and only a few weeks before the second round of the election this weekend. In attendance were Jacobo Arbenz Vilanova, son of the ex-president, the government's cabinet, diplomats, national institutions, and, the list of people presented by the family.

Jacobo Arbenz Vilanova, son of the former president, receives the book Mi Esposo el Señor Presidente, a biography written by his mother, María Vilanova. Photo courtesy of Kara Andrade.

“There was no intentionality election-wise or because it's the end of the government,” said Dora Ruth del Valle Cóbar, president of Centro de Comunicación y Prensa Alternativa para el Desarrollo Humano (COPADEH). “It's our responsibility and since it's the first 20th of October that we have after signing the agreement with the victims.”

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Massive Resignations Hit Guatemala’s Governing Party

October 28, 2011

Just over a week before the second round of presidential elections in Guatemala, more than half the members of the executive committee of the governing Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza (UNE) party have resigned. Earlier this week, 13 of the committee’s 24 members publicly submitted their resignations, in what the committee’s leadership signaled as a renewal within the ranks of its organization and others suggested was a sign of internal division.

In a statement issued by the UNE, deputy secretary-general Roberto Díaz-Durán said the resignations were meant to open the doors for “new leaders and sectors” in the leadership of the organization. “This does not signify a rupture within the party,” he said, “since some members of the Executive Committee will be renamed to their posts.” The statement also said the UNE remains “united, strong and working for the country’s most needy classes through its 48 elected representatives and 136 elected mayors.”

Some analysts remain skeptical. The political analyst Mario Martínez points to the resignations as “evidence of a weakening of the [governing] party structure.” Others point out that the shake-up in the executive committee will clear the way for Sandra Torres, ex-wife of current president Álvaro Colóm, to be named secretary-general of the UNE execand from there mount a campaign for the 2015 elections. Torres’ candidacy in this year’s election was vetoed by the Guatemalan Supreme Court; the UNE has since thrown its support behind Manuel Baldizón, candidate of the Libertad Democrática Renovada (LIDER) party.

On Sunday, November 6, Baldizón will run for presidency in a second-round vote against retired general Otto Pérez Molina, of the right-wing Partido Patriota (PP), who got 36.1 percent of the votes in the first round.

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Floods Leave Scores Dead in Central America

October 18, 2011

Severe flooding has claimed the lives of more than 80 people and displaced thousands in the wake of some of the region’s heaviest rains since Hurricane Mitch ravaged Central America in 1998. After rainfall totals reached nearly 40 inches in 72 hours in the hardest-hit areas of El Salvador and Guatemala, officials in both countries declared states of emergency and issued mandatory evacuation orders to residents of low-lying areas.

According to Salvadoran emergency management office director Jorge Melendez, the downpours in El Salvador have left “27 people dead, the majority of them from mudslides that hit their dwellings.” A total of 13,874 people have been moved to 209 shelters, said Melendez. In neighboring Guatemala, 28 people have died and the death toll is expected to rise.

The immediate response of governments in the region has focused on search and rescue operations, particularly in rural areas. Already, however, analysts are predicting billions of dollars in economic losses as a result of the storm. Salvadoran President Mauricio Funes yesterday launched an appeal for international humanitarian aid. Thus far, Venezuela has pledged support and Spain has responded by sending 20 tons of supplies, including tents and hygiene kits.

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Protecting the Rights of Guatemalan Women

October 13, 2011

Dozens of artists, students, and creative types recently poured into the gray, windowless concrete building that houses Guatemala City’s Attorney General’s Office. Once inside, the scarf-wearing, tennis-shoe clad newcomers crowded the two small elevators where attorneys in suits hopped in and out of each floor, curiously touching shoulders with the visitors. On the fourth floor the doors opened onto an empty space where four rows of plastic chairs surrounded a stage with two overturned desks. The rows were soon filled by attorneys, many of them women, holding case files and pens in their hands while the visitors scampered over—many never having set foot in the building.

All were there to watch "The justice that dwells within me"—a play directed by Argentine Marco Canale and coordinated by the Spanish Cooperation in Guatemala, the Cultural Center of Spain in Guatemala and the Coordinator of the Modernization of the Justice.

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Guatemala’s Recovery from Natural Disasters

October 3, 2011

In less than 11 hours, six earthquakes struck Guatemala starting at noon local time on September 19. The southeastern area of Santa Rosa was the most affected by earthquakes that ranged from 4.5 to 5.8 magnitude on the Richter scale. The size and frequency struck the same region unexpectedly. The results: almost 5,000 people have been affected and more than 1,200 houses damaged, and encampments now dot the area after many residents lost their homes and belongings.

The government entity in charge of emergency response, Coordinadora Nacional para la Reducción de Desastres (CONRED), set up nine refuge centers for 3,500 people, confirmed spokesman David de Leon. This disaster comes after the same area was flooded in August and the River San Juan burst its banks. INSIVUMEH (Instituto Nacional de Sismología, Vulcanología, Meteorología e Hidrología) reported that August’s rainfall was 40 percent above the monthly average and in September it was still above average—by about 12 percent. The amount of rain has created massive avalanches and cut off villages with landslides killing at least four people.

But event with a state of disaster being declared in Santa Rosa, Congress has been criticized for failing to release funds to emergency response and relief services. Finance Minister Rolando del Cid Pinillos told Emisoras Unidas, the largest national radio station, that “it would be difficult to fund CONRED in the result of a disaster in Guatemala.” This bureaucratic uncertainty makes recovery even more perilious.

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La salud de las mujeres indígenas en las elecciones recientes

September 28, 2011

Una red de mujeres indígenas que vela por la salud reproductiva en Guatemala denominada REDMISAR (Red de Organizaciones de Mujeres por la Salud Reproductiva) realizó en los días previos a las elecciones generales del 11 de septiembre, varios conversatorios con candidatos a distintos puestos de elección popular para firmar una carta de compromiso de atender el tema de salud de las mujeres indígenas si llegaran a ganar.

La mayoría de candidatos a diputados y alcaldes han manifestado su interés y compromiso de trabajar por la salud de las mujeres indígenas, lo curioso ha sido la evidencia del desconocimiento de leyes que respaldan este tema, por ejemplo a principios de este año fue aprobada la Ley de Maternidad Saludable, pero aun falta la aprobación de su reglamento con el cual cobra vigencia definitivamente, pero la mayoría de candidatos la desconocen por ello en estos conversatorios, se ha compartido el contenido de esta ley.

Estos conversatorios denominados "Hacia el cumplimiento de los derechos sexuales y reproductivos”, se realizaron recientemente en los municipios de Nebaj y Joyabaj en el departamento de Quiché, además de la Red de mujeres indígenas se han integrado otras organizaciones como el Observatorio en Salud Reproductiva (OSAR) y la Red de Hombres para la Salud Reproductiva (REDHOSAR)

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Guatemala’s Election and Looking Toward the Second Round

September 16, 2011

On the day that the United States reflected over the 10-year anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attacks, Guatemala went to the polls to elect its next president. The contest pitted three leading candidates against each other: Otto Pérez Molina, a former army general, of Partido Patriota (Patriotic Party, or PP); Manuel Baldizón, business tycoon, of Libertad Democrática Renovada (Renewed Democratic Freedom, or LIDER); and academic Eduardo Suger, of Compromiso, Renovación y Orden (Commitment, Renewal and Order, or CREO).

Pérez Molina had a comfortable lead in the polls in the lead-up to the election; if he had earned more than half the vote he would have made history by being the first national candidate since the 1980s to avoid a runoff vote. But, having secured only 35 percent of votes from more than 7 million tallies, he won the first round but not by enough to avoid a second round. Meeting him in the runoff, scheduled for November 6, is Baldizón, who received 23 percent of votes. Suger finished a distant third with 16 percent.

"Several sectors of the dominant [Guatemalan] forces expected Otto Pérez Molina to win in the first round to save costs,” said Álvaro Velásquez, 42, professor of social sciences and political analyst at Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales in Guatemala City. “Now the people have spoken to contradict this. That's good news for the power of the vote.”

But Pérez Molina can still make history in November; given his extensive military background and Guatemala’s history under decades of military rule, he can be the first ex-soldier to be democratically elected in Guatemala. Baldizón, a successful businessman with alleged ties to narcotraffickers, hails from the northern region of Péten—a department that borders Mexico.

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Guatemala Presidential Election Moves to November Runoff

September 12, 2011

Preliminary results following yesterday’s presidential election in Guatemala indicate that no single candidate won over 50 percent of the vote, meaning that a runoff election will be held on November 6. With 92 percent of ballots counted by the Tribunal Supremo Electoral, Guatemala’s election supervision body, Otto Pérez Molina, a former army general, obtained 36.16 percent of the vote despite polling as high as 49 percent shortly before the election. Pérez Molina will face the second-place candidate, Manuel Baldizón, an attorney, businessman and congressman, who collected 23.40 percent.

The central issue for both campaigns is how to effectively combat Guatemala’s rampant crime and insecurity. Guatemala has one of the highest murder rates in the hemisphere, according to the World Bank: 45 murders per 100,000 citizens. Guatemala, as with its Northern Triangle counterparts Honduras and El Salvador, is a key transit route in drug trafficking between South America and the United States. The amount of illegal drugs seized in Guatemala doubled between 2008 and 2009.

Pérez Molina has pledged to fight crime with a mano dura, or iron fist. He proposes beefing up Guatemala’s security force—hiring 10,000 police officers and 2500 soldiers. Baldizón supports the death penalty and has suggested creating a national guard. Both candidates have also pledged to continue anti-poverty programs in the interest of promoting social inclusion across Guatemala.

Pérez Molina is the leader of the Partido Patriota (Patriotic Party—PP), while Baldizón is the founder of the more moderate Libertad Democrática Renovada (Renewed Democratic Freedom—LIDER) party. Regardless of the runoff election result, November’s election will usher in Guatemala’s first-ever female vice president. Pérez Molina’s running mate is Roxana Baldetti, a congresswoman, while former First Lady Raquel Blandón is on Baldizón’s ticket.

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