This article is adapted from AQ’s special report on Latin America’s space race
AQ: What are the top issues in this year’s general election?
TT: The most important thing is polarization. The polarization we saw in 2018 grew in 2022, and it is still extremely powerful. You have President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on one side, and Flávio Bolsonaro on the other, and both are extremely loved and hated figures. Public security, corruption, inflation, the relationship with the United States, and even Lula’s health will also be very important issues.
AQ: How are long-term voting trends playing out in the 2026 race?
TT: Over the last 20 years, more women have been voting, and the electorate has become older and more educated. In Brazil, evangelicals mostly vote for the right, and Catholics mostly vote for the left. Data on religion became available recently since the census was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. People expected evangelicals would be more than 30% of the population, but they reached only 27%, with Catholics at 57%. Many people think that because many evangelical leaders grew so close to politics and bolsonarismo, this drew some people away.
AQ: Polls show that many Brazilians would prefer another option in the presidential race other than Lula or Flávio. Which factors could swing their vote?
TT: That’s the million-dollar question. If inflation is high, Lula will be punished. If there’s any threat that U.S. tariffs will cause unemployment in Brazil, that will be bad for Flávio. Independents will decide in the last few weeks, based on how they are feeling. They are not really looking at the big agendas, but rather at which candidate they hate the least.
AQ: What are you expecting from the legislative elections?
TT: There have been fewer parties in the lower house over the last 10 years, and the parties are getting bigger and stronger. After this election, six or seven parties could have over 80% of the representatives. Two-thirds of the Senate will be elected this year, and if the right wins the majority, they could have enough votes to impeach Supreme Court judges. No matter who the president is next year, there will be an institutional clash between the Senate and the Supreme Court over the impeachment of judges.
—
Traumann is a political and economic analyst at GloboNews and O Globo. He is a member of Americas Quarterly’s editorial board.
This interview has been edited for clarity and length.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Emilie Sweigart
Reading Time: 2 minutesSweigart is an editor at Americas Quarterly and a policy manager at the Americas Society/Council of the Americas
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