This article is adapted from AQ’s special report on the Trump Doctrine
Guatemala
PRESIDENT
Bernardo Arévalo
IN OFFICE
Since 2024
Arévalo starts his third year in office facing judicial appointments that may determine the fate of his reform agenda. The term of U.S.-sanctioned Attorney General Consuelo Porras—an opponent of the president—expires in May. If opposition interests control the selection process for this and other key positions, new authorities could derail Arévalo’s administration by challenging proposed reforms in public contracting and water management. Security, social programs and infrastructure remain priorities in this year’s $21.4 billion budget. As part of the fight against organized crime, the government declared a 30-day state of emergency on January 18 and announced in October 2025 that it would build a maximum-security facility to hold 2,000 prisoners. Last year, Arévalo reached a migration agreement with the Trump administration, and a trade deal reduced tariffs for most Guatemalan exports to the U.S. However, the U.S.’s 1% remittances tax, starting this month, could diminish a major source of inflows; Guatemala received a record $25.5 billion in remittances last year.
TRENDS TO WATCH
- Selection of new judicial authorities
- Infrastructure projects
- Migration and security cooperation with the U.S.
GDP GROWTH
INFLATION RATE
KEY FIGURES
| Population (2026, millions) | 18.9 |
| Poverty rate (2026, World Bank definition, see note below) | 45.7% |
| Unemployment rate (2024) | 2.2% |
| Informal employment rate (2024) | 75.9% |
| Secondary education completion rate (2022) | 36.9% |
ECONOMIC INDICATORS (2026 PROJECTIONS)
| GDP growth (annual % change) | 3.6% |
| Inflation rate (annual % change) | 3.3% |
| Fiscal balance (% GDP) | -2.7% |
| China’s share of total export value (2024) | 0.3% |
| U.S. share of total export value (2024) | 32.2% |
NOTES: Poverty line is $8.30 per day in 2021 PPP. Percentages rounded to nearest decimal point.
SOURCES: Presidential approval: CID Gallup (Sept. 2025); GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, population: IMF (Oct. 2025); Share of total export value: International Trade Centre; Poverty rate: World Bank (Oct. 2025); Unemployment rate, informal employment rate: ILO; Secondary education completion rate: IDB.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Emilie Sweigart
Reading Time: 2 minutesSweigart is an editor at Americas Quarterly and a policy manager at the Americas Society/Council of the Americas
