In the September 1 general elections, Guyanese citizens voted for president, vice president, and all 65 seats in the National Assembly. Official results are pending, but preliminary tallies indicate that President Irfaan Ali has won reelection by a wide margin and that his ruling party, the People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C), will hold onto its majority in the legislature.
The count also shows that the country’s other traditionally strong coalition, A Partnership for National Unity (APNU), has been surpassed by a newcomer: We Invest in Nationhood (WIN). Now the country’s main opposition party, WIN was founded three months ago by controversial outsider candidate Azruddin Mohamed, a wealthy businessman sanctioned by the U.S. for alleged tax evasion on gold exports.
At stake is oversight of the country’s oil boom, which continues to gain momentum. Guyana’s GDP grew 43.6% in 2024, and the IMF projects a 10.3% expansion in 2025. In the election, the population of around 800,000 weighed the best choice to ensure the gains are appropriately distributed. The poverty rate remains high, around 58%, and health outcomes still lag behind regional and peer-country averages, according to the World Bank.
AQ asked analysts to share their reactions.
Francisco Monaldi
Director of the Latin America Energy Program at the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy
As expected, President Ali and his party, the PPP/C, were reelected with a wider majority than the razor-thin margin they attained in 2020. Guyana’s world-record GDP growth, driven by the oil production boom, made it hard to dislodge the party in power. Guyana has become the largest per capita oil producer in the world, only six years after oil production began. So far, the country has managed to avoid the major pitfalls of resource booms. The government has (largely) respected legal and contractual frameworks and saved a relevant portion of the fiscal revenues in the Natural Resources Fund (even though there was a concerning spending spree during the electoral cycle). Although facing delays, the government has focused infrastructure projects on the right priorities: transportation and electrification.
However, there are clouds on the horizon. The electoral over-performance of populist businessman Azruddin Mohamed, who is sanctioned by the U.S. and promised to renegotiate the contract with Exxon, could signal potential political and economic instability down the road. The collapse of the opposition PNC, the traditionally Afro-Guyanese-supported party, could lead that segment of the population to feel disenfranchised from the benefits of the oil boom.
Resource booms are not an inevitable curse, but prudent oil wealth management is quite challenging. As fiscal revenues multiply by four in the next five years, pressures to increase consumption, rather than saving or investing, will creep up, risking macroeconomic destabilization and political upheaval. In the context of an ethnically divided country with young and fragile institutions, this could derail the promise of sustainable economic development.
Shreiner Parker
Head of emerging markets at Rystad Energy
Early indicators suggest President Irfaan Ali is poised to secure a second five-year term, reinforcing the People’s Progressive Party/Civic’s (PPP/C) control amid Guyana’s booming oil economy. His vice president, Bharrat Jagdeo, an experienced former president often likened to a Dick Cheney figure, continues to exert considerable influence behind the scenes, ensuring stability in governance as Guyana’s oil production scales toward the 2050s.
This election stood out for what wasn’t at issue: There were no calls to renegotiate ExxonMobil’s Stabroek Block contract. The French adage, “The fate of glass is to break” aptly describes the eventual destiny of the Stabroek license. But that moment lies well beyond this term, and certainly beyond the Ali administration. With so much of the resource base still unfinalized, maintaining contract sanctity is prudent. Interrupting that framework now could jeopardize investor confidence, delay multi-billion-dollar developments, and ultimately diminish future government revenues.
Looking decades ahead, however, Guyana’s prolific oil potential, expected to stretch well into the 2050s, almost guarantees the Stabroek contract will one day be reconsidered. Generational shifts, economic evolution, and governance demand will all influence when and how that occurs. Today’s outcome grants the country a window, a period of calm and continuity, in which institutions and infrastructure can be strengthened as the oil economy matures.
Opposition groups, including the newcomer WIN party led by Azruddin Mohamed, remain longshots and unlikely to disrupt the PPP/C’s dominance. Instead, the enduring, ethnically polarized structure of Guyanese politics is more likely to determine how future debates over oil governance play out.
For now, investors can take confidence in a steady path forward—the government remains focused on delivering results. But the knowledge that the glass must one day break adds a vital perspective: Guyana’s oil story is not just about the immediate boom. It’s a multi-decade saga, one in which contracts, politics, and national strategy will evolve together.
Desmond Thomas
Economist and the coordinator of the Electoral Reform Group in Guyana
Guyana’s anxiously awaited general election has been concluded, virtually incident-free by all accounts. Two conditions fuel the expectations of this election. First, it marks the completion of the first term of government in the oil era, when the oil companies have ramped up production and the country has experienced astronomical growth. Second, the political crisis following the 2020 election that took five months before the new government could take office remains fresh in people’s minds. This combination of circumstances has raised the stakes on state power and caused concern of a potential repeat of the 2020 debacle.
It will take some time before the election results are finalized. Speculation on the details is risky—even as an election observer who has visited half a dozen polling places. However, a few clear impressions are emerging. Of the six political parties that entered the elections, the country will see three key players emerge. The traditional rivals, the incumbent PPP/C and the opposition APNU, have been joined by WIN (We Invest in Nationhood) under the controversial leadership of Azruddin Mohammed, accused of tax evasion on large quantities of gold exports.
Preliminary observations suggest a significantly lower than usual turnout, especially among youths along the East Bank, Demerara corridor. The main takeaway from this is that there exists a strong groundswell of dissatisfaction with developments in the new oil economy. People want change in the way the country is managed. One hopes that whatever the election outcome, the country’s political leaders will get the message that business as usual will not suffice. Depending on how well WIN does in the final count, there is also the possibility of a minority government. This may, paradoxically, be the antidote the country needs, ushering in a politics of negotiation and accommodation and adding impetus to calls for reform.
