Brazil’s presidential race has been dominated by two highly polarized candidates: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is seeking a fourth term, and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, a son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Other right-wing contenders, including former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado and Missão party president Renan Santos, remain in the single digits in most polls.
Disputes over tariffs and terrorist designations against Brazilian gangs announced by the Trump administration have made the relationship with the United States a central campaign issue. Security, corruption, inflation and affordability are among voters’ top concerns.
On October 4, Brazilians will head to the polls to elect their next president and vice president, as well as governors, two-thirds of the Senate, the entire Chamber of Deputies, and more than 1,000 state assembly seats. In the presidential and gubernatorial races, if a candidate does not secure more than 50% of votes, a second round will be held on October 25.
Below, AQ covers the presidential candidates polling at 3% and above in a July survey by Genial/Quaest, listed in alphabetical order by last name. AQ asked a dozen nonpartisan experts on Brazil to help us identify where each candidate stands on two spectrums: left versus right on economic matters, and personalistic versus institutionalist on leadership style. The results are mapped on the charts below. We’ve published the average response, with a caveat: Platforms evolve, and so do candidates.
Flávio Bolsonaro | Ronaldo Caiado
Renan Santos | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Flávio Bolsonaro
45, Senator
Partido Liberal (PL)
“It is with great responsibility that I confirm the decision of Brazil’s greatest political and moral leader, Jair Messias Bolsonaro, to entrust me with the mission of continuing our national project.”
HOW HE GOT HERE
The eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio is running a campaign centered on continuing his father’s political legacy. He served four terms in Rio de Janeiro’s state assembly (2003-19) and won his 2018 Senate campaign with more than 4 million votes. His father, currently serving a 27-year sentence after being convicted of planning a coup following his defeat in the 2022 presidential election, endorsed Flávio’s presidential bid last December. The decision came as a surprise to some observers who expected the former president to back São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas.
WHY HE MIGHT WIN
Flávio leads other right-wing contenders by a wide polling margin and is known to be less combative than his father and brothers. He is the head of the Senate’s Public Security Committee, and voters identify Flávio as tougher on crime than Lula. Despite declining national homicide rates, violence remains Brazilians’ top concern. Those dissatisfied with the current direction of the country, a majority according to Ipsos polling, may prefer a change from the incumbent administration.
WHY HE MIGHT LOSE
As recently as April, Flávio maintained a polling lead over Lula in second-round scenarios but has since lost that advantage in most surveys. A recent public spat with former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro has lost Flávio support from women and independent voters. A recording of Flávio requesting money from disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro for a film about Jair Bolsonaro was leaked in May. Flávio has denied any wrongdoing related to Vorcaro and to an alleged kickback scheme while he was in the Rio state assembly, a case that ended without a trial. Quaest polling indicates that more Brazilians blame Flávio than Lula for the 25% U.S. tariff on Brazil levied in mid-July.
WHO SUPPORTS HIM
Flávio’s strongest backing comes from voters in southern and southeastern parts of the country, particularly men and evangelicals, who make up about 27% of the population. Javier Milei and Benjamin Netanyahu have endorsed him, and Donald Trump has signaled his support.
WHAT HE WOULD DO
Flávio would seek an amnesty for his father and those convicted for their involvement in the January 8, 2023 storming of Brasília. He has released a 12-point security policy, Brasil sem Medo (Brazil without Fear) that includes plans to declare criminal groups “narcoterrorist organizations” and build five new maximum-security prisons modeled on El Salvador’s system. Flávio has not released a detailed economic plan, but would likely reduce government spending and delay the implementation of Brazil’s tax reform for one year to draft new rules.
IDEOLOGY
Ronaldo Caiado
76, former governor of Goiás
Partido Social Democrático (PSD)
“Polarization is not a feature of national politics, but a political project employed by those who benefit from it.”
HOW HE GOT HERE
A medical doctor by training, Caiado is presenting himself as an alternative to the polarization in this race. This is the second presidential campaign for the veteran conservative politician: He first ran in 1989, receiving less than 1% of the vote. Caiado served five terms in the lower house of Congress and was elected to the Senate in 2014. He was the governor of his home state of Goiás, in Brazil’s center-west agricultural heartland, from 2019 until this March, when he resigned to run for president. He secured the PSD’s nomination over fellow governors Eduardo Leite of Rio Grande do Sul and Ratinho Júnior of Paraná.
WHY HE MIGHT WIN
Caiado has built a reputation as an effective governor with a focus on fighting crime, and has longstanding ties to Brazil’s economically and politically powerful agribusiness community. His running mate is the PSD’s founder Gilberto Kassab, a savvy political operator. As a more moderate figure on the right, his candidacy may appeal to more centrist voters and those tired of the Bolsonaro family’s volatility. Recent polling suggests that if Flávio were not running, 25% of the PL candidate’s voters would instead back Caiado.
WHY HE MIGHT LOSE
Caiado is just four years younger than Lula, whose advanced age has been a recurring issue in this campaign. He has significantly lower name recognition than Lula and Flávio and reminds many voters of politicians from a previous era. Caiado has stagnated in polling over the last few months.
WHO SUPPORTS HIM
Caiado enjoys the strongest support in the state of Goiás and other parts of the Center-West. He has backing among the agribusiness sector and the Congress’ center-right caucus, known as the Centrão, which controls more than half of the lower house.
WHAT HE WOULD DO
While he criticized Jair Bolsonaro’s handling of the pandemic and the January 8, 2023 protests, Caiado has said that if elected, his first act in office would be to grant a “broad, general and unrestricted amnesty” to those involved, including the former president. On security, Caiado would classify criminal factions as terrorist organizations and seek alliances with bordering countries and the U.S. to fight crime. To address Brazil’s fiscal imbalance (the World Bank projects the national debt will exceed 82% of GDP in 2026), Caiado would cut the budgets of the executive, legislative and judicial branches by 25%. He favors processing more critical minerals domestically, rather than exporting them in raw form.
IDEOLOGY
Renan Santos
42, party president
Missão
“I am to the right of Flávio Bolsonaro.”
HOW HE GOT HERE
Santos, an anti-establishment and pro-market candidate from São Paulo, is seeking elected office for the first time. He rose to prominence as one of the founders of the Movimento Brasil Livre (MBL) in 2014, and is the president of the Missão party, registered just last year. The MBL was one of the main organizations behind the mass protests that built public pressure for the impeachment of former President Dilma Rousseff in 2016. Santos is known for mobilizing support on social media, where he has a strong following. He now presents himself as both anti-Lula and anti-Bolsonaro, despite having supported Jair Bolsonaro’s 2018 presidential campaign.
WHY HE MIGHT WIN
His social media prowess is an asset in the race, and his outsider image could help him attract anti-system voters. Polling indicates Santos has gradually risen in voter intention over the last few months, and in some surveys, he has surpassed more experienced candidates like Caiado and former Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema. Flávio’s effort to present himself as a relatively moderate candidate has created an opening for Santos to appeal to voters further to the right.
WHY HE MIGHT LOSE
Name recognition is a challenge for Santos. Recent polling shows that more than 70% of respondents do not know him, likely signaling weaker traction among older voters, which the candidate has acknowledged. Unlike the other leading contenders, Santos lacks a developed party structure. Controversial statements about women, made by Santos and members of the MBL, might alienate voters. Santos’ more radical positions on security, along with plans to eliminate favelas and racial quotas, could also cost him support.
WHO SUPPORTS HIM
Men under 30 are more likely to favor Santos, as well as voters who are fed up with establishment politics and whose top priority is security. Santos’ running mate is Aroldo Medina, a journalist and retired lieutenant colonel from Rio Grande do Sul’s military police.
WHAT HE WOULD DO
Santos has described himself as “Milei in style and Bukele in substance.” On security, he favors federal intervention in states where criminal groups control territory, treating narcotrafficking as a national security matter, and expanding international cooperation. He would implement a fiscal adjustment, raise infrastructure investment to around 4% of GDP, and replace the cash-transfer program Bolsa Família with paid work and job training programs.
IDEOLOGY
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
80, President
Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT)
“Our homeland is not for sale. Our sovereignty is nonnegotiable. Brazil belongs to Brazilians.”
HOW HE GOT HERE
Lula is seeking a fourth presidential term, framing his bid partly as a way to prevent the Bolsonaro family’s return to power. A fixture in Brazil’s politics since the 1980s, Lula narrowly defeated Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 election. In his third term, he has sought to reactivate Brazilian foreign policy while navigating a turbulent relationship with the U.S. under Trump 2.0, and has seen a boost in popularity when denouncing tariffs as infringements on Brazilian sovereignty. Over the past year, he has maintained steady approval ratings but faces an uncertain reelection campaign.
WHY HE MIGHT WIN
Since April, he has gained more support among independent voters and recovered his polling lead over Flávio. Recent surveys suggest that Lula would defeat Flávio, Caiado and Santos in second-round scenarios. In a July Quaest poll, more respondents expressed fear about the return of the Bolsonaros (46%) than Lula’s reelection (38%). Ahead of the election, the Lula government has expanded a debt-relief program and introduced temporary fuel subsidies amid rising gas prices due to the war in Iran.
WHY HE MIGHT LOSE
Despite the relative strength of Brazil’s economy, with unemployment at its lowest level since 2012, affordability remains a major issue for voters. Many are concerned about Lula’s age—if reelected, he would be 81 on inauguration day (January 5, 2027)—and polling indicates that Brazil’s electorate is shifting to the right. A June AtlasIntel survey found that respondents trusted Lula more than Flávio to manage most areas of governance except for crime and drug trafficking, a top voter priority.
WHO SUPPORTS HIM
Compared to the other candidates, Lula has stronger support in the northeast, and among women, lower-income voters, Catholics, and people 60 years old and over. Current Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, a moderate former governor of São Paulo, is his running mate again.
WHAT HE WOULD DO
Lula has stated that his fourth term “will be about helping this country take the decisive leap toward becoming a developed nation,” but has not yet announced specific economic plans. He has supported widely popular legislation to end Brazil’s six-day work week and move to a five-day, 40-hour model that does not reduce pay. Lula would likely stick to his playbook, prioritizing social programs, strengthening state energy company Petrobras and supporting oil drilling in the Amazon while curbing deforestation and expanding the use of renewables.
IDEOLOGY
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Emilie Sweigart
Reading Time: < 1 minuteSweigart is an editor at Americas Quarterly and a policy manager at the Americas Society/Council of the Americas
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