This article is adapted from AQ’s special report on Latin America’s demographic transformation
Here is a factoid that stuns virtually everyone: Chile today has a lower birth rate than Japan, at just 1.1 children per woman. While that is the lowest such number in Latin America, it does reflect a broader trend underway throughout the entire region, which as a result is now aging faster than any other part of the world.
It is a seismic change for a region that as recently as the 1960s had a birth rate approaching six per woman. The Latin American average today is 1.8, below the so-called “replacement rate” of 2.1 needed to keep population numbers steady. The implications for politics, economics, and day-to-day life are profound—and are already being felt.
In this issue’s cover story, journalist Laurence Blair explains why the “Gray Tide” washing across Latin America may end up changing the region’s politics even more than the so-called “Pink Tide” of left-of-center leaders who governed many countries in the 2000s. Reporting from Uruguay and pulling in reporting from around the region, Blair shows how this demographic transformation is causing some schools to close for a lack of students, fewer active contributors to national pension systems, and an uncertain effect on politics as seniors become an even bigger and more committed voting bloc.
However, Blair also carefully registers why it would be a mistake to frame this change exclusively as a crisis. Indeed, Latin American businesses are investing in robotics, care homes and accessible tourism as part of a “silver economy” projected to more than double in size in Latin America to some $650 billion by 2033. Some experts believe that older societies may be less likely to commit crimes, while others think the region could benefit from a mini-investment boom from retirement funds.
As Cristina Querubín, a consultant who has studied aging issues, told AQ: “It’s almost an unavoidable process. The real challenge is how we adapt to these changes, and how our societies can age with greater dignity.”
The Gray Tide: Latin America’s Demographic Transformation
A perfect storm of plunging birth rates and rapidly aging populations will break over Latin America in coming decades. Is there a silver lining?
Latin America’s Demographic Transformation by the Numbers
A deeper look at the shift’s nuances and impact on pensions and day-to-day life
To Manage Latin America’s Demographic Shifts, Support Women
The changes underway are the result of largely positive trends, although governments can do more to handle the transition.
The Intertwined Dynamics of Demographics and Race
Stark racial inequalities are affecting birth rates throughout Latin America, but the topic is critically understudied.
How Aging Societies Are Putting Greater Pressure on Women
Care for the elderly is falling disproportionately to women, affecting careers and family planning.
