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Mexico 2018: Can AMLO Really Get to 20 Million Votes?

A question institutional investors often ask regarding Mexico’s presidential elections next year is: Can Andrés Manuel López Obrador actually win? Most polls do indeed put the leftist former mayor of Mexico City, known popularly by his initials, AMLO, ahead of hypothetical adversaries today. But the road to the 20 million votes he likely needs to … Read more

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The One Big Trend in Latin America’s Coming Elections

“Anybody who tells you they know who will win is misinformed,” a Mexican political analyst recently told me in a debate about next year’s presidential elections. In a scenario where only 2 percent of Mexicans trust political parties and only 4 percent believe the country is on the right track, she said, anything can happen. … Read more

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Could Hurricane Maria Force a Change in Puerto Rico’s Relationship to the U.S.?

Hurricane Maria, which devastated Puerto Rico, was the third major storm to hit the U.S. in a month. It followed fast in the wake of Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma, which concentrated their damage on Florida and Texas. Their quick succession highlighted the vast differences between Washington’s response to a disaster that hit the commonwealth, … Read more

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Claudia López: Colombia’s 2018 Elections Are About Who Can Defeat Corruption

Claudia López isn’t one to be shy. In 20 years of public life – as a student leader, a journalist, and now as senator for Colombia’s Green Party – the 47-year-old has earned a reputation for speaking her mind, particularly when it comes to corruption in politics. Now a candidate for presidential elections in 2018, … Read more

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Why Are Latin America’s Right-Wing Governments Struggling?

Since the commodity boom ended four years ago, right-wing presidents are becoming the norm in Latin America. But their performance in office has been anything but stellar. Why? And what can these governments do to recover before it’s too late? After a decade in which most countries in Latin America were ruled by left-wing governments, … Read more

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Why We Need a NAFTA for the Digital Age

When the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was originally negotiated in 1994, four out of five of the largest U.S. companies built automobiles. Google, Facebook and Amazon hadn’t been born. E-commerce, as such, didn’t exist.  That’s part of why NAFTA renegotiations are more than just a political football: they are imperative for the region … Read more

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China’s Strategic Play in Brazil

China’s $1 trillion plan to remake the global order astonishes not only for its audacious scale, but also its geographic reach. The “One Belt, One Road” initiative is the backbone of a transformative geopolitical and economic agenda. President Xi Jinping’s brand of globalization dispenses with the old liberal order and is bending international trade in the country’s favor. The plan involves massive infrastructure projects in over 60 … Read more

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After Earthquake, Mexicans Vent Anger at Their Political Class

When Avelino Mendez, a local political leader, stopped by San Gregorio Altapulco to inspect the damage done by last week’s severe earthquake, he expected to find the southern Mexico City community grieving for its 13 dead. They were mourning. But they were also irate, and chased the portly chief of the Xochimilco borough through the … Read more

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Brazil’s Unpredictable 2018 Election: What Investors Should Watch For

This week, we saw the clearest proof yet that Brazil’s extraordinarily unpredictable 2018 presidential election is going to be a wild ride for investors. A poll by the National Transport Confederation (CNT, in Portuguese) put leftist former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the lead in all possible scenarios – assuming that his legal … Read more

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Attacks Against CICIG Show Why Guatemala Still Needs It

The International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) has been key in Guatemala’s fight against corruption. The UN-backed body has, over the past 10 years, taken on complex tasks that the state recognized could not be accomplished independently: It has investigated the operation of illegal security forces and illicit economic political networks; it has collaborated … Read more

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Guatemalans Ousted Their President In 2015. Now They’re After His Replacement.

This article has been updated. It took more than 20,000 protesters marching in the streets of Guatemala City to force then-President Otto Pérez Molina to resign and face corruption charges in 2015. Two years later, Pérez Molina is gone – but the thousands of anti-corruption protesters are back, and they’re taking aim at the new president, Jimmy … Read more

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It’s Time to Face NAFTA’s Jobs Myth

A third lightning round of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) talks begins in Ottawa on September 23. Negotiators reportedly made progress during the first two go-rounds in Washington and Mexico City, reaching tentative agreements on intellectual property, e-commerce, and environmental protections, likely following the general outlines hammered out within the Transpacific Partnership agreement, or … Read more

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After Irma, Cubans Are Ready to Get Back to Business

Hurricane Irma was expected to largely skirt Cuba, sweeping over the eastern tip of the island before barreling toward Florida. Instead, the monstrous storm practically ran the length of the nation, leaving a path of destruction along the northern coast. This was the first time the eye of a category five storm reached the island … Read more

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How Mexico’s Anti-Corruption Fight Went Off-Track

Eighteen months ago, I wrote in AQ about the success of Mexico’s citizen-driven corruption fight in Congress. Civil society groups, academics and activists had pushed for the rejection of a watered-down anti-corruption bill and instead presented their own, sharpened version of the legislation. This citizen’s bill, called #Ley3de3 (or #Law3of3) promised not only to help identify, … Read more

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In Irma Recovery, Caribbean Islands on Unequal Footing

As Hurricane Irma blew through the Caribbean last week, it passed over a mishmash of full-fledged nations, overseas territories, and quasi-independent jurisdictions that reflect the varied legacies of colonial powers. The storm treated them with a vicious caprice – sparing some and devastating others – that to a large degree will determine where humanitarian and … Read more